6:47 PM Wed, Mar 04, 2009 | Permalink
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Welcome to Churchill Downs! It's time to gallop on real dirt, and get one critical work before they play My Old Kentucky Home. The hopes and dreams of the Derby trail become reality this week as the horses and the hoards of reporters arrive to stoke the fires of speculation as we approach May 2.
Now every move on the race track and every word around the barns will be carefully dissected as the turf writers look for the angle that will point them toward a winner. If you've ever been on the backside during Derby week, you know that the scribes of the media probably know too much by Derby Eve. They're inundated with this angle and that. By race day, they are unable to see the winner for the piles of manure that have been spread by connections.
The Derby is an annual puzzle and the final piece will fall into place on May 2. So, can we tell the future, by looking at past performances and workouts during the next weeks. As always, everybody in Louisville is now a horse expert and we'll give it a shot.
1. I Want Revenge.
He's number one because he amazed everybody in the Wood Memorial.
He has great courage and a determined young jockey in Joe Talamo. In the Wood, I Want Revenge broke in the air, and played bumper cars with the field for a mile and an eighth. Then he split horses and ran away with a Grade One Derby prep. Now, there's a little soap opera involving a dust up in New York over trainer Jeff Mullins breaking a rule. He gets seven days in "time out" but not until after Derby.
2. Friesan Fire
It's been a long time between races, so Larry Jones worked his Derby horse a mile this week at Keeneland and everything is still on course.
The mile work was designed to make up for the seven week layoff since the Louisiana Derby. This is not a spectacular looking horse, but he beat all comers at the Fairgrounds. But now he faces champions from the rest of the country.
3. Quality Road.
He's big, he's good, but is he injured?
At the vey least, he has a problem.
Quality Road is training around a quarter crack while they patch his hoof and try to hold it together for the Derby. It worked for Big Brown so maybe Quality Road can recover in the next three weeks. If he's sound, the Florida Derby winner is a lock to hit the board at Churchill. But, is he OK?
4. Pioneer of the Nile.
It's like old times at Churchill. Bob Baffert is back with his bagfull of quips and a Derby contender in the barn. Pioneer of the Nile is by Empire Maker and his pedigree should translate very well to dirt, but it's that lack of experience on dirt that causes some concern. On the positive side, he gets Garrett Gomez in the saddle and has beaten everybody in California including I Want Revenge.
5. Musket Man
He's a double graded stakes winner now, after a big move in the Illinois Derby. I'm not sure if winning the Tampa Bay Derby and the Illinois race qualifies him to race with the top four, but he is a winner. And three weeks from now, you'll probably get a good price. He's certainly a play in the exotics.
6. General Quarters.
Here's the horse that Louisville will love. If this horse wins the Derby, Disney will make a movie out of the story. General Quarters is a former claimer, who is the one horse in a one horse stable. He's now won Derby prep races on dirt and Polytrack for trainer Tom McCarthy. And if you saw him win the Bluegrass Stakes, you know he's a runner. General Quarters has a real shot.
7. Chocolate Candy.
This chocolate tart is looking sweeter and sweeter. First he blisters 5 furlongs in :59 and change on the Pro-Ride at Santa Anita, and then he gets Mike Smith as his Derby jockey. Smith knows the way to the winners circle at Churchill. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer will ship to Churchill quickly so Chocolate Candy can get in two works before the Derby.
8. Papa Clem
Papa Clem shed the bridesmaid role at Oaklawn and is now a stakes winner on dirt. In winning the Arkansas Derby, he comes to Louisville out of a race that has produced a lot of Derby runners and winners, like Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, and Curlin. Papa Clem is a son of Smart Street, so you know distance is in his pedigree. And, the real Papa Clem, is the father of trainer Bo Hirsch.
9 Win Willy.
He finished fourth in the Arkansas Derby, but with his money from winning the Rebel Stakes, the Derby is still probable. Win Willy is a closer and might actually like the added distance of the Derby. This son of Monarchos might be passing tiring horses at the end of the Derby and be around for a piece of the superfecta on May 2.
10. Hold Me Back
The connections of Hold Me Back believe the Bluegrass Stakes set their horse up perfectly for Churchill Downs. Hold Me Back couldn't catch General Quarters at Keeneland but Bill Mott thinks his horse might be ready to peak in about three weeks. The Derby winner has often come from the second or third place winner in the Bluegrass. Most recently, Street Sense used the Poly to prepare for dirt.
11. Dunkirk.
Ran a fine race in the Florida Derby and it was just his third start. But his jockey, Garrett Gomez chose Pioneer of the Nile and that leaves Edgar Prado to pick up the pieces for Todd Pletcher. I still think this horse looked worn out at the end of the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby is going to be a stretch. But it's the Derby and the connections are ready to run.
12. Desert Party.
It's appears that both Godolphin horses will run in the Derby, and both could be serious contenders.
Desert Party and stablemate Regal Ransom give this Derby an international flavor, but do they fit. They've been running on dirt in Dubai and that translates very well to the Churchill surface, but it's difficult to compare them to the horses running in this country.
Plus, will the long travel time have some affect on their chances.
13. Regal Ransom.
Actually beat Desert Party in the UAE Derby so, he might be the better choice for May 2. This horse is by Distorted Humor and the pedigree works for the Derby distance.
Godolphin got the horses to Churchill in plenty of time and Regal Ransom has already worked a :59 and change bullet. This is the most serious Godolphin Derby effort in several years.
14. West Side Bernie.
Ran a very respectable second in the Wood Memorial after a clunker race at Turfway. This Bernstein has been a pretty consistent horse and might be somebody to consider in the exotics. I don't see him winning, but he might mess up a few superfectas.
15. Square Eddie.
Welcome back Square Eddie.
Ran a nice race in the Lexington and his third place is enough to get him on the van to Louisville.
Doug O'Neill says he was proud of the way Square Eddie bounced back from a fractured leg. The horse actually had the lead for a moment, but was passed in the stretch by Advice. Advice would be WinStars third Derby horse, but they may be leaning against the entry.
Friesan Fire is my pick! Ran a great race in the LA. derby on a sloppy track, winning easliy.Papa clem wasn't even a factor. Also, won easliy in other too starts. By the way you guessed it, I'm from LA.
I will be cheering for Friesan Fire on Derby Day. If the pedigree I saw is correct, he is line bred on the bottom back to the "immortal" Secretariat. Would that not be a miracle...one of his progeny winning the Triple Crown.