GARINHARTYANG
RESEARCH GROUP
TO: BESHEAR/MONGIARDO CAMPAIGN
FROM: GARIN HART YANG RESEARCH GROUP
DATE: MAY 16, 2007
RE: JUST-COMPLETED SURVEY RESULTS SHOW BESHEAR/MONGIARDO
CLOSING IN ON 40% FIGURE
Our May 14 to 15 survey of 523 likely Democratic primary voters shows the
ticket of Steve Beshear and Dan Mongiardo solidifying their front-runner status
and increasing their lead over Bruce Lunsford and Greg Stumbo with just six
days remaining before the primary, and with the prospect of reaching the 40%
threshold now a very real possibility.
Our poll results show that the Beshear/Mongiardo ticket has slightly
increased its advantage from the SurveyUSA poll released earlier in the week.
Voters’ Choices For Governor/Lt Governor
(Garin Hart Yang)
May 14-15, 2007
%
Steve Beshear/Dan Mongiardo 35
Bruce Lunsford/Greg Stumbo 23
Steve Henry/Renee True 13
Jody Richards/John Y. Brown, III 12
Other candidates 2
Undecided voters 15
In-depth analysis shows that Beshear/Mongiardo has a very good chance
to pick up the extra votes needed to reach the important 40% mark. For
example, among undecided voters, Steve Beshear enjoys a 3.4 positive-tonegative
ratio, compared to the 1.67 positive-to-negative ratio for Bruce
Lunsford.
Voter turnout usually is a key factor in primary elections, and our findings
show that the Beshear/Mongiargo ticket has a bigger advantage among the
“core” Democrats most likely to vote next Tuesday. Among these voters,
Beshear/Mongiardo is at 38%, followed by Lunsford/Stumbo at 22%, and
Henry/True and Richards/Brown tied at 12% apiece.
This memorandum is based on a survey among a representative statewide
sample of 523 likely Democratic primary voters. The survey, which was
conducted from May 14 to 15, 2007, has a margin of error of ±4.4 percentage
points.