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Mark Hebert
July 2008
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Boswell, Guthrie in Virtual Dead Heat in 2nd

11:15 PM Mon, Jun 30, 2008 |
Mark Hebert

The first independent poll in the 2nd District Congressional race shows democrat David Boswell and republican Brett Guthrie in a statistical tie if the election were held today.

The WHAS 11/Survey USA poll shows Boswell leading his fellow state senator by a 47%-44% margin. The 4.3% margin of error makes this a virtual dead heat with 9% of likely voters saying they're undecided. Boswell and Guthrie are vying for the seat that's being vacated by the retiring congressman Ron Lewis, a republican who held the seat for 14 years. The Cook Report rates the 2nd District as solidly republican but this poll seems to show that Boswell's statewide name recognition from his days at Agriculture Commissioner may be nullifying Guthrie's party registration at this point.

The poll shows Guthrie (R) Bowling Green and Boswell (D) Owensboro tied among male voters (47-47) with females favoring the democrat by a 48-42 margin. Guthrie has a hefty 10 point lead among voters over 65 years old but Boswell has the same margin among voters 18-34 and an 11 point edge among voters 50-64 years old. Folks who identified themselves as "independent" made up just 4% of the responses and they choose Guthrie by a 48%-31% count.

Both sides should be crowing about the poll.....Guthrie claiming he's in a virtual tie early in the campaign despite Boswell's better name recognition.....Boswell claiming he's winning in a district that's been horribly unfriendly to democratic candidates for federal offices.



1 Comments

RR said:

Mark,

This is one of my pet peeves. Please don't take this personally, but most journalists are math impaired.

A 47%-44% race is exactly that. It is not "statistical tie". A 4.3% margin of error means
that It is possible that the results could be off by 4.3% in EITHER direction. It is possible that the results could be 51.3%-44% or it could be 42.7%-44%.

It is most likely that the results would be 47%-44% on the day that the poll was taken.

RR


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