The panel of economists from the region's six states expects an annual growth rate of 1.6 percent this quarter and 1.7 percent next quarter. The economists then expect "a slow and modest recovery," peaking at 3.4 percent growth in early 2009, according to the latest twice-a-year forecast presented at the economic organization's fall conference in Boston.

Regional gross product growth is expected to average 2.2 percent per year through 2011, below the 2.6 percent the group had forecast last spring.

The group attributed the lowering of expectations to "the broadening effects of the national credit crisis, and economic vulnerabilities extending from the housing market to other sectors of the economy."

The economists predict New England will continue to experience slower gross product growth than the nation over the next few years, with New Hampshire posting the region's fastest growth at 3 percent. All other states in the region are expected to see gross product growth of at least fourth-tenths of a percentage point below the U.S. annual average.

New England's current housing price decline is to reach its steepest point during the current quarter, with prices continuing to fall through next year's second quarter. Economists then expect a slow, modest housing recovery, with the region's median price expected to fall 10 percent from the pre-slump peak to the downturn's low point.

After a long run of steep price appreciation, New England's housing market switched to a buyer's market beginning last year.

New England's jobs growth is expected to average eight-tenths of a percentage point per year through 2011, compared with the national average of 1.1 percent.

Ross Gittell, the organization's forecast manager and a professor at the University of New Hampshire, said New England's economic prospects have recently been hurt by lagging population and employment growth compared with the nation as a whole.

"There is no single factor causing vulnerability in New England's regional competitiveness, but rather a confluence of factors that will have to be addressed to ensure a strong regional economic future," Gittell said. "Noteworthy among these factors are indications that the region is experiencing a decline in 'attractiveness' to young adults and businesses expanding employment."

The New England Economic Partnership is a 36-year-old nonprofit forecast organization with members from private industry, government and academia.