The WHAS11 Survey USA poll of the Kentucky U.S. Senate race continues to reverberate through both parties and all the campaigns.
One of the biggest storylines to emerge from the poll is that Bowling Green eye doctor Rand Paul trails the presumptive GOP nominee Secretary of State Trey Grayson by only 11 points among likely voters in the Republican primary. The immediate reaction among the Kentucky Republican establishment was shock.
Paul referred to WHAS11's report on the poll when he told Walt Thiessen on the Libertarian website nolanchart.com:
"The media report said we should be 'ecstatic', and we are. We've not even done a mailing of the primary list yet. I've been campaigning for only about 3 months, only about 3 weeks as an official candidate, and my opponent has been campaigning for eight years!"
He went on to say, "We are within striking distance of the establishment Republican and in a dead heat with the leading Democrat. At this stage of the race, we couldn't ask for better results. Our numbers will only move higher as we begin to get our name and message out."
But long time Republican strategist Ted Jackson of Louisville calls Paul's 26% support in the poll a "phantom number."
"No one can believe that Rand Paul has that kind of name I.D." Jackson said, "There is no one who can believe that number has any accuracy."
"It cannot be about him."
Jackson echoed the thoughts of many observors when he noted that Rand Paul has his father to thank for any recognition. Texas Congressman Ron Paul enjoyed the support of fervent libertarians in his run for the Republican presidential nomination.
"People who support Trey are people who vote in Republican primary," Jackson continued.
But, the Survey USA poll shows that the heart of Grayson's support is among moderates, who support him 50% - 19% over Paul. Among conservatives, Grayson had a fsingle digit margin, 35% - 28%.
"That's really not a concern," Jackson said, "There is no question about Trey's conservative credentials. People will be reminded about who has worked with the party," and who has spent the time cultivating party support.
"Rand Paul is not a Republican. It will become more apparant."
"Has he been a precinct captain? LD chairman? Those things matter." Jackson predicts a "lot of pushback" for the "Johnny come lately" Paul.
"The sky is not falling for me"
But Jackson acknowledges that the WHAS11/Survey USA poll is "perfect timing" for Paul's moneybomb today (August 20). He argues it is, however, a short term bounce.
"Trey is the incumbent here, in essence"
Jackson is an informal unpaid advisor to Grayson's campaign.
While the primary numbers are not exciting for Grayson, Republicans, overall, have to be pleased at the prospects for the fall election, especially considering that the race was leaning Democrat while Jim Bunning was the GOP candidate.
"It bodes very well," Jackson said adding that the poll is "disastrous news for Democrats," and "not what they expected."
Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo has an eight point lead in the poll over Attorney General Jack Conway, with Conway's support mostly from urban areas and Mongiardo's from rural areas.
If Conway was considered the frontrunner before the poll, it would be difficult for any independent observor to give either Democrat an edge.
Ted Jackson will continue to be caught off guard in his attempts to paint Paul's candidacy as fringe. Paul leads Mongiardo head-to-head, so electability is NOT a concern. The McConnell followers willingly going along with doubling the national debt makes rank-and-file republicans like myself wanting a candidate that will stand up to party leadership, rather than someone who has pledged his support, paid his dues, and enlisted as a member of the powers-that-be that have this country near bankruptcy.
correction, Paul is head-to-head with Mongiardo
I hope Ted Jackson enjoys eating crow. The GOPbot
establishment has consistently underestimated
Dr. Paul's candidacy and from all appearances they will continue to do so.
As I write this Dr. Paul's moneybomb total is at
$535k and climbing fast, and there are 8 hours left
in today's drive. Trey Grayson has raised how much thusfar? $600k?
The GOP establishment that has failed the conservative movement is quaking in their boots at the thought of Paul toppling their pretty-boy candidate Grayson.
I think the highlight of Mr. Jackson's pathetic hackery has to be his comment that "Rand Paul is not a Republican".
I'll let the primary voters decide who is the Real Republican in the race-- but I can tell you that Rand Paul is the one conservative in this primary, even if unscrupulous flacks such as Mr. Jackson try to disguise this fact.
And I hope that Dr. Paul tacks this post up on his bulletin board. When he is Senator Paul of Kentucky, Mr. Jackson may find that his business and his advice are less welcome around Republican circles than it used to be.
lol
Dr. Paul is doing quite well....until David Adams screws it up like he did Buford's campaign for Congress!
Well said Ben and David. Rand Paul is a true citizen candidate. I am one Republican who is fed up with career politicians who sound like conservatives and act totally different once in office.
"There is no question about Trey's conservative credentials. [...] Rand Paul is not a Republican. It will become more apparant."
-Ted Jackson, from the article
Is this man serious? Grayson used to be a DEMOCRAT, and this guy has the nerve to say that Rand isn't a Republican? They must be getting desparate.
The entire substance of Ted Jackson's Paul-bashing has to do with his lack of connections with the party and the political world in general. While that might make Paul a nobody to people like Jackson who make their living off of the country's bloated political system, one has to wonder why people will consider that a negative after an 8-year Republican administration that spent like drunken sailors for its local interests and then a Democratic takeover resulting in even more of the same. People like Ted Jackson and Trey Grayson kid themselves if they think the people of Kentucky still believe that they know what is best. Paul has experience with the market and the world of healthcare - as a real doctor with a real job in Kentucky. He founded the Kentucky Taxpayers Union. He is well read and understands economics.
And what is this about Rand Paul not being a Republican? He's never been anything but a Republican, unlike Mr. Grayson who is clearly being played off as a moderate.
Jackson said, "There is no question about Trey's conservative credentials."
Except for the fact that Mr. Grayson campaigned for Bill Clinton and is a "former" democrat.
Dr. Paul's money bomb is now well over $600 K. This looks like an attempt to cool of Paul's momentum, but I'm not sure if it's going to work. The poll is valid. Dr. Paul and his conservative values are getting out among voters.
All this says to be is political hatchery. Paul has a real message, a real conservative and is a nice change to 'People will be reminded about who has worked with the party.' Very true.
We need leadership. Not lap dogs. We need real conservatives. Not moderates.
Good luck Rand. I think the closer it gets the more apparent your lead will become.
"That's really not a concern," Jackson said, "There is no question about Trey's conservative credentials."
Ahem ... Paul is in a virtual tie with GOP primary Conservatives according to the poll. Trey's been running in KY politics for 8 years and Rand for 8 weeks. There's a "question" for sure.
People will be reminded about who has worked with the party," and who has spent the time cultivating party support."Rand
"Paul is not a Republican. It will become more apparant.""
While Grayson was a Clinton Delegate, Paul was busy creating the anti-tax group Kentucky Taxpayers United. Trey is not a Conservative Republican, and to a lot of the GOP primary voters it's already become apparent.
waa waaaa Paul hasn't been a precinct captain. Well la de daaa! Are you kidding me? How about Paul has been fighting for low spending and low taxes -- something real Republicans should stand for -- not wasting his time on being a dumb captain.
Since when do the folks who vote in a party's primary care if a candidate has been a precinct captain or an LD chairman? This Jackson guy and the other players of crony politics are in for a rude awakening if they think that voters care about their little "you scratch my back I scratch yours" game, and not actual issues. And make no mistake about it, when conservative Republicans who are concerned about where the economic policies of Bush and Obama are leading us take a look at the issues, they'll see that Rand Paul is on their side and Trey Grayson is with Bush and Obama.
"There is no one who can believe that number has any accuracy."
Does this mean Grayson's camp wants to challenge the accuracy of the poll? The first poll of it's kind and when they don't like the results, they complain about it's validity. Good grief.
No amount of his political ties to the GOP is going to keep Grayson's image clear of the mud he's slinging...and the race has just begun.
You're right Mr.Jackson, Rand Paul's phenomenal polling numbers and money bombs are NOT about him. It's about the MESSAGE of individual liberty, limited government, free markets and OBEDIENCE TO THE CONSTITUTION.
Establishment Republicans have had long enough and all they've done is pay lip service while consistently violating most, if not all, core Republican principles. We, the actual conservative Republicans,know you will try to copy cat Dr.Paul and begin trying to talk the talk. But by their fruits ye shall know them and the establishment's fruit is rotten to the core with corruption, hypocrisy and lies.
We might not agree with Dr.Paul on every thing but we know for sure that he's honestly going to do the things he says and that he's not going to water down his platform and/or vote once he gets into office. He says what he means and sticks to it.
I'd rather have a candidate where I know exactly what I'm getting VS some back stabbing, lying, corrupt, cow towing party hack that will say, do or vote whatever way the wind blows so as to keep their grubby paws shoveling tax payer dollars into their mouths for life.
Grayson? You mean the former democrat who is the son of a banker that was a recipient of TARP funds.
HAHAHA!!! My side is hurting I'm laughing so hard.
Thank you so much, Mr. Arnold. I now have the motivation to make you eat crow. When will you people learn that comments like this only cause blowback, make us stronger, and more focused?
It will be fun squishing you guys like bugs.
Sincerely,
One of 'We The People'
Did you all know that Trey Grayson, Rand Paul's opponent in the Republican Party for the Senate Seat in Kentucky, is currently the Secretary of State and is responsible for making sure that the election is fraud free?
Did you know that fraud in the elections in Kentucky has already been proven in the court of law under Trey Grayson's watch?
Who wants to take bets on a *close* race with Trey winning?
Ted Jackson is just another GOP hack responsible for the distruction of the Republican Party. These types are only interested in power and control. They are no different than their Democratic cohorts. People like Rand Paul run to serve their state and country, not to benefit themselves. We have many fine Republicans, Democrats out there, unfortunately almost none are in the party apparatus. What matters is fidelity to the Constitution and Justice. Trey Grayson is just another party hack waiting his turn to feed at taxpayers expense.
Whether out of state money or personal wealth--big money does not equal big support in KY-- Example: Billy Harper for Gov in '07.
Funny that they would pull the purist Republican credentials b.s. ... for back in the early 90's while Grayson - 'The Republican' - was a Clinton delegate, Rand Paul was forming his tax fighting group. Trey started his political career as a democrat, and his people dare to call Rand "Not a Republican"? Rand walks the walk, Trey only talks the talk. Conservatives are sick of Rinos and they are gravitating to the true conservative Republican Rand Paul!
Rand is just beginning.
His numbers will grow.
In short order, folks will be wondering why Grayson is even bothering to stay in the race.
I hope, when the time comes, he will be mature enough to drop his campaign. This race is bigger than one man's ego, bigger than Kentucky. This one is important to conservatives across the country.
And they are all paying attention. We truly need this seat.
Phantom number up to 631,000 dollars and growing.
"People will be reminded about who has
worked with the party, and who has spent
the time cultivating party support."
That's what Rand Paul is counting on.
I would take a bullet to the head before I'd vote for a know-nothing RINO shill like Grayson. Show some class and drop out, Grayson. That whole "if I don't tow the establishment line" justification for your corrupt party hackishness is no longer relevant with a patriot like Rand in the race. Rand Paul 2010!
Rand Paul will win because he's got a clear message that's completely consistent from top to bottom. He's 100% conservative and believes in limited constitutional government PLUS, he's not a career politician... That's what people want in Kentucky.
Rand is the real deal
Jackson's like "Bagdad Bob" ... while the bombs are falling ... "all is well, all is well." Victory! Glad for Grayson's sake he's an "unpaid" advisor. If not, I'd be asking for a refund.
I'm not sure if the poll is accurate or not. All I know is that Grayson gets most of his donations from lobbyists and lawyers. I'm sick of this. If Rand gets most of his donations from the man-on-the-street then I'd be willing to support him over Grayson. Besides, with RHINOS like McCain and Specter.... I'm too scared that Grayson would just be another one, considering that he supported Bill Clinton.
I don't know about these numbers, but Ted Jackson is a dolt.
"Jackson is an informal unpaid advisor to Grayson's campaign."
He wishes he were relevant. I'm an informal unpaid advisor to the Grayson campaign too. How about that?
Rand will win this race.
His supporters are too dedicated and will launch multiple Money Bombs on his behalf waking up the sleeping public in Kentucky.
GO RAND GO
Ted Jackson said: "That's really not a concern," Jackson said, "There is no question about Trey's conservative credentials. People will be reminded about who has worked with the party," and who has spent the time cultivating party support.
"Rand Paul is not a Republican. It will become more apparant."
EXCUSE ME? Rand Paul has always been a Republican, even when Trey Grayson was a registered Democrat campaigning for Bill and Hillary Clinton. Are those the "credentials" Ted Jackson admires about Grayson?
Rand Paul is not only a Republican, he is THE ONLY Republican that Republican voters can depend on to stay Republican when he takes his oath of office. Trey Grayson admitted earlier this year that he'd never even read the Kentucky Constitution, and yet he swore an oath to protect and defend it.
Nice try Ted. Who's going to be stepping up to be the next attack dog for Grayson?
At this stage of the game, polls are useful only for fund raising purposes and early team building efforts. Hillary Clinton was going to be the next President of the United States at this time in 2007.
Since Rand Paul isn't experienced at politicking, certainly his numbers will go in a new direction once he starts getting out there and campaigning, and anyone's guess is as good as mine which direction that will be. In essence, the campaign really hasn't started yet.
"phantom" number is now above 700k
Go Rand Paul
Conservatives like myself are growing increasingly disgusted with the Republican party. We are sick of seeing our elected leaders spend like Democrats and then claim to represent the people.
We need more Politicians like Rand Paul who will represent real Americans with conservative values instead of a Republican Party shill who will work for the Lobbiest.
Mr. Jackson is correct on one item. Rand Paul is not a Republican in the sense of the Republican party we have had the last 15 years. Rand is though a true conservative and is exactly what those of us who call ourselves conservatives and feel we no longer have any say in our government. It no longer matters in most cases if the candidate is Republican or Democrat because the corruption runs so deep that the only real difference is the rhetoric. Rand Pauls message is what true conservatives think and feel and expect out of our leaders. This will be a huge test for the Republican party to show the true conservatives that they are committed to coming back to their roots and not just saying the right things then acting no different than the Democratic Party. I will campaign for Dr. Paul throughout the campaign and donate to his cause. Change for the the Republican party will not come easy but with candidates like Rand there is a small glimmer of hope.
Question. If the poll is so inaccurate, and Simmons really does enjoy the support of the overwhelming majority that Jackson thinks he does, then why is it that after 2 days of this blog post being up, the comments are overwhelmingly pro-Paul, and anti-Simmons, with the few that aren't either of those things being neutral. If Simmons is so popular, where are all the comments from his supporters? My guess is that what little support Simmons does have in that poll is only because of his name recognition among Republicans in the state who unenthusiastically say they'll support him because he's the only guy with an R after his name they know about yet. The more that changes, and the more they learn about the small government alternative they have in Dr. Paul, the more Simmons' numbers will sink. Rest assured, the Simmons camp is very worried right now, notwithstanding the optimistic face they sent Jackson out to present.
Rand Paul's supporters, at least those popping up here, appear to have very serious issues with the truth. Trey Grayson was never a "Clinton delegate", and even if he had been, that is quite irrelevant as he would have been 20 years old. A rather stupid argument even if it was true as to Trey Grayson's current credentials.
And of course, there's Rand Paul's open and unashamed associations with the kook 9/11 "truth" movement that promotes the idiotic notion that 9/11 was caused by the U.S. government and not terrorists - probably a major source of his father's money bomb funding and probably his own as well. Just look up on google "Alex Jones" and "Rand Paul" together and proof of this will be found immediately - Paul has repeatedly appeared on that guy's show, even. Certainly no self-respecting Republican would vote for Rand Paul if they knew this information. So it appears Paul's supporters' strategy is to lie about and smear Trey Grayson, for no other reason than he's just "in the way" and try as desperately as they can to say that Rand Paul is a "true conservative" and hide his real associations, then come up with conspiracies of a so-called "establishment" doing the same things they themselves are doing. The establishment choice was David Williams, as anyone even remotely following this race knows, and Trey Grayson scared them off - they didn't get their way.
DeeW - what the kinda doublespeak is "current credentials"?
There's only credentials.
Who started the Taxpayer's Union?
Who actually fights?
Who sits behind a desk?
As for 9/11 truth - you hacks always bring that up when in fact he never agrees with that.
Besides who's the kool aid drinker? The one who doesn't believe in Al Qaeda? Or the one who believes in club gitmo?
Oh, "Phantom" number up to $734,000.00.
Trey Grayson used to be a Democrat and campaigned for Bill Clinton in the 90’s. At that time Rand Paul was busy founding an anti-tax group in Kentucky. Grayson is to the left of George W. Bush and John McCain, two names that don’t exactly warm conservative Republicans hearts. Rand Paul is more like a Goldwater/Reagan Republican. He actually talks about term limits, cutting spending, and having a balanced budget. He doesn’t just deliver sound bites about lower taxes.
So much for that being a phantom number.
http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/9/2/KY/355
I would not judge Rand too quickly for ssociation with Alex Jones. Although Alex is somewhat radical in his approach to seeking the truth, he uncovers a lot which is uncomfortable for those who are well ingrained in deceit. Rand is not afraid to listen to controversy, which is what gains respect for him and his father. The majority of the commissioners investigating 9/11 said there was an agreement to lie about their findings. Why would any true patriot not want to continue to question the inconsistencies in the report. They could only be protecting their self serving interests. Cowards. The American people are not afraid to question and don't want anyone in office who will shy away from
conflict.