Now Gustav has company. There is a disturbance in the Bay of Campeche, another Tropical Storm, Hanna, behind Gustav and two waves emerging off the West Coast of Africa that bear watching. We're heading toward the peak of the season and things are really picking up.

First things first, though.

Gustav took an odd track last night, heading west away from Haiti and then south (!) toward Jamaica. While Jamaica has mountainous terrain; it's not as steep as the Haitian landscape, so the storm may not break up in Jamaica as much as it did over Haiti.

The forecast track keeps changing:

This afternoon's track has it heading toward the Cayman Islands tomorrow where it will likely intensify to a Category 1 hurricane before heading for the gap between the Yucatan Peninsula and the western end of Cuba. From there, it should strengthen as it enters the very warm Gulf of Mexico into a Category 3 storm.

As you can see from above, the water temperatures there are approaching 90 degrees. The storm will also likely pass over the loop current, where 2005's Katrina, Rita and Wilma all strengthened.

The track's uncertainty is based on computer models' inability to predict which of the steering influences will be the strongest by early next week. Will high pressure north of the storm strengthen and push it westward toward us, or will a weak cool front passing across the middle of the country nudge it closer to Louisiana.

The fact that the "cone of uncertainty includes the Texas coast down to Victoria has a lot of people nervous. Remember that the cone position will change and become narrower once the storm is in the Gulf and we have a better handle on where it might go from there. Also remember that the track will change over the next few days. Just be prepared and aware of what's going on. Also, consider signing up for WeatherCall; this service will make sure you stay informed of any changes to the storm's path this weekend and storm warnings in the future.

4 Comments

Leta said:

I seem to remember that Dr. Neil advised that if you are not in the mandatory evac zone and you feel you can weather the storm at home, then you should batten down the hatches and stay there; making sure you have the necessary supplies you need and that everything outside is tied down or brought in. Am I on the right track? Cat 3 storms are nothing to play with and I know that first hand!

August 29, 2008 7:36 AM

Cynthia Johnson said:

Is there any reason why 77486 is not in the evacuation list. We are in the cosatl area. Will we be allowed to leave when we should???

August 29, 2008 7:52 AM

brandon said:

i like bad not h in texas

brandon

August 29, 2008 4:59 PM

Joeletta said:

I have a hurricane question, but I can't seem to figure out where to ask it. So I'm placing it here. If anyone knows the answer GREAT or just point me to where I should load my question.
Question: As I understand the names of Hurricanes are pretty much in alpha order. There was Edward (E) then Faye (F), we're finishing up with Gustav (G), we see Hanna (H), Ike is in the water (I) and then there is TEN (T). What happened to J,K,L, etc?

September 2, 2008 8:46 AM

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