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November 2009
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So after 8 weeks of the NFL season, we have a pretty good idea of what's going on, right? The Saints, Colts, and Vikings are very good. There are a bunch of teams that area really, really bad. And then a whole lot of teams somewhere in between. But it's interesting to look back at where we were a year ago at this time. Washington began the 2008 season 6-2 (they finished 8-8). Buffalo was 5-2 (finished 7-9). Green Bay started 4-3 (finished 6-10). Cincinnati started 0-8, then went 4-3-1 in their last 8 games. Indianapolis was 3-4 before winning its last 9 games. San Diego was 3-5 but ended up making the playoffs at 8-8 and upsetting Indy in the first round. Tennessee looked like the best team in football at 7-0; the Titans lost their first playoff game to Baltimore. Ditto for the Giants - they started 6-1, won the division, then lost at home to Philly in the playoffs. And then you have the Eagles -- they would have missed the playoffs entirely had Tampa Bay won a home game against Oakland in the season finale; instead, the Eagles end up in the NFC championship game. The point is, we know some things about the 2009 season, but we don't know everything. That's why it's way too early to declare that New Orleans and Indianapolis are headed to the Super Bowl. And that's also why December is so important in this league (and obviously why Cowboys fans who know the team's recent history are cautiously optimistic about how things are going this season). Part of the reason why teams can go from being a league darling to missing the playoffs, is because there's really no such thing as momentum in the NFL. The games are spread too far apart. Every game is its own entity. That's why it's not terribly uncommon to see what happened to Tampa Bay last year - after a 9-3 start, they lost their last 4 and missed the playoffs. Opposite for the Colts, who won their last 9. On a game-by-game basis, any team can lose or win on any given Sunday (sorry for the cliche'). Looking at the Cowboys in particular, we all know why these early-to-mid season games are so important; December looms. Their five games in the final month: at NYG, vs. San Diego, at New Orleans, at Washington, and home to Philly. Looking at each game individually, you can see how Dallas could win each of those games, and they could lose each of those games. So for Dallas, their nice 5-2 start is important both because they are piling up wins early, giving them some margin for error in December. But as Bill Parcells said, the most important thing is to just get into the tournament. |
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