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March 2008
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August 2006 Archives
Many don't remember, but one of the strongest hurricanes to hit the United States occured on Labor Day of 1935. The storm hit the Florida Keys on September 2, 1935. The storm had sustained winds of 185 mph, and has the third lowest pressure on record for the Atlantic Basin (Wilma-882mb, Gilbert-888mb, Labor Day FL Keys-892mb) Over 400 people were killed from the storm, and nearly every structure near the town of Islamorada was ... Ernesto has gained a little strength out over the warm Atlantic waters today. He is expected to make landfall as a strong tropical storm, but some gusts could be near hurricane strength, so a hurricane watch has been posted for portions of North and South Carolina. No significant change in intensity is expected. 10 AM Coordinates: A nice weather pattern is setting up for the Labor Day Holiday with lots of sunshine, lower humidity, and dry through much of the weekend. Highs will be seasonable, in the upper 80's to around 90, with lows in the mid 60's north of the lake to the lower 70's south. ...I think were all going to enjoy this weekend, one of the best that we've had in a long time. It will remind us that fall is just around the corner. This morning, storms developed earlier, putting down some very heavy rain west of the metro area. Still looking at some showers and storms mainly this morning, then a cold front will move through later today. Temperatures today in the lower 90's, followed by upper 80's to aroun... Ernesto hasn't gained strength as it approaches South Florida. The center of Ernesto is located about 15 miles S/SW of Key Largo or 65 miles S/SW of Miami with winds of 45 mph. Ernesto will continue northward through south-central Florida with rain and the possibility of tornadoes. ...
A front is moving towards SE Louisiana today and through on Wednesday. A 30-40% chance for thunderstorms will continue this evening through the first part of Wednesday then drier air ... Tropical Storm Ernesto remains a weak storm, but is trying to intensify south of the Florida. Outer rainbands are beginning to effect south Florida. The overall track has not changed much in the last 36hours, with a general movement to the N/NW, impacting south Florida later today, then crossing Florida and moving up the eastcoast. Winds are at 45mph, moving NW at 13mph, remaining a tropical storm through landfall in about 12-... Many decisions were made a year ago based on what we saw in the Gulf of Mexico. Evacuations of families were made on that Sunday because here is what we were seeing off our coast. 4am: Category 4 winds of 145 mph, 275 miles S/SE of mouth of the River
At 4pm, Tropical Storm Ernesto is located just inland over eastern Cuba with 40 mph sustained winds. Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the eastern coast of Florida and Keys. Ernesto is no threat to SE Louisiana. SE Louisiana will see scattered thunderstorms on Tuesday with the approach of a front. Drier air will filter in Wednesday through the end of the week as Ernesto travels up the East Coast. ...The center (or what remains of the center) of Ernesto is over Cuba, in an area that is very mountainous and not very friendly to tropical cyclones. The storm has weakened down to 40 mph, making it a weak tropical storm. It could even weaken back into a depression before making it back over open water. Here are the 1pm coordinates: 20.7N, 76.1W A new track will ... Tropical Storm Ernesto has weakened while crossing Cuba this morning. Winds are now 40mph moving NW near 10mph. A Hurricane watch remains in effect for south Florida, and now has been extended to eastern areas of Florida. This storm is likely to become a hurricane before impacting Florida, Tuesday and Wednesday. ...Ernesto remains a tropical storm this morning, with winds near 50mph, moving NW at around 16mph. This storm will cross Cuba, possibly further weakening it depending on how long it remains over land, then emerge in the Florida Straits where water temperatures are in the mid to upper 80's. Ernesto will then continue his northerly track into south Florida, either the Gulf coast or Atlantic side by Wednesday. ...Ernesto weakens more this evening, hurricane hunter aircraft shows a maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour as of 7pm our time. However, warm water between Haiti and Cuba could allow the storm to intensify overnight and into tomorrow morning. Latest satellite images show signs of improvement in the storms organization. However, this could be short lived as Ernesto then interacts with terrain over Cuba. Intensity forecasts may vary over t... Watching satellite imagery this afternoon, and receiving latest update from National Hurricane Center, Ernesto has been downgraded to a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour. Ernesto had trouble maintaining itself over the mountainous terrain of Haiti. Three day track forecasts continue to take Ernesto over the southern Florida Peninsula. The intensity will vary as the storm is expected to move over open water and th... Upper level shear to the west of Ernesto eroded as the models predicted, and the storm has now intensified into a hurricane. The National Hurricane Center has Ernesto becoming a major hurricane as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico and then makes landfall north of Tampa Florida. Computer models were in better agreement this morning as far as an upper level low over the United States guiding the storm on a more easterly track next week. All resid... Latest models continue to push Ernesto toward the Florida Panhandle. Upper level shear provided by upper low in central Caribbean Sea has moved to the west, allowing the storm to continue on west northwesterly path toward Haiti, Jamaica and the south-central portion of Cuba. All interests along the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor this storm. ...As of 4 o'clock Saturday, the National Hurricane Center has moved the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto to the east. Ernesto strengthened slightly despite battling shear to its west. The storm is still expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico late Monday or Tuesday as a hurricane. The current NHC track has the storm making landfall near the Florida Panhandle. Several factors will come into play as the storm moves closer to the gulf. Residents in SE... Heavy thunderstorms are causing urban street flooding in the New Orleans metro area. Expect these to continue to move into New Orleans East and over the twin spans through 4pm. Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to move toward the WNW at 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour. Rapid intensification of the system is not expected this weekend as upper level winds are not favorable for development in the next 24 hours. How... Ernesto's winds have increased alittle to 45 mph, but the center of circulation is exposed from the thunderstorms. Shearing is still affecting Ernesto. Another Hurricane Hunter will be in Ernesto overnight tonight. Ernesto will encounter upper level winds that are hostile for the next 2 days. If Ernesto survives that, then strengthening is expected. All interests in the Central and Western Gulf of Mexico needs to watch the progress of Ern... As of 4pm central, a hurricane hunter has found tropical storm force winds, and has upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm Ernesto. Coordinates: The current track puts Ernesto in the gulf of Mexico early next week as a minimal hurricane. ...The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center keeps this system as a depression. It still remains disorganized to prevent it from becoming a tropical storm this morning. There still remains the potential for strengthening into a tropical storm this afternoon. The forecast over the next five days has it staying a west northwest course with strengthening... TD #5 has sustained winds of 35 mph and is expected to gain strength to become Ernesto. The intensity forecast is uncertain due to a complicated upper air pattern with dry air and wind shear. The track forecast is alittle more certain. This will have to be watched because on Tuesday we may see this system in the southern or eastern Gulf of Mexico. On WWLTV.COM go to the Hurricane Section and click Tropical Storm Advisories and you can find... New tropical depression has formed just east of the Windward Islands...moving to the west. The NHC forecast track has it progressing into the Northwest Caribbean and then possibly into the gulf next week. The forecast intensity puts it at a strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane by next Tuesday. Remember a lot can change with these forecasts, especially the intensity forecast. Official statement from the NHC at 4pm: ... This was just issued from the NHC about the area of disturbed weather just east of the windward islands. It looks like the hurricane hunters have found a closed surface low, and will upgrade the system to either a Tropical Depression or a Tropical Storm at 4pm this afternoon. If it is a TD, it would be TD #5, and if it is a TS, it would be named Ernesto. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN... Question posted on the blog: Well, the upper level low tracking across the gulf will bring showers and storms to SELA today and tomorrow, but it is unlikely that it would develop into something tropical. An upper level low pressure system has a "cold core" (center), that extends high into the upper atmosphere. A tropical low is formed differently, with a closed "wa... Our wet pattern will continue today and through the next few days, with lots of moisture combined with a frontal boundary to our north, and an upper-level low pressure system in the Gulf. Most of the rain will be developing during the afternoon with the greatest instability occuring with the heating of the day. Heavy rain and gusty winds can be expected with some of the storms. ...As we near the one year anniversary of Katrina, we thought we would share some memorable information or events that led up to the landfall of Katrina. I found this Urgent Message sent by our local National Weather Service on Sunday, August 28th at 4:30 pm. It is particularly ominous to read what they were predicting would happen to the Greater New Orleans area. As we know, they were far too accurate with this forecast. URGENT -... Still a 50% chance for scattered showers or thunderstorms the remainder of this afternoon. This will be the pattern for the next few days. Rain chances slightly higher for Thursday at 60% then 50% through the weekend. So anyway you look at it, daily thunderstorms will continue. any one of them could be heavy. Highs will be closer to normal upper 80's to lower 90's. Debby has weakened alittle as of the 4pm advisory, but still cou... Our 4th named stormed is now Debby. Debby is 300 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands off Africa. Slow strengthening is expected and Debby is expected to remain over the Atlantic ocean during the next 5 days. ...OK, what is the difference? Pinpoint Doppler on wwltv.com is Channel 4's own radar. That is what you see live on Channel 4. The radar is owned by us and the tower is located in Gretna. When you see Pinpoint Doppler on Channel 4, that is where the rain is happening right then. Pinpoint Doppler on wwltv.com is not live, but updates probably more frequently than any other radar on the web. Since the tower is located in Gretna, you will see ... A fairly wet pattern is setting up for the remainder of the work-week, with widespread showers and storms expected to pop-up during the day. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightnening will be possible with the stronger storms. ...There is a hoax going around through emails and the internet about Mars being as large as a full moon. Mike Sandras of the Pontchartrain Astromomy society says to see Mars Hoax for more info. ...The strong system off the coast has become Tropical Depression #4. It is about 250 miles from the Cape Verde Islands or 4523 miles from New Orleans. This system may become Tropical Storm Debby overnight tonight or Tuesday morning. At this time, TD #4 is expected to remain out in the Atlantic ocean over the next 5 days. ...Thunderstorms will be scattered about the rest of this afternoon. some could be the usual heavy summer thunderstorm. Rain chances will be around 50% for the next 3 days and that will help a bit with high temperatures..so not as hot with highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's. A disturbance in the Caribbean will have to be watched for some development, but again the upper conditions in the gulf may keep this system away for louisiana a... Showers and t'storms have blown up today in the SW Caribbean Sea, prompting a closer look at the area. Upper level winds are not as conducive for development, so any development would be slow to occur. Water temps are certainly warm enough for something tropical to generate, but it is not anticipated in the next 2-3 days at least. Some models have hinted at something in the gulf next week, but you have to remember that these models ca... It looks like we'll have another scorching hot day with little rain. High pressure is keeping things hot and relatively dry. As of this morning, a few showers were on Pinpoint radar just off the coast of Terrebonne parish, but that was it. As the day wears on, and temperatures rise, we'll see a few more storms around, about the same as yesterday. Biggest concern will be the heat index...we'll be in the Danger category today (Heat index... The rain showers and storms will be few and far between through the weekend, with drier air moving in the next few days. Isolated showers will produce locally heavy, but should end during the evening. ...In Shreveport for the Cowboys vs Saints game. 7pm kickoff should see temperatures starting in the 90's then falling to the 80's. Rain chance 20%. ...Late afternoon thunderstorms have blossomed over SELA, mainly south of Lake Ponchartrain. As of 3pm, we don't have any watches or warnings, but some of these storms could produce brief gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and lightning. Downtown New Orleans will see a thunderstorm through 3:30 pm, and another thunderstorm was near Armstrong International Airport. These storms will continue through the early evening hours, until sunse... An easterly flow is bringing spotty thunderstorms from east to west. Some downpours will be seen between 2:30pm and sunset. Rain chances will continue below normal due to an upper high to our north. 20-30% for the weekend with mid 90's in the afternoon. Just a reminder, even though the rain chance may be 20-30%, any thunderstorm may become strong with the heating. Another upper low map increase the thunderstorm activity on Monday. You can now use MyRadar to zoom in closer to your area. With the help of Carl Arredondo and designer Steve McCauley, we now have four additional My Radar views to include points centered around Thibodaux, Port Sulphur, Folsom and Metairie. Carl selected these views to allow us to cover all of the metro area in one or more of those views. They also have more listings of the smaller highways and roads than does the wider ... The moisture will remain in the gulf and along the coast today and through the weekend, limiting our chances of rain. Temperatures will remain above normal as well, with highs in the mid 90's and heat indices from near 105-110. ...More heat with a few thunderstorms. Rain chances Friday through the weekend looks to be around 30%. An increase to 50% may occur on Monday & Tuesday. The area of low pressure off the South/North Carolina coast may still develop before it moves inland, but a hurricane hunter was canceled today. The peak of the hurricane season is Sept 10th so we are entering the busy time of the season. ...Additional moisture should increase our chances of rain through the next few days which should limit the heat. It will be tough to keep the high temps away for very long, with the overall weather pattern not changing much. High pressure will remain strong next week with those high 90's returning. ...Tangipahoa parish has a severe thunderstorm warning until 4:45pm. Livingston parish has a severe thunderstorm warning until 5pm. Strong winds of 60 mph or greater, small hail, frequent lightning, and brief heavy rain can be expected. ...Most thunderstorms so far this afternoon have been from Baton Rouge south to Morgan City. These storms are moving west. Hail was reported in Morgan City at 2:30pm. There may still be some thunderstorms developing before sunset. Rain chances for Thursday & Friday will be around 40% with low to mid 90's for highs. I expect rain chances to drop to 30% on Saturday and 20% on Sunday. Highs over the weekend may be mid to upper 90's. >> Continue reading: Wednesday Weather/Tropics According to the Climate Prediction Center, Southeast Louisiana is still under a severe to extreme drought. At Armstrong Int'l airport as of 3pm Wednesday August 16, there has been 4.22" of rain. That is 1.31" above normal. The year is very dry with 22.66" which is 19.50" below normal. ...A severe t'storm warning is in effect for Ascension and Iberville parishes until 3:45 pm. A severe t'storm was reported near White Castle, moving southwest at 20 mph. This storm is capable of producing nickel size hail, and strong gusty winds. This storm will be near Bayou Sorrel by 3:25 pm. ...High temperatures continue, with some records being threatened. With all of that heat building up throughout the day, some storms will fire up late in the afternoon. Additional moisture will be heading our way, with more rain and less heat by the end of the week. ...A Severe T'Storm warning has been issued for Tangipahoa parish until 6:30 pm This storm was located near Ponchatoula, and is moving west at 15 mph. A Severe T'Storm warning has been issued for Ascension and Assumption parishes until 6:30 p.m. This includes the cities of Sorrento and Go... A Severe Thunderstorm was issued until 5:15pm for St Tammany parish and Hancock county. The intense heat of today has sparked late afternoon thunderstorms. They are moving to the SW. Other thunderstorms are located upper Plaquemines and St Bernard parishes. Hail, strong gusty winds, and brief heavy rain is possible. ...The broad area of low pressure east of Florida and south of the Carolinas has changed little today. A hurricane hunter may go out there on Wednesday to investigate. Some development is possible, but the most likely track would take this system north towards South or North Carolina. An area of thunderstorms has developed south of the Louisiana coastline. This is associated with a surface trough or old front across the eastern Gulf of... Audubon reached a record high of 99 degrees. This breaks the old record of 97 last set in 1995. The heat index was 109. ...What else can we say besides HOT, HOT, HOT.........I'm sure your ready for a change, unfortunately, the only change we're going to see is a better chance of rain later this week. High temperatures running in the mid 90's the next few days with heat index values running near 105-110. ...Isolated thunderstorms have developed around the mouth of Lake Borgne and the Mississippi Gulf Coast. These storms are moving to the SW and may affect New Orleans east and St. Bernard parishes if they hold together. It is just hot and humid elsewhere. Not much change for Tuesday with rain chances around 30% and we could see a record high around Audubon for Tuesday. The record is 97 and we are looking for mid 90's. The record for Ar... Recon flight into tropical wave over Windward Isles canceled. Limited development of wave today. A non-tropical low east of Florida will be watch in the upcoming days for development. Hot, hot, hot! No records today, but heat indices were in the triple digits across much of the area today with temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s. Definitely need to take it easy the next couple of days, and make sure you're drinking ple... Hot and humid conditions are the main weather feature this Sunday afternoon. Expect temperatures in the mid 90s, especially on the northshore. Isolated thunderstorms continue to develop, locally heavy rainfall and lightning are assocated with these thunderstorms. The air force reserve unit in Biloxi is scheduled to investigate a tropical wave and associated area of low pressure over the Windward Islands this afternoon. Overnight, the ... Thanks to his puppy, WWL TV photographer Brian Lukas caught an awe inspiring show of the Perseid meteor shower on the northshore this morning. Tonight is one of the peak nights for viewing from midnight until dawn. For more information go to skytonight.com. (The weather home page on wwltv.com has a link to sky news at the bottom right hand side of the screen.) Here's what Brian wrote about seeing the meteor shower: I have a question regarding water spouts. I drive across the causeway a couple times a week and was wondering what should someone do if they spot a water spout while driving across the causeway while driving? I have heard on previous news cast that some have been spotted from the causeway and some from I-10 over the spillway. Amy, These are just some famous anniversaries during the month of August. August 10, 1856: The Isle of Derniere (Last Island) disaster occurred of the coast of Louisiana. A storm tide drowned 140 vacationers as a five foot wave swept over Low Island during a hurricane. August 17, 1969: Hurricane Camille was 1 of 3 Category 5 hurricanes to hit the United States. August 26, 1992: Hurricane Andrew produced a deadly tornado ... Lots of Heat and Humidity for this weekend with chances of rain fairly seasonable at 20-30%. Highs will range from the lower 90's close to the water to the mid 90's further inland. ...Still a chance for a few thunderstorms to develop during the remainder of this afternoon, but then an upper high will build in from the eastern Gulf and start to dry things out and heat things up. Rain chances for Friday and Saturday 30% at most with highs in the mid 90's. Sunday through Tuesday the rain chance will be 20% and highs at least the mid 90's to even upper 90's in some areas. The tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is ... On the nights of the 11th, 12th, & 13th the Perseid Meteor Shower will take place. This year it will not be a good one because of two reasons. According to Mike Sandras of the Pontchartrain Astronomy Society, the shower is happening just after the full moon so the sky will be brighter and the actual peak of the shower will occur during the daytime around 6pm on the 12th for North America. Mike Sandras says that you may be able to see a mete... You've heard it day in and day out. The chance for rain is 30% or 50%. What does that mean exactly? According to the National Weather Service definition, the chance that it will rain at a particular point in the forecast area during a specified time. It's point probability. Now you can get in your car and drive around and increasing your chance to see rain. So we are forecasting the chance that it will rain at a point or city in our fore... The system that brought the area rain and storms yesterday will still influence our area today, with additional showers and storms this afternoon. Conditions will change into the weekend, with heat expected to build into the mid 90's, with only isolated storms possible. ...It finally appears that rain will be ending around midnight after some heavy rainfall as of 9:30pm. 0510 PM FLASH FLOOD LAPLACE TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS STREET FLOODING AND 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL REPORTED AROUND LAPLACE 0535 PM TSTM WND GST 5 N PAINCOURTVILLE E70.00 MPH LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AROUND BELLE ROSE 0515 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 SSE BATON ROUGE LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS OF FLOODING AROUND SOUTHERN PART OF EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH AROUND COUNTRY CLUB...ANTIOC... A severe thunderstorm has formed over Tangipahoa parish, and a severe t'storm warning remains in effect until 4:30 pm. This thunderstorm is moving west at 5 mph, and will be affecting areas from Amite to Covington over the next 30-45 minutes. Penny size hail, wind gusts up to 60 mph, and frequent lightning is a possible with this storm. Take shelter and avoid windows until the storm has passed. A Flash Flood warning until 5pm for Harri... Some of you may not realize that we have had a Pollen forecast on our website for years now. It gives the readings for today and you can get a forecast for the next couple of days. Here's how to find it. When you go to wwltv.com, go to the weather homepage. Under the Pinpoint Weather Banner near top, you will see 2 tabs. "Your Forecast" willl probably be the one it is on. Go to "Plan Your Day". Scroll down to section that says "O... STRONG STORMS They will be pushing to the west through the afternoon and evening, and rain chances will remain at 50... Scattered storms can be expected today, with very heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail possible. Heating up for the weekend with highs in the mid 90's by Saturday and Sunday. ...We had a few thunderstorms around this afternoon. Some places saw some brief downpours. Rainfall amounts of .35" in River Ridge, .29" at Gramercy, and .21" in Slidell are just some of the readings today. Scattered thunderstorms expected through Friday. Maybe an increase in coverage on Thursday depending on how close the next upper low comes to the coast. This upper low is moving across Florida and will track west across the Gulf ... The latest updated forecast from the National Hurricane Center has dropped the number of storms for the remainder of the season, but still calls for an "active" season. MAY Forecast August Forecast A tropical wave/remnants of Chris moving through the central Gulf of Mexico and SE Louisiana produced thunderstorms over the area. One thunderstorm 4 miles from southshore along the Causeway produced a waterspout that an intrepid viewer caught on a digital camera. No damage or injuries reported, but one caller who saw the waterspout just to her left said it was ve...
One area of low pressure just over 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands will be the next system to watch for tropical development. Chris was an example of the National Hurricane Center sa... Our first full week of August will bring plenty of humidity along with those afternoon storms, some of which will produce heavy rain and gusty winds. Temperatures will remain fairly consistent through the week, highs near 90 and lows in the mid 70s. ...We had a lot of thunderstorm activity yesterday. It will be a quieter day across SE Louisiana Sunday. 50% chance for a few scattered showers or storms. The upper level low that helped generate the severe storms yesterday has tracked to the west. We are seeing some spotty showers develop today, but it will not be as heavy as yesterday. Two storm reports from yesterday: Golf ball size hail reported near White Sand, Mississippi, a... Thunderstorm activity has calmed down in the metro area tonight, however Little Lake, Barataria Bay, Galliano and coastal waters continue to be affected by thunderstorms tonight. Watch for possible development again tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, this week looks hot and humid with chance for afternoon thunderstorms. Thunderstorms developed over Cuba today, however Chris is not expected to regenerate. ...As of 7:15 most of the heavy activity has moved out of the metro area. The strong cluster of storms that moved through the New Orleans metro area... is now moving toward Larose, Lafitte, Houma areas, and will continue on a southerly track at about 15-20 miles per hour. Lightning and locally heavy rain associated with these storms. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A .. SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR... .. UNTIL 530 PM CDT .. AT 427 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A The National Hurricane Center issued its last advisory on Chris at 5am EDT this morning. The remnants of Chris were Northeast of Cuba. The storm is not expected to regenerate. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms being pushed along the Gulf Coast from Florida to Southeast Louisiana led to special marine warning this morning. Those showers are moving off to the Southwest, and high pressure is moving in behind it. There is still a pretty... Chris barely hanging on to depression status. Winds are 30 mph. The big question is will Chris survive the next couple of days. If it does and moves into the Gulf of Mexico, then Chris has a chance to strengthen up to a tropical storm. At 10pm, Chris is located at 21.6n 74.0w or 250 miles east of Camaguey, Cuba or 1162 miles from New Orleans. Chris is moving west at 13 mph. Chris will stay to our south as it moves across the Gulf of Mex... A severe t'storm warning for Lafourche parish is until 6:30pm. This dangerous storm is near Cut Off, and is moving west at 5 mph. The storm is capable of producing nickel size hail, and winds in excess of 60mph. Those living in Cut Off and Larose will see the storm in the next fifteen minutes. ...Severe Thunderstorms in St Tammany parish, Hancock and Pearl River counties today produced these storm reports. Strong to severe thunderstorms also developed in Lafourche, Terrebonne, Assumption, and East Baton Rouge parishes. 1. Nickel to quarter size hail 9 miles East of Diamondhead, MS Latest coordinates: 21.4N, 72.8W....Moving West at 12mph...Max winds 35mph...central pressure 1011mb. The center of Chris is poorly defined...looks like it will stay a depression over Cuba, then possibly become a tropical storm once it reemerges over the warm gulf waters. Little change to the track...still puts it near Brownsville TX late Monday night. Next update at 7pm. ...At 3pm, a severe thunderstorm was located near Lacombe. This thunderstorm will be moving west at 5 mph and will be affecting Mandeville, Madisonville, Covington and Abita Springs in the next half hour. The storm is capable of producing nickel size hail, wind gusts up to 60mph, and brief heavy rainfall. The warning is set to expire at 3:45pm. ...Just in from the NHC: 21.4N, 72.2W.....Moving W at 12 mph...Max winds 35mph...Pressure 1012mb. Chris is still struggling as far as tropical cyclones go. He is having a hard time getting thunderstorms to wrap around the center, so he will likely stay at depression strength for the next 12-24 hours. The track still takes him across the southern gulf, and puts him as a tropical storm making landfall just south of Brownsville, TX Tuesday n... Winds are now 35mph with a westward movement at 13mph. Rain and storms remain far removed from the center, preventing this system from strengthening at this point. With westward movement over the next several days, Chris, or what's left of him should move into the SE gulf by Monday, keeping his westward movement and heading towards Texas and Mexico. Changes are possible, and will monitor closely. ...Some changes in the intensity of Chris. Chris may be able to maintain tropical storm strength as thunderstorms are developing again near the center after the center was exposed all day today. Location 20.8n 69.3w with a movement of west at 12 mph. There was also a slight shift southward in the track. Chris may go over the Island of Cuba and weaken to a depression, but reintensify when getting into the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday or early Mo...
1. Increased Sea Surface Pressure in the tropical Atlantic A VERY weak tropical storm, Chris continues a WNW track... Latest coordinates: 20.7N, 68.2W...Moving WNW at 10 mph...Max sustained winds are 40mph...central pressure 1011mb. Chris is still very disorganized and is struggling to get an convection to fire up around the center. The forecast is for Chris to become a tropical depression later tonight, and still maintain it's current track WNW. Further strengthening is unlikely for t... Chris could even be brought down to a tropical depression later today or tonight. Latest coordinates: 20.7N, 67.7W....Moving WNW at 12mph.....Max sustained winds are 40mph...pressure at 1012mb. Latest satellite images show Chris with almost no convection around the center...still has some spin, but the dry air is really tearing him apart right now. Upper level shear sent all of the thunderstorms south of the center, basically b... Tropical Storm Chris may not be a tropical storm for much longer. After last nights significant weakening, Chris is expected to continue to weaken into a Depression. As far as longer term, Chris may reintensify, or at least will have the potential to strengthen down the road. If Chris holds together whether as a Depression or Storm, the path of Chris should be a general westward direction over the next 3-5days, which means Chris woul... Early this morning, Chris has encountered strong upper-level winds disrupting the storm significantly. Chris is now only expected to stay a weak tropical storm for now, and may weaken completely. The overall motion will continue west, taking it over or near Cuba in a few days (assuming it maintains its strength). ...The 10pm advisory keeps Chris as a Tropical Storm through the 5 day forecast and has it moving more west and over the Island of Cuba. Chris will then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico Monday morning. The strong Upper High over the U.S. may continue to keep Chris tracking west across the Gulf of Mexico to our south. The western Gulf of Mexico may have more of a threat from Chris. At 10pm, Chris is at 19.8n 64.9w or 125 miles northeast o... New coordinates for T.S. Chris: 19.8N, 64.5W...moving WNW 8mph...Max winds 60mph...pressure 1007mb. Little change to the current thinking of Chris...biggest uncertainty is the intensity forecast. Chris could strengthen if it stays over the warm Caribbean waters. The current track does have it north of Puerto Rico and Cuba, putting it somewhere in the southern GOM by early next week. Looking at Puerto Rico's radar, they could g... T.S. Chris is slightly weaker, with max sustained winds now at 60 mph. Here are the new coordinates for those who are tracking Chris: 19.9N, 64.3W....Moving WNW at 10 mph...Central pressure 1005mb. Chris still has the possibility of strenthening, especially if he stays over water. If he tracks over Hispaniola or Cuba, the mountainous terrain would likely weaken the storm. On its current track, Chris would enter the southeastern gulf la... A Hurricane Hunter has been investigating T.S. Chris, and is not currently finding any strengthening. Latest coordinates: 19.5N, 64.0W...Moving WNW at 10 mph...central pressure at 1007mb...located 100 miles NE of St. Thomas. As far as my latest thoughts on Chris, satellite imagery this morning has shown that Chris is getting better organized. The storm is showing more symmetry, and good outflow can be seen from some of the southern ban... Jay asks a good question: Jay, we actually have some good info about Gulf water temps on our website, wwltv.com/weather. If you click on the "Hurricane Page" scroll down and click on "Gulf... Chris has strengthened slightly this morning with sustained winds near 65mph. His movement continues to be W/NW near 10mph, and is expected that general motion through the next few days. Extended forecast on Chris remains uncertain on whether it will move south of the Florida, into Florida, or into the Caribbean. The factors that will steer this system may change over next few days. ...Not much change from the earlier advisory. Chris still has 60 mph winds and is moving W/NW at 10 mph. The future track is still uncertain, but for the next couple of days a W/NW track will continue. 10pm location is at 18.3n 61.8w or 50 miles north of the Island of Barbuda. We will continue to watch Chris because by Sunday Chris could be somewhere in the western Caribbean sea to the southern coast of Florida. Check out I-We... As of 5pm, Tropical Storm Chris is located at 18.0n and 61.1w or about 75 miles northeast of the Island of Antigua. Hurricane Hunters found that Chris was stronger so winds are now at 60 mph with some strengthening still possible. Chris is moving W/NW at 10 mph and will continue on this track. After Thursday, a Westerly track may occur. We will have to watch Chris to see if continues on this forecast track. You can see all the latest on C...
Tropical Storm Chris near the Leeward Islands will have to survive next couple of days because of high surface pressures in the area, dry air aloft in the area, and some shear also affecting the storm... As of early this morning, our 3rd named system of the season has developed near the Leeward Islands. Chris should continue a WNW track through the week, with some gradual strengthening expected. The exact track over the next few days will be important, for if he takes more of a northerly track, staying north of the islands, he will have a better chance for staying in the Atlantic, while more of a southerly track into the Caribbean w... |
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