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« Lessons In Life | Main | An Economy Out of Balance »

To be severe or not to be severe? That is the question

April 21, 2006

The severity of a storm can be debated until you are directly affected, then there is no doubt in your mind. I have heard your frustrations when you're getting walloped by rain, wind, lightning and hail and there's no severe weather warnings for your area. I can assure you that there is no plot against you but that there are limitations to the science of weather and certain criteria that must be met before a storm is considered severe. Let me explain.

First, certain weather events can happen so quickly and in such a small area, that it might not be seen with all this new technology. Even on a larger scale, it takes our computers time to ingest all this data and make computations to pinpoint areas where severe weather might be happening. The length of time these calculations can take can be 5 to 10 minutes. If a storm is moving at 30 mph the severe weather may be 2 to 5 miles down the road by the time the computer flashes up it's answer on the radar screen. You have had the severe weather and 5 minutes later we're telling you that severe weather is happening, I can understand why you might get agitated. However, at this time it is the best we can do. Even with the explosion in technology that we've experienced these past 20 years, expectations of forecast accuracy is ahead of reality.

Second, sometimes that nasty weather you're experiencing isn't really severe. I got into an argument with a gentleman years ago because he swore he was having a tornado and I wasn't warning him about it. Upon further discussion I found out that his criteria for a tornado was that it was windy and darker than usual. Well, it wasn't that windy and it was 10 o'clock at night so that explained the darkness and besides there were no showers or storms in the area. The end result was that this gentleman wasn't happy with my answer because the weather happening to him was severe...to him. Severe weather can be relative and very personal.

What makes a storm severe? Three things, either taken by themselves or in combination with others. Number 1, if a storm produces a tornado, it is severe. By this time we're talking tornado warning and not severe thunderstorm warning but that same storm may be producing other severe weather elements. Number 2, winds of 58 mph or greater. How did we ever come up with that figure? Somewhere along the line it was decided that winds of 50 knots were considered damaging. Fifty knot winds compute to 58 mph...honest. And number 3, three quarter inch diameter hail or greater. At this time the amount of lightning a storm is producing is not considered a severe criteria.

So could you have a storm with 57 mph wind and marble size hail and not be under a warning. Yes. Should you not protect yourself from a storm with 57 mph winds and marble size hail because there's no thunderstorm warning for your area. Don't be silly. With or without a warning use your head. If the weather looks threatening, take shelter.

Posted by ken.schulz at April 21, 2006 08:41 PM

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