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New Poll Numbers Out!!!!!
May 01, 2007
We've got the new WHAS11/Survey USA poll numbers. Here's the numbers. I'll have a story at noon and 5:30 on the air and more background here, on the blog.
Democrats;
29% Lunsford/Stumbo
23% Beshear/Mongiardo
18% Henry/True
9% Richards/Brown
7% Miller/Maze
6% Galbraith/Wireman
1% Hensley/Robbins
7% Undecided
Republicans:
46% Fletcher/Rudolph
34% Northup/Hoover
14% Harper/Wilson
5% Und.
Obviously, on the democratic side, the big surges by Lunsford and Beshear, the drop by Henry and Miller's failure to move despite TV ads, are the stories. With just three weeks to go, something dramatic will have to happen for something other than a Lunsford/Beshear run off in June.
On the republican side, Billy Harper has dropped two points since the last poll. If he dropped out of the race and you assume his anti-Fletcher support goes to Northup, the race would be a statistical dead heat. But Harper says he's not dropping out. So Northup will likely ramp up some TV attack ads (there's a mild one airing now) to try and bring Fletcher's numbers down.
Posted by mark.hebert at May 1, 2007 11:35 AM
Comments
who do you believe is leading
on dem. & rep. sides
Posted by: tommy j thomas at May 19, 2007 09:55 PM
Some of the same people who were filled with glee by the poll released by Miller are now filled with sour grapes. Come on, people! Do you think he would have actually RELEASED a poll that didn't show him doing well? No! In fact, he had a poll before the one he released that DID NOT show him doing well, and so he DID NOT MAKE IT PUBLIC!!! Can you honestly believe a poll a candidate paid for is more reliable? And those of you complaining, "well I wasn't called and I support Miller", or "people with cell phones weren't called" cannot turn around and say "automated polls are flawed because who would stay on the line to answer a machine". Face it, you don't like the results, and that's too bad so sad. But stop blaming the poll when it doesn't tell you what you want to hear. If polls are so unscientific and meaningless why do you make such a big deal when your candidate is ahead in them? Why do candidates do press releases talking about how meaningful they are ONLY WHEN THEY DO WELL IN THEM? Sour, sour grapes.
Posted by: sourgrapes at May 2, 2007 07:29 PM
Mark, why no mention or article on the COLOSSAL difference between Miller's PHONY poll numbers and the REAL poll numbers?
Why never an article about Miller's OWN ACTIONS while he has been Treasurer?
For instance,
It is a matter of fact that Treasurer Jonathan Miller conceived, wined & dined Nickolas to run the website Miller conceived in the Spring 2005.
Why, oh why, YOU - Mark Hebert the journalist - NOT think it "abnormal" that Miller never got angry at Nickolas when it became public that Nickolas used the Miller website to defraud taxpayers simultaneously slandering people and making up deceptive lies?
WHY did Miller NEVER, EVER publicly say, "Nickolas should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law for defrauding tax payers?"
WHY did Miller NEVER, EVER say, "I am committed to holding corporations responsible and I am appalled that my friend would abuse the very website I conceived for his personal gain in defrauding the taxpayer?"
WHY did Miller hire Nickolas' live-in girlfriend AFTER the IRS started their investigation?
Jonathan Miller's OWN actions, including his "silence" in answering questions, illustrate a corrupt and unethical politician that could care less whether or not HIS very close friend abused the very tax system that Miller was elected, as Treasurer, to uphold.
You never wrote an article about Treasurer Miller sending KAPT bankrupt twice.
You never wrote an article about Treasurer Miller's dibacle of the Teacher's Pension.
You never wrote an article about Treasurer Miller's failed attempt of not being able to execute cradle to college for the last 3 years.
You never wrote an article about Treasurer Miller's inability to have any success in any of his initiatives he promoted as Treasurer.
NOT A SINGLE initiative of Miller's while as Treasurer has been a success.
Cradle to College is ALL TALK NO ACTION ....
I am amazed at your cavalier and non-journalistic attitude toward such a seemingly corrupt politician by MILLER'S OWN ACTIONS.
I think we already have PLENTY of corrupt politicians
We certainly do NOT need to add any more to that list when it is so obvious that Treasurer Miller has abused his office of Treasurer and failed to uphold the duties of his office.
Hebert ..... you owe it to your readers to put your personal feelings aside and do your job as a journalist ... It is clear you have withheld legitimate information from your readers .....
While Treasurer Miller FAILED the taxpayers ....
Mark Hebert has FAILED journalism ....
Posted by: terri at May 2, 2007 09:22 AM
If only people knew anything about social science. First off, even polls conducted as they should be (ie., right sample, by a human, etc), are nearly worthless. This poll is conducted by an automated machine. Would you stay on the line and take a poll a machine asked you to take? In a properly conducted political poll, the best you end up with is knowing this: what percentage of people, when asked a particular question, say a certain name. You DO NOT end up with a true prediction of what that persons behavior would be, i.e., what button they would push if they were in front of a voting machine. Thus, the result you end up with in an automated poll (i.e., this "poll", and I cringe) are this: what percentage of people will stay on the phone when a computer calls them and asks them a question and press a button that's associated with a certain name. Hardly what I'd call a descent predictor. YOU'VE LEFT OUT EVERYONE WHO ONLY HAS A CELL PHONE AND ANYONE WHO WOULD HANG UP WHEN THEY HEAR ITS A MACHINE. And even if these SERIOUS problems weren't in the mix, still all you get is a verbal answer to a question. Verbal answers are not behavior. Just ask any REAL social scientist about a famous experiment done some years ago where hotel owners were asked if people of Oriental descent would be allowed to stay in their hotel. Almost all said no. Upon arrival, no Orientals were rejected. Your "POLL" is a JOKE!!! Gut check: does anybody out there believe so few people are undecided?
Posted by: Tim Robinson at May 1, 2007 10:41 PM
The internals on these SurveyUSA polls are terrible. Just see www.bluegrassredstate.blogspot.com for a very accurate description of how slanted they are. Not only does this bode well for Northup (its not very favorable to Jefferson County) but it also would suggest that Henry may be in 2nd at this point.
Posted by: Chuck at May 1, 2007 07:51 PM
These numbers make a mockery of the supposed poll the Miller campaign peddled to the media, and which was reported on this blog earlier.
Posted by: AnonCard at May 1, 2007 07:03 PM
Mark,
Didn't the democratic candidate, that YOU, Al Cross & the Herald Leader keep protecting from the truth of HIS corruption coming out report last week their internal poll showed him at 2nd?
I guess it's one more time Jonathan Miller either lied or maybe it just shows how clueless he is?
Isn't Jonathan Miller the one that said, "silence equals complicity?"
Why is Miller silent when he knows people are asking if Treasurer Miller devised the state & federal tax scam his very good friend, and your very good friend, Mark Nickolas committed for 1.5 years.
Obviously YOU think it's ok that Nickolas defrauded taxpayers ... but ... are YOU worried that the voters would not see it as a good thing?
Have YOU never informed your viewers or readers about Treasurer Miller's continued close ties with a man, Nickolas, that committed corporate tax fraud while Miller was Treasurer.
Were you worried that the voters would think its ODD that the Treasurer would NOT condemn his own close friend? Were YOU worried that voters would wonder WHY Treasurer Miller continued close ties with Mark Nickolas and even hired Nickolas' girl friend as his fund raiser.
Oh well, no matter HOW HARD YOU tried to keep the truth about Miller from the voters ... looks like YOUR friend Nickolas has LOST again and this time with Jonathan Miller. You see, the truth IS out ... and ... YOU have lost credibility along with Nickolas, Al Cross & the Herald Leader.
Posted by: haha at May 1, 2007 04:13 PM
Good report as always. I agree with your conclusions...Lunsford/Beshear in June...Looks like Fletcher (unless Harper leaves) will be the Repub nominnee
Posted by: Ted Shlechter at May 1, 2007 01:34 PM

