Carl Arredondo: August 2008 Archives
4:35 PM Sun, Aug 31, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
Some good news. Gustav is still a category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph. Some strengthening is possible, but Gustav may not get back to a category 4 before landfall. It is also moving faster at 18 mph to the northwest. There isn't much time or water left for it to get a lot stronger. Location 26.4N 87.3W or 215 miles from the mouth of t...
1:16 PM Sun, Aug 31, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
Now down to 115 mph sustained winds and still a category 3 hurricane. There is still a possible strengthening time frame, but the window is closing as it is moving fast and running out of water before reaching landfall.
It is moving to the NW at 17 mph. It is at 25.9N 86.6W or 270 miles from the mouth of the River.
A new forecast track will come out at 4pm.
...
10:20 AM Sun, Aug 31, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
Gustav remains a category 3 hurricane with winds of 120 mph. It is located at 25.3N 86.0W or 325 miles SE of the mouth of the river. Movement is to the NW at 17 mph.
Dry air and shear on the western side has caused the weakening during the early morning hours, but the NHC still expects strengthening to a category 4 later t...
7:38 PM Fri, Aug 29, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
Wind are up to 80 mph with Gustav about 25 miles south of the Islands of the Little Cayman. 19.3N 80.0 with movement at 11 mph.
A category 3 hurricane is still expected in the Gulf of Mexico. There was a slight shift to the left or west at the 4pm advisory from NHC, but SE Louisiana would still be on the worst side.
A possible storm surge of 9-12' could affect Terrebonne parish east to the mouth of the River.
S...
4:27 PM Fri, Aug 29, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
Hurricane Gustav is about 100 miles east of Grand Cayman with winds of 75 mph. Gustav will become a major hurricane and threaten the LA coast late Monday or Early Tuesday morning as possibly a Category 3 hurricane. It may be stronger.
The forecast from NHC has shifted to the left or west slightly, but may continue to shift one way or the other over the weekend. Everyone should continue with plans if you are told to or want to...
9:54 PM Thu, Aug 28, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
A change in the 10pm advisory from the NHC is a slight shift in the track. Gustav is located at 17.8N 77.3W or 35 miles wsw of Kingston, Jamaica. It is still moving west at 7 mph.
Gustav is still expected to be a Category 3 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico and approaching the coast of Louisiana. By 7pm Monday, Gustav could be south of Terrebonne parish. The change in the track from NHC is that there is a shift to the left or ...
7:45 PM Thu, Aug 28, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
Gustav continues to move over Jamaica with winds of 70 mph. Location is 17.9N 77.0W or 15 miles west of Kingston. It is still moving west at 7 mph. Not much change expected in strength until Gustav moves away from the island.
The track remains the same with Louisiana in the middle of the cone of error. A category 3 hurricane may be in the ...
9:50 PM Wed, Aug 27, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
Some changes in the 10pm advisory. Gustav is more to the wsw of it's earlier position. Movement is wsw at 8 mph. Wind are at 45 mph and is at 18.8N 75.4W. The other change is the intensity during the next several days. It is expected to remain a tropical storm Thursday and a hurricane by 7pm Friday. Current NHC forecast keeps it as a Catego...
7:52 PM Wed, Aug 27, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
Gustav weakened even more at 7pm with winds down to 45 mph. Some drier air and the high mountains of Haiti have helped. It is about 65 miles SE of Guantanamo, Cuba moving west at 7mph.
Gustav is expected to strengthen on Thursday back to hurricane strength. Unfortunately, there are still great uncertainty in the future track past Satur...
10:02 PM Tue, Aug 26, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
Gustav has weakened to a tropical storm as it moved across the peninsula of Haiti. Gustav has winds of 70 mph, but will strengthen again overnight or in the morning. Gustav is at 18.6N 73.6W or 85 miles west of Port Au Prince, Haiti or 150 miles se of Guantanamo, Cuba. Movement is W/NW at 8 mph.
All interests from Texas to Florida need to pay...
3:57 PM Tue, Aug 26, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
Gustav weakens alittle over the southwest peninsula of Haiti. Winds are 75 mph, but will increase again when it moves back over water tonight.
Gustav is located at 18.4N 73.2W or 60 miles w/sw of Port Au Prince, Haiti. Movement is NW at 10 mph.
The Gulf of Mexico will be impacted by Gustav by Saturday night or Sunday morning in ...
1:10 PM Tue, Aug 26, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
Hurricane Gustav makes landfall on the SW peninsula of Haiti about 10 miles west of Jacmel. At 1pm, it is located at 18.2N 72.8W or 40 miles SW of Port Au Prince. Winds are 90 mph with a movement to the NW at 10mph.
There is much uncertainty in the forecast past 2-3 days. It will be a strong or major hurricane in the southern Gulf of Mexico s...
10:06 PM Mon, Aug 25, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
At 10pm, Gustav is stronger with winds of 70 mph and will likely become a hurricane on Tuesday. The present location is 16.6N 71.4W or 150 S/SE of Port Au Prince, Haiti moving NW at 12 mph. The models have many tracks with this system and different intensities. Present forecast from NHC has winds increasing to 90 mph at it's peak.
By Saturd...
4:44 PM Mon, Aug 25, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
TD #7 wasted no time going from a depression to Gustav at 4pm now located at 16.3N 71.0W or 180 miles south-southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti. Movement is to the NW at 14 mph with sustained winds of 60 mph.
Gustav is expected to continue to the NW and could become a hurricane in the Caribbean Sea. Future tracks take Gustav anywhere fro...
7:04 AM Sun, Aug 24, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
At Noon, the remnant of Fay is located east of near Jackson, MS. A large band of rain is rotating around Fay towards our area. A Flash Flood Watch is up until Tuesday morning for areas north of the lake and south of the lake and MS counties. 4-6" of rain is possible between now and Tuesday morning
A Wind Advisory is in effect for the southshore until 1am tonight for winds of 25-35 mph with higher gusts.
Be on the look...
10:48 PM Fri, Aug 22, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
A Tropical Storm watch is up from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the mouth of the River. This watch does not include Lake Pontchartrain and the city of New Orleans. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm condition can be expected withing 36 hrs.
At 10pm, Fay is located at 29.7N 84.2W or 50 miles east of Apalachicola moving west at 8 mph. The winds have increased to 50 mph because Fay is over Apalachee Bay. A w...
3:33 PM Fri, Aug 22, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
Fay is located at 29.8N 83.2W or 50 miles north of Cedar Key or 110 miles east of Apalachicola. Winds are at 45 mph and Fay is still moving west at 6mph. Fay may still be a Tropical Storm through Saturday afternoon as it moves over the extreme northern part of Apalachee Bay, then over the Florida panhandle. Fay weakens to a depression overnight Saturday over Pensacola then Fay tracks north of Mobile Bay to south Mississippi.
<...
9:48 PM Thu, Aug 21, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
At 10pm, the National Hurricane Center believes that Fay will remain a tropical storm through Saturday night before weakening. Fay is located at 29.3N 81.4W with winds still of 60 mph and a west movement of 2 mph. Fay may remain over the extreme NE Gulf of Mexico enough to keep it at tropical storm strength. Our big chance for rain if we get any will still be Sunday and Monday. The future track still has Fay to the north of SE Louis...
3:49 PM Thu, Aug 21, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
Fay has move back inland and is just west of Flagler Beach, FL. Fay came back onshore around 1:30pm central time. Fay is located at 29.4N 81.4W. Fay is now moving west at 5 mph with winds of 60 mph.
Fay may move over a small portion of the Gulf of Mexico Friday evening, but may not have enough time to strengthen before it moves back over the Florida panhandle. According to the National Hurricane Center, Fay should remain at ...
10:38 PM Wed, Aug 20, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
At 10pm, Fay is stationary about 35 miles e/se of Daytona Beach at 28.9N 80.5W with winds of 60 mph. There is a small chance that Fay may intensify a bit before making another landfall over the northern coast of FL.
Fay is expected to remain over land through the Florida panhandle. Friday morning has a small window that Fay could move out over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Most of the tracks keep Fay moving w/nw or nw and keeps Fa...
3:39 PM Wed, Aug 20, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
Heavy rain is the main concern over Florida with Fay. Unofficial amounts of over 20" have been reported. At 4pm, Fay was located 30 miles N/NE of Cape Canaveral at 28.8N 80.5W. Winds remain at 50 mph with movement to North at 2 mph.
It still appears that Fay will stay to our north and not come directly to us. Our impact may be breezy conditions and MAYBE an increase in the chance for rain on Sunday.
...
9:52 PM Tue, Aug 19, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
Finally some weakening in Fay. At 10pm Fay's winds are down to 50 mph and is located 30 miles S/SW of Melbourne, FL at 27.7N 80.7W. It still looks like Fay will move into the Atlantic and at some point on Thursday start moving back to the w/nw. It is uncertain still how far north Fay will get before it turns w/nw. We may have rains from what's left of Fay on Sunday & Monday. At this point, we should continue to watch the progress o...
3:47 PM Tue, Aug 19, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
At 6pm, TS Fay continues to hold at 65 mph sustained winds. Unlike normal tropical systems that start to weaken over land, Fay has not. Now Fay could become a hurricane once it moves over the Atlantic off the coast of Florida. Fay is located at 27.5N 80.9W or 45 miles S/SW of Melbourne, Florida.
Fay is still expected to stall later tomorrow then turn back towards the W/NW. Just how far west Fay goes is still uncertain. It d...
2:35 PM Tue, Aug 19, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
At 2pm, TS Fay was located 15 miles W/SW of Okeechobee, FL at 27.1N 81.1W. Movement is N/NE 8 mph with winds still at 65 mph.
It still appears that Fay will stall on Wednesday over NE Florida or off the coast of NE FL and may still move back towards the west or west/northwest. An organized tropical system will not affect us over SE Louisiana. It may be a rain maker if it makes it this far west. It still appears that it would...
10:46 PM Mon, Aug 18, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
At 10pm Monday evening, Tropical Storm Fay was located 60 miles south of Naples, FL at 25.3N 81.9W. Winds are 60 mph and the motion is N 9 mph. Fay will make landfall as a strong Tropical Storm or even a weak hurricane. Hurricane watches and warnings have been posted for South Florida. A track through Florida will continue, but on W...
3:48 PM Mon, Aug 18, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
At 4pm Tropical Storm Fay was located at 24.6N 81.9W or 145 miles S of Ft Myers, FL. Winds are 60 mph and Fay is moving N/NW 12 mph. Fay could strengthen a bit more before reaching the SW coast of FL.
Fay will continue to move northward through Florida and after Wednesday, there may a stalling of Fay over NE Florida or offshore Jacksonville. There is still much uncertainty from Friday on, but until then, this is no threat t...
2:13 PM Mon, Aug 18, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
A few spotty thunderstorms expected this Monday afternoon. Highs will be in low 90s. Rain chances for Tuesday will be 50% for scattered thunderstorms on Tuesday and highs around 90 or even upper 80s.
AT 2pm central, Fay has made landfall at Key West, Fl.
Fay at 1pm was located at 24.3N 81.6W or 20 SE of Key West, FL with sustained winds of 60 mph. Fay is moving N/NW at 14 mph. Fay could become a minimal hurricane b...
3:38 PM Fri, Aug 15, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
Tropical Storm Fay forms near Hispanola at 4pm. At 10pm, Fay is located 100 miles east of Port Au Prince, Haiti at 18.7n 70.8w. Winds are 45 mph and Fay is moving west at 14 mph. The forecast track has Fay moving west to w/nw then turning over Cuba to the north and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Fay is expected to become a hurricane. All interests in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor Fay. For us in SE Louisia...
3:48 PM Thu, Aug 14, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
Thursday's drier air will slowly go away with overnight conditions expected to become a bit more humid. Thunderstorms may still hang around coastal areas overnight and on Friday morning.
Friday will be more humid and hot with isolated thunderstorms around. Rain chances increase to 60% on Saturday and 50% on Sunday.
Hurricane hunters flew into the disturbance near the Leeward Islands and did not find that a tropical dep...
3:01 PM Wed, Aug 13, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
The rain has ended over SE Louisiana and Mississippi. Now slightly drier air will begin to move in overnight. Lows north of the lake will drop down into the upper 60s and low 70s south of the lake.
For Thursday, not as humid, but hot. Any rain chance will be 10% along the coast. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s. Also..
The Louisiana Department of environmental quality is forecasting an OZONE ACTION DAY for ...
2:29 PM Tue, Aug 12, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
The Tornado Watch was cancelled at 7pm Tuesday evening. Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible overnight and through Wednesday early afternoon.
Hurricane hunters did not find a depression in the area east of the Lesser Antilles. This system may develop in the next day or two and will be watched. A westward track is expected and would bring this system towards the Florida straits. IF this system got into the Gulf, if ma...
2:57 PM Mon, Aug 11, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
Before dawn Tuesday morning is the best time to see the peak of the Perseid Meteor shower. However sky conditions overnight and the chance for rain may make the viewing tough. The moon sets at 2:23am, so the sky should be dark, but getting away from the city lights is better. For more information on the meteor shower see Perseid Meteor Shower >> Continue reading: Perseid Meteor Shower
6:08 PM Fri, Aug 08, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
Heavy rainfall was south of the city with Houma picking up 4.43" and 2.44" at Raceland. Some drier air will move in overnight and make Saturday feel not as humid, but still hot. Highs on Saturday will be in the lower 90s with a 20% chance for a thunderstorm. Morning lows will feel nice north of the lake in the morning in the 60s.
...
5:39 PM Thu, Aug 07, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
On Saturday, the air may not be as humid as some slightly drier air moves in. Before then, this Thursday night may have thunderstorms before and after midnight with rain chances 30% then increasing to 60% Friday for showers & thunderstorms..some with downpours as a weak front approaches as soon as mid morning Friday.
Some slightly drier air may move in on Saturday with rain chances at 30%. By Sunday, rain chances go to 40% a...
8:56 PM Wed, Aug 06, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
Kick off in Glendale, AZ Thursday will be around 105 degrees with the temperatures falling to the 90s during the game. Any rain chance will be 10-20% with a W/SW wind at 6-12 mph.
BUT IT'S A DRY HEAT RIGHT?
...
4:42 PM Tue, Aug 05, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
Rain chances below average for Wednesday & Thursday with highs in the low to mid 90s. Rain chance Wednesday at 20% and 30% on Thursday.
Edouard is a depression as of 4pm Tuesday and will continue to weaken.
...
10:34 PM Mon, Aug 04, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
At 10pm, Edouard stengthens to 60 mph sustained winds located 105 miles south of Lafayette. The storm is moving to the WNW at 8 mph. Landfall is expected at the upper Texas coast or even SW Louisiana is possible.
Tropical Storm warnings continue from Grand Isle westward. The tropical storm warning has been dropped from Grand Isle to the mouth of the River.
Rain continues along our coast from Lower Jefferson parish...
5:07 PM Mon, Aug 04, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.4 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...220 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA AND ABOUT
215 MILES...350 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECT TO OCCUR TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF ...
6:54 PM Sun, Aug 03, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
Tropical Depression #5 forms 85 miles SE of the mouth of the River. This system may continue to strengthen to TS Edouard tonight or Monday. A Tropical Storm warning is up from the mouth of the River west to Vermilion Bay. This system is expect to remain offshore and not have a direct impact on SE Louisiana. An increase in the chance for rain for Monday and higher than normal tides are expected. A Coastal Flood Watch is up for tonig...
7:55 AM Sun, Aug 03, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING ...
2:06 PM Fri, Aug 01, 2008 | Permalink
Carl Arredondo
|
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
150 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TIMBERLANE...MARRERO...HARVEY...
SOUTHWESTERN ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...<...
