New Gov's Race Poll
Steve Beshear is still way ahead of Governor Fletcher, according to the latest Survey USA/WHAS 11 poll.
The poll shows Beshear leading 58%-37% among the 613 likely voters who responded to the phone survey August 4-6. That's almost identical to Beshear's margin in July (59-36).
The really bad news for Fletcher in the August poll is that it oversampled Republicans. 44% of those responding identified themselves as Republicans, 50% Democrats. The ratio of registered Republicans to Democrats in Kentucky is roughly 2:3.
More bad news for Fletcher: Despite hammering on Beshear's pro-casino stance, 79% of those polled say they want to vote on the gaming issue. Just 19% don't.
Of those who say there should be a vote on casinos, Beshear leads 64-32. Of those who don't want a vote, Fletcher leads 59-36.
Fletcher is strongest in western Kentucky with 43% (Beshear 51%) while Beshear continues to crush Fletcher in Louisville and nearby counties (65-31).
The one potential achilles heel for Beshear appears to be voters 65 and older.
Among the elderly set, Beshear leads by 12 points (54-42). Those are the folks who vote religiously. The made up 19% of the survey sample.
Comments
Mark-
The issue here is that many KY residents registered as Dems now ID themselves as Republican. Look at the cross-tabs of any poll.
That is how many Republican candidates (Bush, Bunning, Fletcher in 03, etc.) won in a state with so many Democrats.
This is not anything unusual... the Beshear people "spun you good."
Posted by: Anonymous | August 7, 2007 5:55 PM
Mark - Do you really believe the undecideds are so low? 3 months out?
Posted by: Anonymous | August 7, 2007 9:52 PM
I wonder if a special session is still in the works for next Monday. It seems some senators are having other plans.
Posted by: gino | August 7, 2007 11:14 PM
Mark 5:55
A dem that ID's him or herself as a Repug and votes for Beshear is still a vote for Beshear. Not sure what your point is. Are you saying that Ernie is losing more of his base? I don't see how this is bad for Beshear.
Posted by: Anonymous | August 7, 2007 11:27 PM
5:55 - I find it hard to imagine why anyone would need to spin when they're 20 points ahead in a campaign.
Posted by: Anonymous | August 7, 2007 11:33 PM
05:55, you're a dumbass. The poll measures registration AND ideological leanings. So, you can see what percentage of registered Democrats are conservative in their political leanings. Duh.
Posted by: Anonymous | August 8, 2007 9:41 AM
83% of people in this poll claim to have voted in the primary election!
Posted by: Anonymous | August 8, 2007 9:56 AM
lets get fletcher out
Posted by: michael morton | September 4, 2007 9:23 PM
Polls are like asses theres no way in hell that anyone or anybody can take a poll and know who wins look at Bush and Kerry i call them agenda feel good polls cnn had allready threw in the towel on Bush with glee i might add but look who come out on top and theres some stuff that just come out on beashear he has some explaining to do now it can will change in a heart beat gooday.
Posted by: steve | September 14, 2007 11:52 PM