Jonathan Miller is showing off his own polling numbers which, he says, shows him in second place in the democratic primary. Miller supporter Mark Nickolas of BluegrassReport.com already has some of the information on his web site.
Keep in mind, this is a poll paid for by the candidate and includes supporters, soft supporters and leaners. Miller has been on TV the past two weeks so that would clearly help his numbers. Putting out the polling numbers may also help knock down the persistent rumors that Miller is being pressured by some high level democrats to quit the race and support Steve Beshear. Here's a portion of Miller's polling memo courtesy of BluegrassReport.org:
To: Jonathan Miller
From: The Mellman Group
Re: Kentucky Democratic Primary Survey
Date: April 23, 2007
This analysis represents the findings from a survey of 500 likely Democratic Primary voters. The interviews were conducted by
telephone from April 19-22, 2007, using a sample drawn from a voter-file of registered voters screened for participation in the
2007 Democratic Primary. The margin of error is +/-4.4% at the 95% confidence level, and higher for subgroups.
Our just-finished poll shows the 2007 Democratic gubernatorial primary continues to be wide open with over one in four (26%) voters still undecided. The field is even more tightly bunched together than we saw in our earlier March 1st poll, with Steve Henry’s vote decreasing slightly to 22% and his lead
down to single digits. The only candidates gaining any traction are Jonathan Miller and Bruce Lunsford, who are tied for second with 15% of the vote. Steve Beshear (12%) has dropped to fourth place, while Jody Richards (8%) has dropped to fifth. Miller’s strength is clearly grounded in the traction of his message in the three markets where he is on the air and in second place, ahead of Lunsford, and just behind Henry.
The Race Is Still Wide-Open, With Miller and Lunsford Tied For Second
The race for governor continues to be wide-open, with Henry’s lead
diminishing and Miller and Lunsford the only ones gaining ground. Despite
having lower name recognition than the other major candidates, Miller (15%, up
from 10% in early March) is now tied for second place with Lunsford (up
from 7% in March). Beshear has failed to gain traction, holding at 12%, while
both Henry (22%, down from 24%) and Richards (8%, down from 12%) have
actually lost ground. More than a quarter of the electorate (26%) remains undecided.
Does the memo say anything about the age breakouts in the sample Miller polled? Miller has always made an intentional point of going after younger voters. The Miller-funded poll, then, undoubtedly assumes that the Miller effort is going to successfully expand the electorate. As a result, I bet that if the Miller campaign showed you the age breakouts in the poll, it shows a much higher percentage of voters 30 and under than have actually turned out in any recent Kentucky election. This despite the fact that dramatic expansions of the electorate from one cycle to the next are very, very rare.
The recent polling data posted on this blog today indicate that this supposed Miller campaign poll was a fraud.