Projo Politics Blog

Journal Washington bureau chief John E. Mulligan files this report as he leaves Denver, where he has been covering the Democratic National Convention:

Don't get too caught up in the national presidential horse race polls between Barack Obama and John McCain.

The only poll that counts is in the Electoral College, so here's a sketch of some of the states to watch:

- The big swing states so crucial in the past two elections will remain important battlegrounds: Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania.

- Obama's campaign is betting on some states that have traditionally gone Republican. Virginia with its burgeoning Democratic population in the suburbs of Washington tops the list.

- Another Southern state on the list is North Carolina. Montana is among the small, traditionally GOP states that Obama will contest, campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters before Obama's speech last night at the Democratic National Convention.

- The Democrats put Denver at the center of the political universe for a reason. The mountain states of Colorado and New Mexico, along with neighboring Nevada, are all on the Democratic target list, in part because they have substantial Hispanic populations.

- Like President Bush before him, McCain may have a good shot at carrying a substantial fraction of the Hispanic vote because, by Republican standards, he has built a progressive reputation on immigration issues. But there's a catch. McCain has muted that facet of his immigration profile, focusing on message more soothing to voters concerned about immigrants entering the United States illegally: secure the borders first.

- Take note, incidentally, that Obama did not make immigration a dominant issue in his platform or convention. Immigration is a thorny issue for both candidates.

- How blue is New England? Well, one measure is seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. The liberal Chris Shays of Connecticut is the only Republican in the whole region.

Plouffe said, however, that New Hampshire could be close.

As for the Ocean State, "If Obama can't win Rhode Island, he can't win the election," former Gov. Bruce Sundlun, a Democrat, said early this week.

Back at the airport in Denver, as Mulligan dictated his report by phone today, the news was breaking that McCain has apparently picked little-known Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate.

Snatches of loud voices could be heard, as other passengers on the plane headed to the Baltimore Washington International Airport -- many of them political types -- were already dissecting his choice.

 Tags  Democratic Convention Electoral College McCain Palin

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