In forecasting, we call a missed forecast a "bust." I don't know where the term comes from, but it might have to do with gambling. (Are you noticing a theme in my blogs???) In blackjack, the goal is to beat the dealer, by getting as close to 21, without going over. Go over 21, and you "bust." Since some folks seem to think all we do is flip a coin in the WeatherLab to come up with the forecast, I can see how that word could come to represent a missed forecast. But I digress...

Nothing will bust a forecast more than an easterly component to the wind. This is especially true in the spring, with the waters are still cool, and an easterly wind blows clouds in off the water. But it can happen any time of the year, as we saw that this past Friday and Saturday. The computer models were calling for lots of sunshine - plenty of blue with cool temperatures. PERFECT beach weather. But to the alert forecaster, the east winds should have set off an alarm - that it was possible winds off the water would bring in clouds, and even the chance of a shower. And that is exactly what happened. Fortunately for us in the WeatherLab, we saw it coming, and so the forecast indicated that. But be forewarned amateur weather guessers, beware the east wind - it can mean a big ol' forecast bust!