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Final Thoughts on Survey USA Poll
May 03, 2007
This was the first time WHAS and Survey USA included running mates in its polling on the governor's race.
I was the one who insisted on that since that's the way the tickets will appear on the ballot. Whether any voter cares who the Lt. Governor is remains a mystery, but I thought it was a fairer way to ask the question. Also, I insisted on getting rid of that silly "other" category which had been included in the previous polls. Obviously, republicans and democrats could still be "undecided" but there are no "other" candidates available so including that category in the polling was misleading.
Just looking at the results, I'd guess that Anne Northup isn't really 12 points behind Ernie Fletcher because of the traditionally higher voter turnout percentage in Jefferson County. Of the republicans who responded to Survey USA, just 22% lived in the "Louisville area" which includes Jefferson County and 13 counties to its south. The total vote from that area in the GOP primary will be greater than that and Northup is ahead of Fletcher 57%-24% in those counties.
UPDATE: Fletcher's campaign manager, Marty Ryall has a point that I buy. Here it is:
RYALL: I would point out that the poll has Governor Fletcher with a substantial lead among the age group 65+ (57% to 28%). They only make up 14% of the sample. In reality, based on vote history, in the 2003 GOP primary that age group made up over 35% of the electorate. There is not a Republican primary anywhere in the nation that seniors make up that low of a percentage of the electorate. For what it's worth.
HEBERT: On the democratic side, it's no secret why Lunsford and Beshear are out front. They're easily winning the 35+ age group and those are the folks who are most likely to vote.
Posted by mark.hebert at May 3, 2007 08:59 AM
Comments
Mark,
I would think that with proper sampling, that the turnout in Metropolitan Louisville area would already reflected in the poll.
RR
Posted by: Rick Rash at May 3, 2007 09:35 AM

