1:37 PM Tue, Jul 07, 2009 | Permalink
Joe Arnold
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What do votes on alcohol and horse racing in Frankfort have to do with Kentucky's Congressional delegation in Washington D.C.? Maybe everything.
This spring, when Republicans in Kentucky's Senate voted to institute a tax on alcohol sales that angered major players in Kentucky's bourbon industry, they created enemies with deep pockets.
This month, when Senate Republicans killed a plan that would have put slot machines at horse racing tracks across Kentucky, they made even more enemies who have deep pockets.
But what does this have to with Kentucky's Congressional delegation in Washington D.C.? Everything. These two actions by State Senate Republicans might provide enough election fodder for Democrats to take back control of the State Senate in 2010, just one year before the state legislature will begin the redistricting process.
Every 10 years, the state legislature redraws the boundaries for state representative, state senate, and U.S. House districts, based on results of the U.S. Census.
The last time Kentucky redistricted was in 2001. Republicans had control of the State Senate and were able to prevent Democrats from drastically altering the boundaries and potentially complicating races for incumbent Republicans. Make no mistake - this is a very political process. There is often no rhyme or reason to the boundaries for these districts other than raw politics. Just look at Kentucky's First District, which stretches from Paducah to within 60 miles of Lexington. It makes no sense for McCracken County and Adair County to be in the same district, but that's how the politicians drew the lines and so that's how it has been for 10 years.
By making enemies out of special interests with very deep pockets, Senate Republicans might find themselves on the defensive in several races that could flip control of the State Senate to Democrats. With virtually no chance that Republicans will win the state House, that would put Democrats in full control of the redistricting process.
This could be bad news for Kentucky's Congressional Republicans. Democrats could draw the lines to make one district more Democratic (by putting more Democrat-leaning counties into a certain district) or by putting two Republican Members of Congress (such as Cong. Ed Whitfield in the First and Congressman Brett Guthrie in the Second) together in the same district, forcing two incumbents to face each other in a party primary and leaving another seat open.
They could also attempt to take out a Republican Congressman by drawing him in to a district with a Democrat and forcing a race where previously there was none. What if a district were drawn that contained just a sliver of Republican-leaning Northern Kentucky - a sliver that contained Cong. Geoff Davis's neighborhood - and the rest Democrat-leaning Central Kentucky, including the Lexington home of Congressman Ben Chandler? While both are accomplished politicians, taking his Northern Kentucky base away from Rep. Davis and forcing him to run in Lexington against Rep. Chandler would be an advantage for Democrats trying to dump one of the most politically savvy Republican leaders in Kentucky.
Redistricting is a major moment in politics that happens once a decade. The 2010 legislative elections in Kentucky will determine who has a seat at the table for this important decision. Senate Republicans were already defending some Democratic-leaning territory before making well-funded enemies. Democratic strategists are undoubtedly licking their chops at the chance to take back control of the state Senate in 2010 and then draw lines in 2011 that put Republicans in a bad position for at least 10 years.
Very good piece, Joe. Much is on the line in 2010, and KY Senate Republicans have alienated two key industries with two votes that are very bad for business. The churches are leading them straight off a cliff.