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January 15, 2008

Football by the Numbers: Hold on to the ball, win the game

By Michael Salfino
Fantasy Sports Columnist

The recipe for winning playoff games in the NFL is the same as in the regular season.

The main ingredient: limit turnovers. Net turnovers remains the leading winning indicator in NFL football. But not all turnovers are equal. Interceptions are far more costly than lost fumbles. I speculate why below in the player recommendations.

The one lost fumble that is almost as costly as a pick is the one that comes following a sack. But there are no qualifiers for interceptions. Each one costs the team that threw it six points, on average, according to many years of regression analysis. It's difficult to make those points up in other areas. Teams that throw fewer interceptions than their opponents are 5-0 thus far in the playoffs.

A hair below turnovers is averaging more yards per pass attempt (YPA). Sack yards must be included (they are in team stats, never in player stats). Teams with better YPA than their opponents are 7-1 to date this postseason. The one outlier, Pittsburgh, threw one more pick than the Jaguars in Week 18.

Throw for the worse YPA while tossing more picks and you're losing 95 percent of the time.

I've extolled the virtues of the next tier of key stats: third-down efficiency, controlling the ball with "move" plays (runs plus completions) and getting into the red zone more times than your opponent (irrespective of what you do once you get there). Teams winning any one of these categories do not have winning records thus far in the postseason, which is only mildly suprising. Other stats have a negligible impact on who wins and loses.

On to this week's games:

San Diego tries to end New England's perfect season a week after shocking Indy with a bunch of backups on offense. Whoever plays will have success against the mediocre Patriots defense. But you can't stop Tom Brady with the NFL defensive equivalent of a batting practice fastball. The Jaguars last week tried to rush four and drop seven. Two Brady passes hit the ground all night. The Chargers need to really go after him with the heat of six or seven rushers, or sit back with eight or nine guys in coverage. Since NFL defensive coordinators are really bad at thinking outside the box: Patriots 38, Chargers 20.

The Giants have played around Eli Manning this postseason. Last week, they were outgained by more than 100 yards from scrimmage and managed only 57 yards the entire second half. Dallas had the ball for 13 more minutes. But the Giants averaged 7.7 YPA to 5.0 for the Cowboys, and Tony Romo threw one pick to none for Manning. The snow could not cool down Brett Favre last week. New York will have to blitz him heavily, like they did Romo with great success in the fourth quarter last week. The Giants have allowed 5.12 YPA this postseason against the No. 10 and No. 2 YPA QBs in football. Now they go against No. 5 (Favre). Expect the defense takes a step back this week. Manning won't step up. Despite being wrong about the Giants three weeks straight: Packers 31, Giants 20.

Now some player recommendations.

Buy

Ryan Grant, RB, Packers: This Giants summer castoff overcame two early lost fumbles versus the Seahawks. When that happens, coaches don't change the game plan. Throw two early picks, however, and they pack away the passing game with mothballs. Grant is running as well as any back in football.

Hold

Randy Moss, WR, Patriots: His matchup with fellow freak Antonio Cromartie is the key individual battle of Week 20. Cromartie is Moss' equal in all athletic measurables, something Moss has never seen.

Sell

Michael Turner, RB, Chargers: LaDainian Tomlinson says he'll play despite a hyper-extended knee. He'll likely be limited if he does. The over/under on Chargers rushes is low because the Patriots are going to score at least 30 points.

Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers: He's a punk, getting into a trash-talking match with Indy fans moments after San Diego held off Peyton Manning on fourth down. This follows a shouting match with the Broncos sideline in Week 16. His sprained MCL didn't shut him up, but is typically a one-month injury. Even if he plays, he won't be able to practice.

Posted by Mike McDermott  at 12:41 PM | Permalink

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