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January 8, 2008

Football by the numbers: Those numbers look good for New England

By Michael Salfino

Last week we made such a big deal about net yards per pass attempt (YPA), and the team with the better regular season net-YPA lost all four games. So that invalidates the stat, right?

Not exactly. The team with the better YPA (including sack yards) in last week's games went 3-1. In a typical NFL week, 80 percent of the teams with the higher YPA win.

The Steelers were the exception. But they threw an extra interception (typically worth six points even without the TD return that resulted from one Ben Roethlisberger misfire) and had a kickoff returned to the 1-yard line. Without those plays, they likely win comfortably.

Again, every 15 yards from scrimmage more than your opponent gives you, on average, a one-point edge on the scoreboard. The Steelers had a 100-yard edge from scrimmage, but gave away way more than that via the extra pick, essentially a kickoff-return TD and a lost fumble (average cost: three points). Note that we don't typically factor in special teams yards, because kickoff returns are a big part of that. And if you're returning a bunch of kickoffs, you're in trouble.

The problem with stats like net-YPA as a predictive tool is that they represent norms, averages that teams very often significantly surpass or fall well short of. And that, dear reader, is why they call it "gambling." Keep your money in your pocket and enjoy the real-life action or you'll end up like my friend Miles Benelli, who went the wrong way last week on Alien vs. Predator: Requiem.

The following is purely for entertainment purposes.

Over the regular season, Green Bay outpassed opponents by an average of 1.3 yards per attempt, more than twice what Seattle managed. Green Bay's defense was sixth-best in points allowed on the strength of its third-best finish in preventing third-down conversions. The Seahawks' offense was 26th in converting third downs. Packers 31, Seahawks 17.

The Jaguars' secondary was exposed last week by Ben Roethlisberger. Imagine what Tom Brady will do should the conditions in New England cooperate. The Patriots were 26th in yards allowed per rush, so the Jags should pile up some rushing yards until those slingshots prove no match for Brady's howitzers. Patriots 38, Jaguars 24.

The Colts' defense is second-best in YPA allowed, sixth in yards per rush and first in points per game. It's like they've switched uniforms with the Patriots of prior years. The Chargers are first in interception rate, but I doubt that Peyton Manning falls victim to picks. The Chargers' offense limped to a 25th-place finish in first downs per game. You must sustain long drives versus the Colts Cover 2. Colts 24, Chargers 13.

There's a myth that it's difficult to get that third consecutive win versus a division rival. Since division play began in 1970, a team has faced an opponent it swept in the regular season 17 times and gone 11-6 in the third game. Dallas' offense would be crippled without Terrell Owens (questionable, ankle). He limped through practice Monday and participated in Tuesday's walk through. Cowboys 24, Giants 21.

Now, some player recommendations.

Buy

Joseph Addai, RB, Colts: San Diego's run defense was 17th in yards allowed per carry. Expect the Chargers' front seven to have all eyes on Manning.

Hold

Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants: Rookie Ahmad Bradshaw appeared to pass him on the depth chart in the second half on Sunday. But Jacobs averaged 115 rushing yards the final three weeks of the season and 5.0 per carry for all of 2007.

Terrell Owens, WR, Cowboys: Strictly a guess, given our early-week deadline. But Owens played at an MVP level in the Super Bowl loss to New England weeks before his broken leg should have been fully healed. Expect at least a couple of big plays.

Sell

Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers: Don't expect Antonio Gates (toe) to play. Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers will try in vain to gain separation against the most technically sound secondary in football.

David Garrard, QB, Jaguars: Was terrible in Pittsburgh, but got his first playoff pelt anyway. The Jags aren't built to win a high-scoring game like they need to win on Saturday night. Jacksonville's defense is very overrated.

Posted by Mike McDermott  at 3:43 PM | Permalink

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