A lot of meteorological technology has come because you, the public, have demanded improvements in forecast quantity and quality. Doppler radar is a prime example of this. The public was tired of receiving tornado warnings after the storms had moved through. Now, because of Doppler radar, warnings on tornadoes are issued before these storms even develop.

People also want to know about other severe weather events such as droughts, floods, severe cold, snow and ice as early as possible. Forecasting accuracy has increased but primarily for the first several days out from the present. This has been due to the use of super computers to generate more weather models from which to choose. This is a good start to helping in forecasting farther out in terms of weeks and months but we’re not quite there yet.

Presently, long range forecasts are very general and a bit vague. They deal with percent chances for above or below normal temperatures and precipitation with very large sections of the country devoted to “Near Normal”. They do not deal in specifics or pinpoint significant weather events such as land falling hurricanes, snow or ice storms, heat waves or cold snaps. However, our knowledge of the atmosphere and how it is globally connected and also how air and sea interacts is increasing and this is leading to more accurate and detailed forecasts well into the future. El Niño, the warming of the water of the eastern Pacific, is one of these global events that was not well understood decades ago but is now one of the prime indicators of what our weather will be months and even seasons into the future.

There is a weak El Niño developing this year and this gives us a slightly better idea of what we might experience this coming winter. During winters where a weak to moderate El Niño is expected, the forecast is for slightly below normal temperatures and slightly below normal precipitation. While the confidence in that forecast is higher due to the El Niño, there are no details on cold waves or how much snow or ice we might expect.

Personally, I have been impressed with the vigor of our weather systems the past few weeks. If that kept up, this could be a wild winter but I believe things will settle down as we enter the early part of winter. However, the last half of winter might get interesting again so stay tuned to the First Alert StormTeam forecast as we track all the twists and turns that Mother Nature has to throw at us.