Using the realclearpolitics.com electoral college map as a base, Jennings made one adjustment that makes the electoral college contest a virtual dead heat.

With 270 electoral college votes needed to win the presidency, the online map currently gives Barack Obama a 217-189 lead. While real clear politics rates Florida as a toss up, Jennings rates Florida as "leans McCain." With Florida's 27 electors, that makes it 217-216 for Obama, with 105 electors in the toss-up category.

Jennings also changes Georgia from leans McCain to solid McCain because he says within the last 24 hours. the Obama campaign has pulled some resources from Georgia to focus on more competitive states.

The urban vs. rural, coasts vs. heartland electoral college map looks a lot like the 2004 map (Bush:286 - Kerry:252).

In the 2008 race, the industrial midwest is a toss-up cluster. Another toss-up state is Virginia, which Bush/Cheney won handily in 2004.

Just weeks ago, New Mexico was considered a solid Obama state, since the Palin nomination, it's rated a toss up. Jennings knows New Mexico well. He ran the Bush campaign there in 2004. He says for all of 2004, Bush was down, but at the end of the campaign, he had pulled even and Bush eked out a victory.

Jennings says both Obama and McCain have a chance to win New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada.

Jennings also shows WHAS11.com how the campaigns are prioritizing their attention by dividing the toss-up states into two tiers. Tier 1 toss ups with 71 total electoral votes are: Ohio (20), Pennsylvania (21), Michigan(17) and Virginia (13). Jennings believes the winner of Ohio is 95% likely to win the presidency, in part because whoever wins Ohio is also more likely to win other industrial midwest voters.

The Tier 2 toss-ups with 34 total electoral votes are: Indiana(11), Colorado(9), Nevada(5) New Mexico(5) and New Hampshire(4).

Finally, Jennings says the lightning rod which is Sarah Palin is continuing to make the election Obama vs. Palin rather than Obama vs. McCain, which is very unusual.

"My poltical advice to Obama," Jennings offered, "would be to stop commenting on the second half of your opponent's ticket and get back on message."

"My advice to McCain is to keep riding this horse because Sarah Palin is doing a very good job of stoking enthusiasm among the base. That means bigger crowds. I know they are raising money on the internet and planning to raise money on events with her. And so, for as long as he can continue to ride this wave, he needs to do it. Because, never before has his campaign generated this much enthusiasm as it has with Palin."