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November 2008
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September 2008 ArchivesIf you look at statistics you find that October is usually a fairly dry month and one that typically features long stretches without rain. Well, we had a nice soaking tonight in many locations and there might be some rain again tomorrow, but after that we are looking at an extended period of fairly sunny and dry weather. ...Isolated to scattered showers and a few passing storms will be possible today and tomorrow. A cold front will cross the region tomorrow and then we can look forward to cooler and dry conditions. What is a subtropical storm? And how is it different than a regular tropical storm? ...Yes, it's unusual, but we're looking at a tropical system making landfall along the coast of Maine and Nova Scotia... ...Some of you are under the gun today as strong storms move through the area. ...Even though our winds continue to blow from the east and northeast this morning, tidal levels are lower than what we experienced yesterday. The reason is that the winds are much weaker and less water is being "pushed" into the coast and the lower Chesapeake Bay. The high tide this morning at Sewells Point was about 4.6 feet above an average lower tide. ...Tonight was a strange night, and one that goes to show that high tides can vary by locality. We have official tide gauges near Poquoson, in the middle of the Chesapeake Bay, way down the Elizabeth River, and of course the station at Sewells Point which is where we have many decades of data accumulated. ...We came through our high tides this morning with minor to moderate flooding in Norfolk and no major issues reported from other parts of the viewing area. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect until Midnight tonight. The next high tide (which will occur at 7:02 PM at Sewells Point) now looks to be about a foot higher than what we experienced this morning. Tide levels should be about 6 feet above the average of the low tides. ...MLLW stands for Mean Lower Low Water. It is defined as the average of the lowest water levels for each day. When storms come through with the potential to bring tidal flooding, MLLW becomes of vital importance. Why ? Well, quite simply it is the only way to quantify how high the water will get. So, let me point out more precicely what it is, and isn't. ...The Hurricane Center is watching the low pressure center off the East Coast for possible tropical or subtropical development. ...Enjoy today. I suggest this because I know what is coming later this week. A couple of interesting weather features are developing and will need to be monitored over the next six days. ...No tropical depression...yet. ...An area of low pressure south of Puerto Rico shows signs of development. ...Feeling swept away at times? It's because we're in something of an atmospheric sandwich... ...Yesterday I wrote about the anniversary of Isabel. Since so many of us weathered that storm I thought you'd like to see the "official" wrap-up of the hurricane. ...If you lived here, you were either riding out Hurricane Isabel, or had already evacuated inland... ...Today will be a Chamber of Commerce day for Hampton Roads. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny, and the high temperature will be near normal... a pleasant 78°. The day will be much like the pictures on the postcards that are for sale in the gift shops on Atlantic Avenue. ...Just unbelievable pictures of this town that was literally swept away. ...Finally, we have cooler Fall-like temperatures across the region. With a cold front stalled to our south and a developing low pressure center that will ride along the front, Hampton Roads and northeast North Carolina are set for some changes to our weather pattern. ...In case you see something goofy on the web site, like an old 7Day Forecast, we are doing a software upgrade on our weather equipment. ...It's official - we set a record high Sunday. ...We could see the record fall as highs soar into the 90s. ...If you're reading this blog, chances are it's because you logged on to our site to get the latest on this very dangerous hurricane. ...Ike's landfall won't happen until early tomorrow morning but already the water is coming up fast and the waves are pounding the island's coast. Things are only going to get worse. ...There are any number of things to keep an eye on (and worry about), but I'll cherry pick a few for this particular entry. ...Yesterday we had afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 70s across the region. Areas of light rain and drizzle persisted late into the day and evening. Overnight we had more showers and storms, some producing heavy rain. It looks like this pattern will continue today and tonight. ...We had scattered showers and storms this morning. Nothing severe, but we did have some very heavy downpours and storms with frequent lightning. ...We didn't hit a recored today, but with a high at the airport of 90 degrees and readings into the lower 90s for inland spots, it was hot. It was also humid. Now, I know some of you like hot weather, but more often than not I hear from viewers this time of year that want cooler temperatures. Well, if you are one of those people, you are in luck. ...The showers and thunderstorms with the front have all but fallen apart. ...While we didn't get much rain with Hanna, we have a better chance of rain with a front tonight and tomorrow. ...The official forecast for Ike has shifted south. The Brownsville TX area is now increasingly concerned with potential impacts from the hurricane. Still, the entire Texas coast will need to watch this in the coming days. No hurricanes for Hampton Roads right now, but we do have a change to our weather on the way. ...A lot can happen to the forecast track of a hurricane over 5 days. That's why the "cone of uncertainty" widens so much beyond three days. Right now, the forecast models suggest residents living near Houston may have to deal with "Ike" by the end of the work week. ...All eyes are now rightly trained on Hurricane Ike, but the passage of Tropical Storm Hanna on Saturday got me to thinking about how we cover severe weather here at 13 News and viewer reaction to it... ...Hanna is moving rapidly to the northeast, leaving behind power outages, some downed trees, and not as much rain as I had hoped. ...At high noon Hanna is located across western parts of the 13News viewing area with the actual center pretty much between Hopewell and Williamsburg. Much of the Southside and Northeastern North Carolina has seen the rain end with the exception of a few isolated showers. ...At 9:30 AM Hanna is centered just south of the state line along I-95. The heavy band of rain near the Outer Banks has cleared the coast. Much of Hampton Roads is done with the heaviest rain. So what comes next? ...A quick update on Hanna... Max winds are down to 50 mph with higher gusts. A heavy band is clearing the coast of North Carolina. The wet weather will become more scattered. Our overnight was fairly quiet in Hampton Roads. Central Virginia and North Carolina have had heavy rain and it has been widespread. The stronger winds and more areas of rain are closer to the center of Hanna. We got an early jump on the television coverage (and the competition!) to keep our viewers informed about the todays developments. ...At 11:00 PM the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 79.1 West or 140 miles South-Southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina. Earlier tonight I said on the air that there wasn't much of a difference between a strong Tropical Storm with 70 mph winds and a weak hurricane with 75 mph winds. Soon afterward I got a call from an engineer pointing out that because the force of the wind increases as the square of the wind speed that my statement wasn't really correct. Well, we are both correct. ...At 8:00 PM the center of Hanna was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 79.3 West, or about 200 miles south of Wilmington, North Carolina. ...At 5:00 PM the center of Hanna was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 78.7 West, or about 240 miles south of Wilmington, North Carolina. ...This is an updated entry as I have just received the 11AM (EDT) advisory on Hanna. With each new update the impacts from Hanna for our region become clearer. ...Whenever I see a strong tropical storm or a weak hurricane heading for somewhere else I almost always think back to Bonnie and Isabel. If you look up in hurricane guides the expected damage from storms of that intesity you will find that there shouldn't really be much. ...It is sunny and hot today. This is pretty typical weather just before and after a tropical storm or hurricane moves through. You get a lot of sinking air all around the outskirts of the storm itself. So today is a great day to get things in order before Hanna hits. ...I often get asked why there are such changes in the expected path of a tropical system from day to day, or sometimes within the same day. Well, at the risk of oversimplifying things I will try to explain. ...For the past few days we have been looking at a forecast track for Hanna making a landfall near the Georgia/South Carolina line and coming up through central North Carolina and Virginia. This morning the forecast continues a similar path, but the atmospheric features that will steer Hanna are coming into focus and there remains some uncertainty. ...With the tropics extremely active (Gustav, Hanna, Ike, and TD10/Josephine) you may be hearing more and more about how these storms compare to storms of the past. I heard another weather broadcaster from a different media outlet compare Hanna to Hurricane Floyd. ...I have been having problems trying to figure out the tone of my forecasts the past few days. ...Just a quick update to the blog this afternoon... As Gustav lashes Louisiana, and Hanna is expected to strengthen on the way to Savannah GA (as the forecast goes right now), we have a newly formed tropical depression nine in the central Atlantic. ...Lots of rain, wind, storm surge, and tornadoes are already slapping the Gulf Coast from Pensacola to central Louisiana this morning as Gustav approaches the coast. The National Hurricane center anticipates a storm surge of 10 to 14 feet with the category 3 hurricane. ... |
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