Count me out on the Broncos. Despite their 4-0 start, and despite the league's best defense to this point (6 points per game), I'm not jumping on the bandwagon. And Kyle Orton is the reason why.

As a Bears fan, I've watched a lot of Orton, and he's just not that good. What he's done to this point (5 TD's, 0 INT's) is the absolute best he can do -- and the Broncos are still 4-0 by a razor-thin margin. The "immaculate deflection" in week 1 against Cincinnati produced a last-second, 87-yard touchdown to win that game 12-7. Last week, Brandon Marshall made an incredible individual play to win that game (although Denver might have driven for the winning field goal even without Marshall's heroics).

Last year, Orton made me a believer ... at least for the first half of the season. I really thought he was on his way to being a solid NFL quarterback. His 2008 numbers in Chicago:

Games 1-7: 143-230 (62.2%), 238 yards per game, 10 TDs, 4 INTs

Games 10-16: 121-221 (54.8%), 171 yards per game, 8 TDs, 8 INTs

*Orton was knocked out of Chicago's 8th game with an ankle injury, and then missed their next one.

There were a couple times during the second half of the season where Orton would throw to a receiver running a post pattern, but the safety from the opposite side was in position to either knock it down or pick it off -- Orton never saw him. That's when I started thinking he might be limited.

I don't want to discredit what the Broncos have done to this point, because this is a results-driven league, and as Bill Parcells would say "you are what you are." But we can't go overboard either. In the NFL there are so many games that could go either way, and the Broncos have done a great job of making sure the plays have gone their way.

The Broncos are providing one of the fascinating storylines of the 2009 season so far. But the law of averages is going to catch up - Denver is going to allow more than 6 points per game, and Kyle Orton is not going to continue playing as efficiently as he is now.

Keep in mind - an NFL season can turn on a dime. Just last year, Tampa Bay started 9-3 before losing 4 in a row to miss the playoffs. Indianapolis was 3-4 before winning their final 9 games. Miami began 0-2 and ended up winning the division with an 11-5 record. So what Denver is now - and what a lot of teams are now - can change very quickly.

1 Comments

Brian Everhart said:

They are not 4 and 0. As a Bengals fan I refuse to acknowledge Stokley's fluke catch. Never happened!!

As far as Orton. He is not a great QB....but I think he is knocked a lot yet at the end of the day....he wins more than he loses. Are numbers important or W's? Check his win/loss record against the Bears savior's record and most would be shocked.

He is not a top caliber QB for sure....but as a White Sox fan, I firmly believe in "Winning Ugly".

October 8, 2009 4:14 PM

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