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March 2009
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Just a few hours before kickoff, I had a few thoughts about the game... Normally, when a great offense plays a great defense, the defensive team wins. It's like baseball -- good pitching almost always beats good hitting. Florida's defense ranks 7th in the nation; Oklahoma's is 62nd. The disparity between offenses isn't nearly as much: the Gators are rank 19th in total offense, while OU is third. But by far the Sooners were #1 in scoring; they were the only team to average more than 50 points per game (54). But here is a list of the teams they played, along with that team's final rankings in total defense (out of 119 total I-A teams). Tennessee-Chattanooga (111 - in Division I-AA) The Big 12 has several teams in the bottom half of the defensive rankings, but that may be a product of all the good offenses they faced (five Big 12 teams ranked in the top 10 in the NCAA in total offense). So then the question is, why were the Big 12 offenses so good? Was it because the conference's defenses were so bad, or because the offenses were simply that good? And another thing to consider is this: the top teams in the Big 12 have either lost, or struggled to win their bowl games. Of the 6 teams from the Big 12 who have played bowl games so far, only two have covered the point spread, Kansas and Nebraska, and those were the last two teams to qualify for a bowl. The top 4 teams (excluding Oklahoma) have not covered a spread yet, and two of them lost (Texas Tech and Oklahoma State). So for tonight's game, I'm going with defense. Give me Florida. |
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