Voter / Consumer Research

Memorandum
To: Senator McConnell
From: Jan R. van Lohuizen
Date: April 18, 2007
Re: Survey Results

As per your request, Voter / Consumer Research conducted a brief survey of Kentucky voters
earlier this month. Specifically we interviewed 602 voters by telephone between 4/9 and 4/11.
The margin of error associated with these results is +/- 4.0%. A preliminary overview of the
principal findings includes the following:
As we find across the country, the political environment has not improved for Republicans since last November. It is clear that unless the environment improves for Republicans we should plan to run a vigorous and well-funded campaign – regardless of your opponent. The following data points illustrate the tough climate for Republicans:

√ Forty-seven percent of Kentucky voters think things in the Commonwealth have gotten off on the wrong track; this includes many Republicans who don’t think things are going well in the state. Overall, less than a third (31%) of Kentucky voters believe things in the Commonwealth are going in the right direction.
√ The publicly released February -- Bluegrass Poll, showed President Bush with only a
43% approval rating and a 55% disapproval rating from Kentucky voters.1 Even in this
poor climate for Republicans, our survey shows that Senator McConnell receives a 55% job approval rating from voters with 32% stating they disapprove of his job performance.
(-MORE-)
1 The President’s job approval results are from the publicly released Bluegrass Poll. THE COURIERJOURNAL
BLUEGRASS POLL® is based on telephone interviews conducted Feb. 8-14, 2007, with 801 Kentucky
adults.
Voter / Consumer Research 2
While the survey results show we need to plan an active campaign, the results clearly show we will win in 2008. Given the recent news stories reporting that Charlie Owen intends to challenge you, we looked at his potential candidacy in this survey. Your leadership position and experience are important to Commonwealth voters, as is Charlie Owen's lack of experience. In short, voters are responding to the anti-Republican climate. Kentucky voters don’t know Charlie Owen, and
the more they find out about him, the more his support erodes. The data shows your strength holds up when you play out likely campaign scenarios. Specifically the following results make these points:

Mitch McConnell is only the 2nd person in Kentucky history to lead his party in the US Senate. On this, who do you agree with more (ROTATE)
􀂃 70% People who feel that having someone from Kentucky lead his party in
the Senate is a point of pride to them and will help get more done for the state
/or/
􀂃 18% People who say having someone from Kentucky in a leadership position
does not matter to them
􀂃 5% Neither / other (DNR)
􀂃 7% Don't know (DNR)
􀂃 Refused (DNR) *

A point raised by critics is that Charlie Owen has no prior experience in public office and if elected he would
be 70 years old on the day he was sworn in, one of the oldest freshman Senators in US history. In view of
his age and lack of experience, do you have a very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative or very
negative reaction to Charlie Owen running for Senate?
􀂃 9% Very positive
􀂃 22% Somewhat positive
􀂃 32% Somewhat negative
􀂃 21% Very negative
􀂃 13% Don't know (DNR)
􀂃 2% Refused (DNR)
And based on their positions who are you most likely to vote for for US Senator? (ROTATE)
Charlie Owen who says he won’t be politics as usual, that as minority leader Mitch McConnell is too caught up in Washington politics and isn’t taking the time to get things done for the people of Kentucky
//OR//
Mitch McConnell who says that as Republican leader in the Senate he has proven to be effective in getting things done for Kentucky, that at age 70 Charlie Owen has no experience and will never build up the seniority to be effective for the state
􀂃 29% Charlie Owen
􀂃 55% Mitch McConnell
􀂃 Both of these equally (DNR) *
􀂃 4% Neither of these / other (DNR)
􀂃 10% Don't know (DNR)
􀂃 1% Refused (DNR)