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March 2008
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Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a low level circulation the National Hurricane Center is now calling Subtropical Depression #10. Right now, we are expecting the possibility of locally heavy rain, winds up to 40 miles per hour and tidal flooding along coastal parishes. Basically, hurricane hunter aircraft found a very poorly defined center of a subtropical storm. Subtropical storms are so-called because they aren't "warm" core storms like hurricanes. The storm has to become fully tropical before it can really intensify. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 miles per hour. Some strengthening is forecast. However, most of the thunderstorm activity is well to the east of the storm, and is moving over Florida. There are two scenarios: Two: If the center of the storm tracks farther to the West, we could have some locally heavy rainfall... winds up to 40 miles per hour. Here's the latest from the NHC: ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF AT 10 AM ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE AT 1000 AM THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 N...85.5 W. MOVEMENT AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE $$ |
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