For one thing, Reed said, al-Zarqawi's effectiveness as a leader has been reduced for some months by the pressure of the manhunt, so his death may not make for a major loss of "operational" capacity by the small terrorist cells that are likely to continue their campaign of car bombings and other violence.

Reed noted, moreover, that the small bands of foreign terrorists embodied by al-Qaida constitute only one part of the multi-faceted insurgency against the struggling Iraqi government. He noted that a major force in the insurgency springs from the Sunni Muslims bloc that ruled Iraq for generations. Some of its members are making war against a central government - and the American support behind it.

In addition, there is the continuing and sometimes violent struggle for ascendancy among the three major population groups that have an interest in the new regime - Shiite Muslims, Sunni Muslims and ethnic Kurds, Reed said. There remains a serious threat that these competing groups will splinter into full-fledged civil war, Reed said.

Still, al-Zarqawi's death can be of significant help to the cause of a stable Iraq, depending on "how it is handled," Reed said. One strong first step toward that end was that President Bush and other U.S. officials took a back seat to Iraq's prime minister in announcing the successful operation to kill al-Zarqawi, Reed said.

U.S. officials should continue that restraint, Reed said, recalling "how much of the rhetoric going back over several years that I think this administration has come to regret."

Reed pointed, for example, to the official euphoria that greeted the capture of Saddam Hussein; within weeks it gave way to the reality of a depening insurgent crisis, he recalled.