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The Polytrack Dilemma

11:40 AM Wed, Apr 18, 2007 |

As if the Kentucky Derby wasn't hard enough to handicap, now they throw in Polytrack.
Because nobody was winning on the lead at Keeneland this spring, the Bluegrass Stakes turned out to be the first Derby Prep run in slow motion.
Nobody wanted the lead. And now, nobody can figure out what this race means to the Derby picture.
The horse that won, Domincan, has won three races.
He has half a million dollars in graded stakes at Turfway and Keeneland. He hasn't won a dime on dirt.
What does this mean for the first Saturday in May?

It probably means that Carl Nafzger is quietly confident about Street Sense, because the Bluegrass was just a nice work out. In 1990, Carl's Derby winner, Unbridled ran third in the Bluegrass but by May 5th Carl was improvising a stretch call for owner Frances Genter as her horse won the Derby. Carl gets them ready for the big races. Unbridled would later win the Breeders' Cup Classic.
But back to Polytrack. Prepping and training on Polytrack, is like prepping for the Derby by running on grass. It's a completely different experience. And we are beginning to develop horses that are Polytrack horses. What's next? I'm sure somewhere, there's a horse that would prefer to run on cut pile carpet made in Dalton Georgia.
And it gets worse. The Polytrack at Keeneland doesn't play and handicap like the Polytrack at Turfway. Turfway's winter meet showed it's surface was pretty fair and gave some hope to speed horses. Keeneland has produced two winners off the lead this spring. That produced a half mile in the Bluegrass that was :52 and change.
So, was it better to prep a horse on dirt, by blowing away the field at the Arkansas Derby. The futures bettors think so. Curlin jumped to the top of the early bird wager list and of course, many think he's the second coming of Smarty Jones. If he wins at Churchill you might see a lot more horses looking for dirt races to prep for the Derby.
Polytrack might be easier on the horses, and it holds up nicely on a rainy day, but it sure confuses things for the first Saturday in May.




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