New tropical depression has formed just east of the Windward Islands...moving to the west. The NHC forecast track has it progressing into the Northwest Caribbean and then possibly into the gulf next week. The forecast intensity puts it at a strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane by next Tuesday. Remember a lot can change with these forecasts, especially the intensity forecast.

Official statement from the NHC at 4pm:

...FIFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THOUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST OR ABOUT 155
MILES...250 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...AND A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...RAIN BANDS TRAILING THE CENTER WILL BE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS TONIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

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