Well, Dolly seems to be getting a little better organized, now that she is in the southern Gulf. The latest track has not shifted much, although most of the spaghetti models now point to a landfall in southern Texas. To see the latest models, click here. The NHC's track has landfall as a Cat 1 along the Texas/Mexico border.

Things to consider: the center of Dolly is still organizing and forming, so some bobbles with the track may occur over the next 24 hours. Also, water temperatures in the GOM are warmer in the northern Gulf than in the Bay of Campeche. Right now Dolly is forecast to stay a Cat 1 storm, but if she travels over the warmer water, rapid strengthening is possible. Remember that the intensity forecast for a tropical cyclone is still the hardest to nail.

Bottom line for SE Louisiana: We are not in the cone of uncertainty now, and there is nothing that should cause alarm. Right now the most we would see from Dolly is higher surf, breezy winds, and a greater chance for rain Tuesday and Wednesday.

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