Who is the favorite in the Kentucky GOP primary for Jim Bunning's U.S. Senate seat?

Candidate A raised $1,010,668 in the third quarter, and Candidate B raised $642,857.

While Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson has been considered the Republican establishment pick for the nomination (Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and 22 other GOP Senators supported Grayson at a D.C. fundraiser last month), he is Candidate B in this scenario. Candidate A is Bowling Green eye doctor Rand Paul.

Given Paul's $1 million take, primarily from two internet "moneybombs," modeled after the presidential campaigns of Paul's father, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), it's pretty easy math. Paul raised 36% more than Grayson in the third quarter, or about $367,000. That, by any definition, is substantial.

Grayson's campaign overall, however, has raised slightly more, $1,245,992 total compared to $1,121,693 for the Paul campaign to date.

In an e-mail to supporters, Grayson said "I can't thank you enough for helping our campaign meet our financial goals."

"Our positive message focusing on the needs of our Commonwealth's economy and the need for returning fiscal responsibility to Washington is resonating with Kentucky voters. Nearly 2,200 Kentuckians have invested in our effort so far."

For comparison purposes, Democrat Dan Mongiardo's campaign raised less than both of the Republican contenders in the third quarter, about $550,000.

But, the message to power brokers today is that the GOP race is very much a race. Months ago, Grayson's campaign had pointed out that fundraising was limited by Senator Jim Bunning not having withdrawn from the race, But, the campaign has had two full months since Bunning announced he would not seek re-election.

The Grayson campaign appears to have been blindsided by the upstart Paul. Poll numbers suggest Paul is a solid contender (though Grayson leads Paul in all polls), but Grayson's name recognition, despite having held statewide office, is not appreciably greater than Paul's.

Here is Grayson's e-mail blast today:

Friends,
We are filing our third quarter financial report with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) today, and I can't thank you enough for helping our campaign meet our financial goals.

To date we've raised $1,245,992 and have $1,117,655 cash on hand. We raised $642,857 in the third quarter.

Our positive message focusing on the needs of our Commonwealth's economy and the need for returning fiscal responsibility to Washington is resonating with Kentucky voters. Nearly 2,200 Kentuckians have invested in our effort so far.

Just the Facts

- 98% of contributions from individuals

- 92% of contributions from Kentucky

- 68% of contributions this quarter for $200 or less, with 95% of those from Kentuckians

- Nearly 2,200 Kentucky contributors

- Contributions from 116 of 120 Kentucky counties

My heartfelt appreciation goes out to you and the thousands of others who have invested their time, talents and financial contributions in our campaign.

We continue to need your assistance and input as we seek to keep this important U.S. Senate seat in conservative hands. Our work is only just beginning. If you haven't already, please take time to volunteer or make a financial contribution today.

With your help we will win. Again, Nancy and I are grateful for your encouragement and support.

Sincerely,

Trey

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