10pm coordinates: 16.2 N, 71.7 W, moving west at 17 miles per hour, about 360 miles ESE of Kingston, Jamaica.

The track forecast has shifted just a tad farther to the south, possibly sparing portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cancun. The discussion from the National Hurricane Center has even more confidence in the forecast, for a couple of reasons. That upper level low that was forecast to move west is already in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for high pressure to settle in behind in over Florida and the eastern gulf. Dean is moving along the southern periphery of that high... and as the high expands westward, Dean is forecast to follow that track into Mexico. We will have another update at 4am when the NHC issues a new track.