Hold all tickets

The hardest race in the world to handicap has just become more difficult.

The usual confusion over horses converging on Churchill Downs from different regions of the country has been complicated by the addition of artificial racing surfaces. Some horses, prepping for the Derby in California, may have never seen a dirt track.

Other horses racing in New York, Florida, Louisiana and Arkansas have run exclusively on traditional dirt surfaces. The Polytrack dilemma will be a theme as we try to separate the contenders from the pretenders for Derby 134.

1. Big Brown: It's a public relations dream come true. The hottest name in the Kentucky Derby is named after Louisville's biggest employer. The original owner was a trucking executive, who named the horse after UPS. Big Brown has a built in fan base waiting in Kentuckiana. He alsohad an eye popping 106 Beyer speed figure while running away with the Florida Derby. Other Derby contenders can't match those numbers....but and it's a big but, he may be a little fragile. Big Brown has only raced three times because he's been plagued by quarter cracks in his feet. His hooves have literally been glued together. If they get the horse to the Derby in one piece, the bettors will be asking "What can Brown do for me?"

2. Colonel John: Could replace Sanders as the number one Colonel in Kentucky. John came roaring down the stretch to win the Santa Anita Derby and this son of Tiznow has the breeding to make a mile and a quarter. In fact, he galloped out briskly after the Santa Anita just to prove that he could keep going. This could be the "Now" horse, who appears to be maturing at the right time. OK, but here comes "the but." He's only run on artificial surfaces at three tracks in California. What if he comes to Churchill Downs and thinks, "what's this stuff on the track." Also, John is a closer, and closers have to get a perfect trip to win the Derby. You get blocked on the far turn, get free and put in your best run and finish fifth. Colonel John will need some racing luck and some time to get accustomed to real dirt.

3. Pyro: Talk about closers, this is a horse that comes from the clouds to win. Pyro is a son of Pulpit and has already won a million dollars but he spent his two year old campaign chasing War Pass. That was last year. This year, Steve Asmussen took Pyro to winter at the Fairgrounds and he loved the track. He won the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby with stunning come from behind moves. Now he goes to the Bluegrass Stakes and Keeneland's track may actually be more favorable to his style. But there will be plent of competition in Lexington. Pyro will have to win, to join Colonel John and Big Brown among the Derby favorites.

4. Cool Coal Man: The Fountain of Youth winner skipped the Florida Derby and is waiting for a showdown with Pyro and others in Lexington. Remember that the Bluegrass was the final prep for Street Sense last year. Even though he didn't win, it set him up nicely for Churchill. Cool Coal Man was getting second billing in the Zito barn to War Pass, but suddenly he perked up in Florida and won a Grade Two. But will that translate into using the Bluegrass as a springboard to the Derby? Or is Cool Coal Man, a one stakes wonder, who will disappear at Keeneland.

5. Tale of Ekati: Last week you couldn't find this horse on anybody's Derby list and then he jumps up and wins the Wood Memorial, one of the races known for producing Derby runners and winners. Tale of Ekati came down the rail to pass War Pass and get a ticket to Louisville. A little like Cool Coal Man, this horse had an uninspiring Breeders Cup, ran a dull sixth in the Louisiana Derby and was pretty much out of the Derby picture. Then, suddenly, he shows up in the winner's circle at a Grade One. Can he repeat? Not likely, but possible.

6. Z Humor: From this point you could almost put on a blindfold and play "pin the tail on the Derby horse." Nobody really stands out but let's start with Z Humor. He's quietly collected almost 600 thousand dollars in graded stakes earnings, thanks to a dead heat win in the Delta Jackpot. In his last race he was third at every call of the Illinois Derby. He's certainly not peaked too soon and this son of Distorted Humor might be a live long shot at a price. I think you would leave him out of the exotic bets at great peril, since he picks up thirds and fourths with ease. Nice dosage index of 2.73 means Z Humor is dangerous.

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7. War Pass: The two year old champion is a great horse. He's just not a Derby horse. You can even throw out the Tampa Bay Derby debacle, where he finished last. War Pass took a gash on the chin during the flight to New York and then ran a great race but lost at the wire to Tale of Ekati. War Pass is the leading money winner among three year olds, but he's a front runner and I think a mile and an eighth is about the limit. He's a Cherokee Run, a sprint pedigree, and his Dosage is over the limit at 4.09. He's already a champion, made his place as a future stallion, and might win another Breeders Cup race this fall, but if he does, it will be at about a mile.

8. Recapturetheglory: And speaking of Cherokee Run, here's another fast offspring that ran off with the Illinois Derby. Louis Roussell is trying to bring back the magic of Risen Star and they are definitely going to the Derby. This horse pulled a War Pass and lead the Hawthorne race from start to finish. But his Dosage Index is 5.00 and way over the border. Could we see an early Derby speed duel between the Cherokee Runs and maybe Big Brown. Sounds like they're setting the stage for the closers. But they can't take the Illinois Derby away from him.

9. Eight Belles: As we get deep into this Derby field, the horses are so inconsistent, that I can't help but toss in a filly or two. And this is no ordinary filly. Eight Belles has now won four in a row and is 16th in graded stakes money and has a 100 Beyer to her credit. Last week, trainer Larry Jones, who is a very smart businessman, paid $6,000 in late nomination fees for Eight Belles and his other filly Proud Spell. I wouldn't be surprised to see one or both in the Derby field. By the way, she's by Unbridled's Song, so there should be no problem with distance.

10. Adriano: He's got the money, he's got the class, but the owners think he's a Polytrack horse. Adriano won the Lane's End at Turfway and looked good doing it. He's a beautiful chestnut by A.P. Indy, and he won at Turfway after a terrible run in the Fountain of Youth.

Now here's problem. The FOY was his only race on dirt. The Derby, you might remember, is run on dirt at Churchill Downs in May. Adriano might like the grass better at Churchill in May. But, the smell of roses can sometimes be overpowering to owners.

11. Big Truck: Not to be confused with Big Brown or the Big Brown Trucks of UPS. Big Truck won the Tampa Bay Derby and found himself as the sidebar story to War Pass who finished last. There's a chance he may show up in the Bluegrass Stakes even though he probably has enough graded stakes cash to make the field. So, Barclay Tagg must decide if the horse needs a race, or if he can train him up to the Derby. To Polytrack or not to Polytrack? That is the question.

12. Court Vision: One of those under the radar entries that hasn't won a race this year but will make the field. Court Vision won the Iroquois last fall at Churchill Downs and the Remsen at Aqueduct. This year has been much less spectacular with a third place in both the Fountain of Youth and the Wood Memorial. Remember, Secretariat was third in the Wood. I don't believe this is the second coming of Big Red.

13. Salute the Sarge: Big news last year on the west coast until he hit a wall in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Most people thought he was "off the Derby Trail." But, he returned to win the San Miguel at Santa Anita. The Sarge has enough graded money to make the field and may stop by Keeneland for the Lexington to see if he's ready for Churchill. His dosage index of 4.14 will not make you stop and salute. It may just make him stop.

14. Bob Black Jack. Now this is a fast horse. He won the Sunshine Million's Dash in 1:06:2. So can he carry that speed over some distance? The answer is "yes" at least for a while.

Bob was third in the San Felipe and second in the Santa Anita Derby. He was just nipped at the wire by Colonel John. Still his dosage is over the limit at 4:33 and he's never been off the artificial surface. Bob Black Jack is by Stormy Jack, a little known Bertrando sire. Bertrando's are famous for their love affair with Polytrack. If you see a Bertrando offspring on Poly, run to the betting window. Bob has two things going against him in Louisville, distance and surface. Aside from that he's a blur for six furlongs.

15. Anak Nakal: Won the season ender at Churchill for two year olds and headed into 2008 as one of the Derby favorites. Then they started to run the preps. He finished 8th in the Fountain of Youth, 7th in the Rebel Stakes, and Wowee, he was 5th in the Wood. Still he has enough money to his credit if they want to start.

16. Visionaire: We believe this son of Grand Slam won the Gotham Stakes in New York but we have no idea how he won. The Gotham was run in a dense fog, and there's little evidence how the race developed or what happened until Visionaire burst out of the cloud and beat Texas Wildcatter by a nose. Visionaire is on the earnings bubble and hopes to pad his bank account at Keeneland in the Bluegrass. If he wins some money, he's probably worthy.

17. Smooth Air: He was the only horse within visual contact of Big Brown when BB crossed the finish line. He was beaten by 5 lengths and still posted a 98 Beyer Speed Figure. Just shows you how fast BB was going. This horse has hit the board in every start and looks like a real value at the window. Don't ignore this guy.

18. Denis of Cork: I include him this week, because he was my original Derby pick, way back at the first of the year. Then he skipped the Rebel Stakes in Arkansas, opted for the Illinois Derby and ran a pretty dull race at Hawthorne. Denis is not a big horse and has some trouble maintaining his weight. But trainer David Carroll says he still has confidence and will go to the Derby if he qualifies. Denis of Cork is 21 st on the graded stakes earnings list with $165,000. He needs some defections to make the field.

19. Tomcito: What's a Kentucky Derby without a horse from Peru. Dante Zanelli brought this horse from South America with the Derby as a target and I think he'se going to make it. But they could still use some money. Tomcito will go in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes on April 19th , a race also known as the last call for qualifiers. Tomcito won two Grade Ones in South America and was third in the Florida Derby. He's a mystery horse, but so was Cannonero II.

20. And finally, King's Silver Son: I know, you didn't see this one coming. He doesn't have the graded stakes money, no problem. I think this Asmussen trainee will win the Arkansas Derby and punch his ticket for Kentucky. And when he gets here, the son of Mizzen Mast with a Dosage Index of 1.00 will be a serious contender. He's a closer, who is just maturing. Watch out! This is a long shot waiting to happen.

So, there you have it: My best estimate of who will make the twenty horse field on the first Saturday in May. The field will change based on the prep races over the next two weeks, but I think you'll find the Derby winner in the list above. The trick is to determine which one.

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