I've gotten some good questions about the different forecast models that we use in the Weather Center to make our forecasts. We use several different models, with some weighing in better than others. For example, the GFS model (Global Forecast System) is usually good in handling this moisture coming from the Southern Branch of the jetstream in the long term. We also look at other models, like the NGM (Nested Grid Model), the Eta, RUC, UKMET, Euro (European), Canadian and such. You may remember these terms from hurricane season, these are also the models we use to forecast a storms' track. We look at these models each day, and they can vary widely from each other. We try to come to a consensus with all the data we look at, also taking into consideration each model's biases. These models are only as good as the data being fed into them, and sometimes they can be WAY wrong. So, we try to figure out what is most likely to happen, and that becomes our forecast.

Thanks for asking!

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