We then turn to mid level wind forecasts to see which way the smoke will move. Depending on the strength of the winds as the smoke rises in the atmosphere, the plume will move or keep rising. Sometimes the winds change direction at different altitudes.

Once you determine the direction that the winds are carrying the smoke, the next challenge can be trying to determine when the smoke will mix back down to the surface.

In recent weeks we have had (at times) the smoke being carried over the southside and settling back in over the Peninsula and Middle Peninsula. Sometimes it's an easy call and sometimes you have to wait until the reports of smoke come in to know for sure.

Today the smell of smoke should be close to the fire and to the south and east-southeast of the fire. Later this afternoon, the smoke may develop for awhile over southern Chesapeake and Virginia Beach. Eventually the winds should switch to the southeast which would bring the smoke back into Suffolk this evening.

Will see how the wind blows...