Hitters

BUY

Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees: We've seen better swings over the last month (.323 average, 18 RBIs), and Cano's notorious for picking up his game after the break (his OPS jumps 176 points in the second half). You probably can't buy him low in the Tri-State area, but in other areas of the country give it a shot.

Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B, Indians: He was dreadful with the Tribe earlier in the year, but a 34-game tune-up in the minors hit the spot (.326 average, four homers, two steals) and earned him a recall to Cleveland. Cabrera isn't going to make anyone forget Robby Alomar, but he was a useful player over the final quarter of 2007 and perhaps he'll be able to recapture that here. A decent longshot play for AL-only leagues.

SELL

Carlos Gomez, OF, Twins: His free-swinging approach (96 strikeouts, 14 walks) brings a lot of batting-average risk to the equation, and Gomez has hit the skids on the bases (four steals over his last 39 games). Sell his season numbers to an owner who needs bags, lock in those profits now.

HOLD

Chris Davis, 1B, Rangers: Sure, he strikes out a lot, but the power is real (.655 slugging, six homers), and he's selective enough at the plate (6 walks in 58 at-bats). The Rangers want Davis in the everyday lineup, which is why Hank Blalock is sliding back to third base with Ramon Vazquez moving to the bench.

Adam Jones, OF, Orioles: He's still learning the strike zone, but the O's are happy with his progress; Jones is hitting .322 since the middle of May and Dave Tremblay is giving him a shot in the No. 2 position. No mater what happens to the three minor leaguers involved, Baltimore appears to have fleeced the Mariners in the Erik Bedard trade (keep in mind the Orioles also got George Sherrill).

Pitchers

BUY

Gio Gonzalez, SP, Athletics: It hasn't been the smoothest ride in Triple-A (4.34 E.R.A., 1.36 WHIP), but his 117 strikeouts in 110 innings get your attention, and the roomy park by the bay is a pitcher's best friend. The Athletics hadn't reset their rotation as we went to press, but there's a good chance we'll see this intriguing left-hander recalled.

SELL

Jose Contreras, SP, White Sox: It's very difficult to make your living on the mound at U.S. Cellular Field, and Contreras has been even worse on the road this year (5.85 E.R.A., 1.60 WHIP). Memories of that great 2005 run keep getting hazier and hazier.

HOLD

Justin Verlander, SP, Tigers: Anyone who puts him on a "buy low" list is trying to sneak one by you -- Verlander turned around his season in the middle of May. Run the numbers on his last 12 starts and here's what you get: six wins, 2.73 E.R.A., 67 strikeouts, .209 batting-average against. He might wind up being the AL's best starter in the second half.

John Danks, SP, White Sox: The Rangers have made a number of mistakes trading young players in recent years, and Danks looks like another name for the list. He was good right out of the chute in 2008 and he's showing the ability to make adjustments; July is shaping up to be his best month yet (2.86 E.R.A., 0.82 WHIP, 25 strikeouts against just three walks). Danks has more than enough life on his fastball, but it's his change and curve that give him a chance to be a star in this league.

These recommendations are only for the fantasy week July 21 to 27, unless otherwise suggested.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Alexei Ramirez, 2B/OF, White Sox: Finally getting regular playing time, he's shined since taking over at second, posting a .341 batting average with three home runs and 11 runs batted in over the past month. He's also stolen seven bases this season, making him a nice speed threat for a middle infielder. Facing the Rangers and the Tigers this week, he is a good bet to continue swinging a hot bat.

Edwin Jackson, SP, Rays: He's been brilliant during the past month, posting an E.R.A. of 2.30, going six innings or more in five of his last six turns. He'll face the A's and the Royals this week, two teams that are among the least imposing offensive forces in the majors.

Bench 'em

Jorge Posada, C, Yankees: He just hasn't been the same since returning from shoulder problems, which is obvious considering his .221 batting average and zero home runs over the past month. He's also not happy with playing first base on occasion, feeling he is healthy enough to resume his full-time duties behind the plate. He'll face the Red Sox, who he is batting only .233 against this season, later this week.

Daniel Cabrera, SP, Orioles: The control issues are back, and the strikeout rate remains low. He's posted a 3.94 E.R.A. and 1.59 WHIP with 19 strikeouts over the past month, just enough to damage your ratios while not really helping you in Ks. He'll get his lone start this week against the Angels, who have already beaten him once this season.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers: Finally showing a bit of power, he has emerged as a steady outfield option in July, producing a .346 average along with four home runs. He'll be taking a trip to Coors Field this week, and already has two home runs against Rockies pitchers in '08, making him a strong play in mixed formats.

Josh Johnson, SP, Marlins: After watching his return from Tommy John surgery, I'm a believer in him having a strong second half for the Marlins. He pounded the zone with mid-90s fastballs, a few ticks higher than pre-surgery. He brings his power arsenal into matchups with the Braves and the Cubs this week. His strikeout potential and availability on the waiver wire make him an attractive option going forward.

Bench 'em

Chris Young, OF, Diamondbacks: He's been a huge disappointment to owners this year hoping for a step forward, and his .226 average during the past month proves things haven't improved. To go along with the low average, he's only hit one home run and stolen one base since June 1. If he corrects his poor contact rate (74 percent) he could be special, but those in single-season leagues should find another option that can help now.

Aaron Cook, SP, Rockies: The All-Star sinkerballer has posted a 4.41 E.R.A. over the past month and only has one win to show for it. He'll be taking only one turn this week, on the road against the Reds. Proceed with caution here; in his only matchup against the Reds last season, he got hit around hard over 5 1/3 innings, giving up five earned runs and 10 hits. He's a solid innings eater, but not this week.

I don't know about you, but I really wanted to see J.D. Drew and David Wright pitch Tuesday night. I'm also jonesing for some real baseball to watch and talk about, so let's rip open the notebook and take note of some movement in the stock market.

Pitchers

BUY

Jonathan Broxton, RP, Dodgers: He's got the power package you look for in a closer (mid-90s heat, hard sinker, good slider, better than one strikeout per inning), and the Dodgers will cede him the ninth inning now that Takashi Saito (elbow) is on the shelf for at least six weeks. Does Broxton have the guile to get by when the stakes are highest? We're about to find out, but I wouldn't bet against him.

Chris Volstad, SP, Marlins: His electric first start in LA caught everyone's eye (8.2 innings, five hits, one run, one walk, six strikeouts), and while young pitching is far from the most reliable stock, Volstad does have a pedigree to take note of (he was the 16th overall pick three years ago). Let's see what the 6-7 righty can do working in Florida's spacious home park.

SELL

Jon Rauch, RP, Nationals: He's been super as Washington's ninth-inning man, a fact that hasn't been lost on the rest of the league; the Nats are getting daily calls about the 6-7 reliever. There's probably a better than 50-50 shot that Rauch will be pitching in middle relief for a contender by the beginning of next month.

HOLD

Mike Pelfrey, SP, Mets: The light bulb has gone on over the last two months (6-0, 2.26 E.R.A.), as the young righty is keeping the ball on the ground and in the park (no homers), and even kicking in a few more strikeouts. Working in a big park with a surging club behind you.... Sounds like a good setup to us.

Hitters

BUY

Shane Victorino, OF, Phillies: He's offering a little bit of everything this month (.315, three homers, two steals), and keep in mind he's most often sandwiched between Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley in the dangerous Philadelphia lineup. Yahtzee. Victorino is one of the most underrated outfielders in the fantasy game right now, a five-category contributor who's for some reason under the radar.

SELL

Dan Uggla, 2B, Marlins: Obviously his New York experience was a train wreck (three errors, three strikeouts, six LOB), and his last 32 games that count haven't been all that special either (.237/.336/.466, 43 strikeouts). Does Uggla have the short memory required to get back on track here? You might want to think about selling after his next homer or two.

Skip Schumaker, OF, Cardinals: He's in a .226 rut this month and lineup-jockeying Tony LaRussa hasn't been using him every day. That equals a sell ticket in mixed leagues; you need someone in the mix each and every night.

HOLD

Lance Berkman, OF, Astros: It's hard to expect him to keep that ridiculous .347/.443/.653 line cooking all season, but even if some of the hits stop falling in, Berkman should be a treat to fantasy owners. He's decided to become aggressive on the bases at age 32, picking up 15 bags in 17 attempts, and with 56 walks against 61 strikeouts, the batting average doesn't look like a fluke at all. Don't write off Berkman as a Minute Maid Myth, either -- he's carrying a 1.019 OPS and 11 homers on the road.

Let's conclude our 2008 Fantasy Football Early Bird Special in advance of regular weekly coverage, beginning in August, by examining players who I think are overvalued based on their Average Draft Placement (ADP) in hundreds of summer drafts run by our friends at MockDraftCentral.com.

Don't forget to also reference our 2008 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet, analysis of the impact players of 2008 and coaching/system changes of fantasy note so that you can hit the ground running in preparation for your upcoming drafts.

Starting at the top, at running back, let me be clear that I would gladly own Brian Westbrook (Eagles) and Steven Jackson (Rams). There's nothing wrong with either player. But they're both going ahead of Joseph Addai (Colts), and that's a mistake. This trend developed before world leaked of Peyton Manning's knee surgery that could possibly, but probably not, sideline him Week 1. Addai should be the No. 3 pick in every draft.

I'd pass on Clinton Portis (Redskins), ADP 11th overall. Always be wary of veteran players who rise dramatically from one season to the next. Portis was a fourth-round pick in most leagues last year. Has anything fundamentally changed about him or his situation to warrant a three-round bump? I don't think so. Ledell Betts isn't as much of a threat, presumably, and new head coach (and former Seahawks QB coach) Jim Zorn helped turn Shaun Alexander into a goal-line monster; but Alexander is a better inside runner than Portis, who is game but undersized and a year older with chronic shoulder woes.

You can't come out of the first three rounds with a QB given the greater need for running backs and wide receivers. So pass on Manning and Tony Romo at 17th and 20th, respectively. Again, I beat this into your heads every year, but every owner in a one-QB, 12-team league should go into the draft with the plan of taking two QBs ranked 10-15 on their cheat sheet during the middle rounds of their draft. And it usually pays to add one more for safety in the late rounds when hardly anyone else left has a pulse. This way, you are virtually guaranteed 25 TD passes from your QB starter (who you can mix and match), coming close enough to, say, Manning's value while having another quality running back or wide receiver that the owner opting for an early QB likely lacks.

I'm tired of waiting for (Saints RB) Reggie Bush to perform up to his college press clippings. The price hasn't slid close enough to performance, so I am going to pass anywhere near 30h overall (his ADP). I might reconsider if I'm in a points-per-catch league that also rewards distance scoring, but that's about 5 percent to 10 percent of leagues, tops.

Ronnie Brown is going 31st overall on average and I can't pay this price for a RB coming off a torn ACL on a bad team. Instead, grab Michael Turner (37th), who is at least definitely healthy and not playing for a couple of coaches (Tony Sparano and Dan Henning) who have relied on RB committees.

There's no denying (Rams WR) Torry Holt's Hall of Fame ability. But he's going in the same draft slot (32) as his age, struggled with knee and groin injuries last year, has a new offensive coordinator (Al Saunders, his former WR coach) who likes to emphasize the running game and his QB's health is always a question mark. You need more certainty when drafting a WR in the third round.

Edgerrin James generated very modest returns after I trashed him last year. But some people are taking him, out of desperation I'm sure, as high as the middle of the second round. On average, he's going 39th, which is still too high considering his age and declining skills. James had just seven TDs last year and again averaged less than four yards per carry. Better alternatives at the position who are being drafted later are Julius Jones (Seahawks, 47th), Matt Forte (Bears, 62nd), Kevin Smith (Lions, 74th) and Rashard Mendenhall (Steelers, 78th, by far the best value of this bunch).

Who knows what tomorrow, never mind September, will bring at the QB situation in Green Bay. But we know that the starter for now is Aaron Rodgers, who has no track record of which to speak. So how, then, can you take WR Greg Jennings in the fourth round? I assume that QBs make the receiver. There are exceptions (Terrell Owens, Randy Moss), but those are all-time guys. Greg Jennings is very likely not one of these rare breeds.

Jason Witten (Cowboys) seems like a reasonable play at his ADP of 43rd. But he's not a guy who can beat teams when they make an effort to stop him. His success depends on Terrell Owens' dominance, and Owens is nearing his mid 30s. If you take a TE early, he must be both a guy who is on the field on third downs and one who is physically dominant -- too big for safeties and too fast for linebackers. Witten doesn't fit this bill, though he's a solid pro and roommate of his QB, which always helps.

RB Rudi Johnson (Bengals) has one of the biggest ranges on the board, being drafted anywhere from 36th to 73rd. I'll take him in Round 5 or later, but only at gunpoint in Round 3. Kenny Watson was much better than Johnson last year and now Kenny Irons (ACL) is back and Chris Perry, a former first-round picks, still lurks (on crutches, presumably).

Similar to Johnson is RB Thomas Jones (Jets), being drafted 33rd to 70th. The late range is acceptable. But Leon Washington is more versatile and explosive, and should thus get an increased workload given his Westbrook-like potential.

As baseball catches its collective breath during the All-Star break, let's try to spot the teams and players due for significant surges or dramatic declines.

There are two team stats we use to confirm the validity of current won-loss records. Net on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) merely takes the sum of the bases gained on offense and subtracts it from those allowed by the pitching/defense. I prefer it to net runs, the basis of Bill James' groundbreaking "Pythagorian" theorem, because net-OPS should be the foundation for run differential and is a bigger sample of data.

Typically, the range in net OPS is plus-.100 to minus-.100 (best net OPS team to worst). And this season is thus far playing close to that form. The Red Sox exit the break atop the net OPS leaderboard at plus-.109, the Nationals last at minus-.093.

Last year here, we used net OPS to identify the Cubs and the Yankees as the two teams most likely to surge. We also seriously doubted the Diamondbacks. While Chicago and New York did indeed dramatically surge and punch postseason tickets, Arizona continued to play well enough to finish with the best record in the National League. Still, those results seem encouraging enough to give this stat another look.

This year, the Braves are the biggest net OPS outlier: sixth-best in baseball at plus-.040. If net OPS perfectly correlated with record, they'd be on pace now for about 88 wins, not 77.

Even more lucky than the Braves are unlucky, says net OPS, are the Angels, 19th overall at minus-.010. That should put them on pace to win 79 games. Instead, their intangible/lucky ability to win close contests (36-18) has them on pace for 97 wins.

Net OPS says the division leaders in the AL right now should be the Red Sox, the White Sox and the A's, with the Rays as the wild card. The A's are six games back and arguably packing it in; witness the Rich Harden trade. And even if the Angels play about .500 the balance of the year (as net OPS predicts), they still win 92 games.

In the NL now, net OPS says the division leaders should be the Braves, the Cubs and the Diamondbacks, with the Phillies edging out the Mets as the wild card -- plus-.034 to plus-.032, about a half-game equivalent in the standings. The Phillies really do lead the Mets by exactly that margin -- but the Braves are 6.5 games back and rumored to be in dumping mode like the A's.

Keep one thing in mind if you're persuaded that net OPS has more predictive value than, say, current won-loss records. It only works if the teams in question continue to compile net baserunners and bases at about their current rates, which, while arguably likely, is not remotely guaranteed.

The same is true for players. The data we examine gives us more predictive power by providing larger sample sizes (bigger numbers) than do more conventional baseball statistics. But individual results can widely vary.

Buy

Freddie Sanchez, 2B, Pirates: Hitting .243 on balls in play (BIP) despite a robust 24-percent line-drive rate. When he hit .344 overall in 2006, his BIP average was .364 and his line-drive rate just slightly higher at 27.5 percent. Last year, his BIP was .328.

A.J. Burnett, P, Blue Jays: Typically disappoints due to injury, but the stats say he should have an appreciably better E.R.A. (3.69 instead of his 4.96 actual). The big reason is that 34 percent of his baserunners are scoring; last year, just 24 percent did.

Jeff Francoeur, OF, Braves: He's hit more than .320 with runners in scoring position each of the last three years. This year, .198. His BIP average is .261, it was .337 in '07. Note, though, that the power (rate of fly balls that become homers) has declined four straight years and is now below average.

Hold

Cliff Lee: I depart from many analysts in my belief that homers allowed are largely lucky, too. Give Lee an average rate of homers allowed on fly balls and his E.R.A. spikes more than a run to 3.16, which we'll still gladly take.

Sell

Lance Berkman, 1B, Astros: Has a .370 BIP despite a modest 17.2 line-drive percentage (Ryan Ludwick leads the majors at 27.5 percent line drives). About 75 percent of line drives are hits. Also note that home runs don't count as balls in play.

Casey Blake, 3B, Indians: He's hitting .390 with runners in scoring position. Last year, .190. He's a career .262 hitter. Blake's near 100-RBI pace will decline to about 80 once this "clutchiness" corrects.

Justin Duchscherer, P, A's: His BIP average allowed is .210. Normalize that rate and his E.R.A. grows to 3.35. Then give him an average rate of homers on fly balls and it jumps all the way to 4.16 (my second-half projection).

All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBIs, stolen bases).

* = check status

Last Update: 7/15
Next Update: 7/22

First Base/DH
1. Lance Berkman, Astros
2. Mark Teixeira, Braves
3. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
4. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
5. Ryan Howard, Phillies
6. Prince Fielder, Brewers
7. *Albert Pujols, Cardinals
8. Derrek Lee, Cubs
9. Justin Morneau, Twins
10. *David Ortiz, Red Sox
11. *Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
12. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
13. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
NOTE: Quietly, one of his better years.
14. Jason Giambi, Yankees
15. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
16. Carlos Pena, Rays
17. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
18. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
19. James Loney, Dodgers
20. Joey Votto, Reds
21. Carlos Delgado, Mets
NOTE: He's turned it on of late.
22. Casey Kotchman, Angels
23. Ryan Garko, Indians
24. Paul Konerko, White Sox
25. *Travis Hafner, Indians
26. Jim Thome, White Sox
27. Kevin Millar, Orioles
28. *Todd Helton, Rockies

Second Base
1. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
2. Chase Utley, Phillies
3. Brian Roberts, Orioles
4. Brandon Phillips, Reds
5. Dan Uggla, Marlins
6. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
7. Robinson Cano, Yankees
8. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
9. Alexei Casilla, Twins
NOTE: Small-market surprise.
10. Placido Polanco, Tigers
11. Howie Kendrick, Angels
12. Kelly Johnson, Braves
13. Mark Ellis, Athletics
14. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
15. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
16. Kaz Matsui, Astros
NOTE: Useful when he can stay healthy.
17. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
18. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
19. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
20. Jose Lopez, Mariners
21. *Jeff Kent, Dodgers
22. *Luis Castillo, Mets
23. Clint Barmes, Rockies
24. Jeff Baker, Rockies
25. Felipe Lopez, Nationals
26. *Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
27. Mark Grudzielanek, Royals
28. Jamie Carroll, Indians
29. Aaron Miles, Cardinals
30. Brendan Harris, Twins
31. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals

Shortstop
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
2. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
3. Jose Reyes, Mets
4. Michael Young, Rangers
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Miguel Tejada, Astros
7. Yunel Escobar, Braves
8. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
9. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
NOTE: More selective of late.
10. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
11. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
12. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
13. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
14. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
15. *Edgar Renteria, Tigers
16. *Julio Lugo, Red Sox
17. *Bobby Crosby, Athletics
18. Khalil Greene, Padres
19. *Jerry Hairston, Reds
NOTE: If only he could stay healthy.
20. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
21. *Jason Bartlett, Rays
22. Erick Aybar, Angels
23. *Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
24. Alfredo Amezaga, Marlins
25. Jack Wilson, Pirates
26. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
27. *Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
28. David Eckstein, Blue Jays
29. Omar Vizquel, Giants

Third Base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Ryan Braun, Brewers
4. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
5. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
6. Mike Lowell, Red Sox
7. Evan Longoria, Rays
8. *Chipper Jones, Braves
9. *Chone Figgins, Angels
10. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
11. Alex Gordon, Royals
NOTE: Something's not right here.
12. Joe Crede, White Sox
13. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
14. *Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
15. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
16. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
17. Ty Wigginton, Astros
18. Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
19. Blake DeWitt, Dodgers
20. Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
21. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
22. Melvin Mora, Orioles
23. Jose Castillo, Giants
24. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
25. *Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
NOTE: Might be able to go in second half.
26. *Hank Blalock, Rangers
27. *Eric Chavez, Athletics

Outfield
1. Grady Sizemore, Indians
2. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
NOTE: Maybe he'll return to New York someday.
3. Matt Holliday, Rockies
4. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
5. Carlos Lee, Astros
6. Nick Markakis, Orioles
7. Carl Crawford, Rays
8. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
9. B.J. Upton, Rays
10. *Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
11. Carlos Beltran, Mets
12. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
13. Curtis Granderson, Tigers
14. Adam Dunn, Reds
15. Milton Bradley, Rangers
16. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
17. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
NOTE: He's been a summer stud for Pale Hose.
18. Corey Hart, Brewers
19. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
20. Torii Hunter, Angels
21. Hunter Pence, Astros
22. Jason Bay, Pirates
23. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
24. Nate McLouth, Pirates
25. Jay Bruce, Reds
26. Jose Guillen, Royals
27. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
28. *Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
29. Pat Burrell, Phillies
NOTE: No glove, but legit power.
30. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
31. Shane Victorino, Phillies
32. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
33. *Johnny Damon, Yankees
34. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
35. J.D. Drew, Red Sox
36. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
37. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
38. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
39. Carlos Gomez, Twins
40. Nick Swisher, White Sox
41. *Juan Pierre, Dodgers
42. Aaron Rowand, Giants
43. Xavier Nady, Pirates
NOTE: How much longer is he in Pittsburgh?
44. Josh Willingham, Marlins
45. Randy Winn, Giants
46. David DeJesus, Royals
47. Adam Jones, Orioles
48. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
49. Luke Scott, Orioles
50. David Murphy, Rangers
51. Willy Taveras, Rockies
52. Ken Griffey, Reds
53. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
54. Michael Bourn, Astros
NOTE: Part-time these days, and lower in lineup.
55. Mike Cameron, Brewers
56. *Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
57. *Hideki Matsui, Yankees
58. Chase Headley, Padres
59. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
60. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
NOTE: Welcome back, hacker.
61. Skip Schumaker, Cardinals
62. Melky Cabrera, Yankees
63. Juan Rivera, Angels
64. Ben Francisco, Indians
65. *Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
66. Jack Cust, Athletics
67. Jim Edmonds, Cubs
68. Mark Teahen, Royals
69. *Michael Cuddyer, Twins
70. *Lastings Milledge, Nationals
71. Jason Kubel, Twins
72. Brian Giles, Padres
73. Garret Anderson, Angels
74. Fred Lewis, Giants
75. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
76. Bill Hall, Brewers
77. Brian Giles, Padres
78. Cody Ross, Marlins
79. Delmon Young, Twins
80. Gregor Blanco, Braves
81. Fernando Tatis, Mets
NOTE: Is this a story with legs?
82. Chris Duncan, Cardinals
83. Jonny Gomes, Rays
84. Frank Catalanotto, Rangers
85. Joey Gathright, Royals
86. Eric Hinske, Rays
87. Jody Gerut, Padres
88. Gary Matthews, Angels
NOTE: Benched in favor of Rivera.
89. Jayson Werth, Phillies
90. Andruw Jones, Dodgers
NOTE: Well, they keep playing him.
91. Endy Chavez, Mets
92. Reed Johnson, Cubs
93. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
94. John Bowker, Giants
95. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
96. Brandon Boggs, Rangers
97. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
98. Brad Wilkerson, Blue Jays
99. Austin Kearns, Nationals
100. *Rocco Baldelli, Rays
101. *Elijah Dukes, Nationals
102. *Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks
103. *Ryan Church, Mets

Catcher
1. Russell Martin, Dodgers
NOTE: Give him a break, Joe.
2. Brian McCann, Braves
3. Jorge Posada, Yankees
4. Joe Mauer, Twins
5. Geovany Soto, Cubs
6. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
7. Bengie Molina, Giants
8. Dioner Navarro, Rays
9. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
10. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
11. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers
12. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
13. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
14. *Victor Martinez, Indians
15. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
NOTE: Tricky offseason coming for him and club.
16. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
17. Jesus Flores, Nationals
18. Jeff Clement, Mariners
19. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
20. Jarrod Saltamacchia, Rangers
21. Rod Barajas, Blue Jays
22. Jeff Mathis, Angels
23. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
24. Paul Bako, Reds
25. Miguel Olivo, Royals
26. John Buck, Royals
27. Kenji Johjima, Mariners
28. *Gerald Laird, Rangers
29. *Mike Napoli, Angels
30. *Brandon Inge, Tigers
31. Jason Kendall, Brewers

All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).

* = check status

Last Update: 7/15
Next Update: 7/22

Starting pitchers
1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Tim Lincecum, Giants
NOTE: Skater-boy mechanics work for him.
3. Jake Peavy, Padres
4. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
5. Cole Hamels, Phillies
6. CC Sabathia, Brewers
7. Scott Kazmir, Rays
8. Edinson Volquez, Reds
NOTE: One of the toughest calls on board.
9. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
10. John Lackey, Angels
11. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
12. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
13. Justin Verlander, Tigers
14. James Shields, Rays
15. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
NOTE: Trust your stuff, big guy.
16. Cliff Lee, Indians
17. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
18. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
19. Tim Hudson, Braves
20. Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
21. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
22. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
23. Ben Sheets, Brewers
24. Ted Lilly, Cubs
25. Matt Cain, Giants
NOTE: Learning to crawl.
26. *Felix Hernandez, Mariners
27. Rich Harden, Cubs
28. Ervin Santana, Angels
29. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
30. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
31. John Danks, White Sox
32. Jered Weaver, Angels
33. *Francisco Liriano, Twins
NOTE: Dominating in Triple-A, callup looks imminent.
34. *Roy Oswalt, Astros
35. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
36. Joe Saunders, Angels
37. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
38. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
39. Matt Garza, Rays
40. Jon Lester, Red Sox
41. *Erik Bedard, Mariners
42. John Maine, Mets
43. Manny Parra, Brewers
NOTE: He's putting it together.
44. Kevin Slowey, Twins
45. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
46. Gil Meche, Royals
47. *Chris Young, Padres
48. Zack Greinke, Royals
49. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
50. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
NOTE: Underrated fastball, plus two other pitches.
51. Scott Baker, Twins
52. *Aaron Harang, Reds
53. *Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
54. Mike Mussina, Yankees
55. *Fausto Carmona, Indians
56. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
57. Aaron Cook, Rockies
58. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
59. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
60. Dana Eveland, Athletics
61. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
62. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
63. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
64. *Pedro Martinez, Mets
65. *Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
66. Randy Wolf, Padres
67. Vicente Padilla, Rangers
68. Paul Maholm, Pirates
69. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
70. Scott Olsen, Marlins
NOTE: A strikeout spike would be nice.
71. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
72. Josh Johnson, Marlins
73. David Bush, Brewers
74. Armando Galarraga, Tigers
75. Jo-Jo Reyes, Braves
76. Jamie Moyer, Phillies
77. *Micah Owings, Diamondbacks
78. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
79. Jose Contreras, White Sox
80. Nick Blackburn, Twins
81. Jorge Campillo, Braves
82. Jon Garland, Angels
83. Jesse Litsch, Blue Jays
NOTE: Can't find a way around contact.
84. *Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
85. Aaron Laffey, Indians
86. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
87. Darrell Rasner, Yankees
88. Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
89. Mike Pelfrey, Mets
90. Greg Maddux, Padres
91. Johnny Cueto, Reds
92. Brian Bannister, Royals
93. *Brad Penny, Dodgers
94. *David Price, Rays
NOTE: Highly-touted kid looks ready for audition.
95. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
96. Tim Redding, Senators
97. *Phil Hughes, Yankees
98. Andrew Miller, Marlins
99. Greg Smith, Athletics
100. Justin Masterson, Red Sox
101. Edwin Jackson, Rays
102. Ian Snell, Pirates
NOTE: Just write him off at this point.
103. Joe Blanton, Athletics
104. Kenny Rogers, Tigers
105. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
NOTE: Not consistent enough to trust.
106. Luke Hochevar, Royals
107. Kevin Correia, Giants
108. Garrett Olson, Orioles
109. *Jeff Francis, Rockies
110. John Lannan, Nationals
111. Shawn Hill, Senators
112. Jason Bergmann, Senators
113. Homer Bailey, Reds
114. Jason Marquis, Cubs
115. *Rich Hill, Cubs
116. *Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
117. Eric Stultz, Dodgers
118. Odalis Perez, Senators
119. Oliver Perez, Mets
120. Livan Hernandez, Twins
121. Braden Looper, Cardinals
122. Nate Robertson, Tigers
123. Paul Byrd, Indians
124. *Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates
125. *Bartolo Colon, Red Sox
126. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
127. Miguel Batista, Mariners
128. Barry Zito, Giants
129. *Jeff Suppan, Brewers

Relief pitchers
1. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
NOTE: It's more the team than him, this time.
2. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
3. Joe Nathan, Twins
4. Billy Wagner, Mets
5. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
6. Kerry Wood, Cubs
7. Brad Lidge, Phillies
8. Joakim Soria, Royals
9. Francisco Cordero, Reds
10. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
11. *Bobby Jenks, White Sox
NOTE: Expected to return shortly.
12. Jose Valverde, Astros
13. Brian Wilson, Giants
14. George Sherrill, Orioles
15. Huston Street, Athletics
16. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
17. *Takashi Saito, Dodgers
NOTE: Check the elbow, and this week's MRI.
18. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
19. Todd Jones, Tigers
20. *Troy Percival, Rays
21. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
22. Jon Rauch, Senators
23. *J.J. Putz, Mariners
24. Salomon Torres, Brewers
25. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
26. Mike Gonzalez, Braves
27. Ryan Franklin, Cardinals
28. Damaso Marte, Pirates
29. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
30. Masa Kobayashi, Indians
NOTE: By default, he's the guy here.
31. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
NOTE: See Takashi Saito.
32. *Brandon Morrow, Mariners
33. *Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
34. Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers
35. Joel Zumaya, Tigers
36. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
NOTE: Might get another shot if Fuentes is moved.
37. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
38. Taylor Buchholz, Rockies
39. Heath Bell, Padres
40. Scott Linebrink, White Sox
41. Grant Balfour, Rays
42. Scot Shields, Angels
43. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
44. *Eric Gagne, Brewers
45. Dan Wheeler, Rays
46. *Rafael Soriano, Braves
47. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
48. Chris Perez, Cardinals
49. Chan Ho Park, Dodgers
50. Blaine Boyer, Braves
51. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
52. Santiago Casilla, Athletics
NOTE: A Street deal is always possible.
53. J.P. Howell, Rays
54. Scott Downs, Blue Jays
55. John Grabow, Pirates
56. Doug Brocail, Astros
57. Renyel Pinto, Marlins
58. Joaquin Benoit, Rangers
59. Keith Foulke, Athletics
60. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
61. Eddie Guardado, Rangers
62. Alex Hinshaw, Giants
63. Manny Acosta, Braves
64. Tom Gordon, Phillies
65. Arthur Rhodes, Mariners
66. Bob Howry, Cubs
67. Edwar Ramirez, Yankees
68. Rafael Betancourt, Indians

After unveiling our 2008 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet and profiling the impact players of 2008, let's continue surveying the fantasy landscape for you early birds by looking at coaching changes of fantasy note.

Coaching has a greater influence on performance in football than in any other sport, by a mile. It's not just who plays and in what situations, but the systems employed by offensive coordinators and the skill positions those systems emphasize via play-calling strategies.

In Washington, the coaching staff left town, replaced by Jim Zorn, a proponent of the West Coast offense as the former QB coach under Mike Holmgren. Sherman Smith, a former Titans RB coach, will call the plays. But Holmgren's variation of the attack is less dink-and-dunk and more downfield in nature -- Matt Hasselbeck is always among the league leaders in attempts traveling more than 10 yards from scrimmage in the air. Downfield passing is a strength of QB Jesse Campbell. The team put a lot of effort into upgrading a wide receiver corps that wasn't bad. They made a major play for Chad Johnson before drafting Devin Thomas and Malcom Kelly with the 34th and 51st picks, respectively. That's a tell regarding their desire to implement a more explosive, downfield attack. Zorn/Holmgren called lots of running plays in close, generating easy TDs for Shaun Alexander. But this is not a strength for either Clinton Portis or Ladell Betts.

Baltimore's new offensive coordinator Cam Cameron will look to emphasize the run, as he did successfully in San Diego and with futility in Miami. This bodes well for Willis McGahee. Joe Flacco projections are pure guesswork. While he has size and a big arm, he isn't athletic and played in a weak conference that didn't even have NCAA-caliber speed on defense. If he doesn't work out quickly, it's back to Kyle Boller.

New Niners offensive coordinator Mike Martz offers hope. But Alex Smith, coming off major surgery on his throwing shoulder, seems like an empty vessel. Shaun Hill raised some eyebrows, but his sample size is miniscule. Martz brought J.T. O'Sullivan over with him from Detroit, indicating his feelings for his backup QB of last year. Remember that Martz has made a career of turning other people's castoffs into fantasy value and sometimes even fantasy gold. More certain returns will come from RB Frank Gore, whom Martz wants to turn into a poor-man's Marshall Faulk. Martz likes to run the ball in close, especially out of multi-WR formations so that there is less of a scrum.

The party's over in Detroit. No more Martz means less downfield passing and less passing overall. Note that new offensive coordinator Jim Colletto is the team's former offensive line coach and that the team drafted a run blocking right tackle (Gosder Cherilus) and then traded up to take a running back (Kevin Smith) in the third round. Old-school football is back in Detroit, so take those 2007 passing stats and toss them into the circular file.

Al Saunders returns to St. Louis, minus Martz, with whom he served as receivers' coach during the glory days of the Greatest Show on Turf under Dick Vermeil. Saunders is from the Joe Gibbs/Don Coryell coaching tree that emphasizes pass protection above all things. Thus the Rams are likely to be much different than in recent years, keeping in as many men to block as are necessary. Marc Bulger thus has a better chance to stay healthy. Saunders, though, has been a run-oriented play caller since leaving the Rams -- first with the Chiefs and then with the Redskins. And he has a premium talent to work with in St. Louis in Steven Jackson. So expect the Rams to be more conservative than average on first downs, where they've historically had a significant pass bias.

I didn't like Norm Chow as Vince Young's offensive coordinator in Tennessee even when things were going well, because Chow didn't believe in having Young work out of that Texas shotgun on first and second down. Mike Heimerdinger is back with the Titans after stops in New York (Jets) and Denver. He'll try to recapture the dynamic passing game he had under a similarly mobile QB in Steve McNair. If you see shotgun looks on first and second downs this preseason, try to beat the market in landing Young. But until then, he's strictly a backup with upside. Heimerdinger eschewed RB committees in his Titans past, but that was when he was running with Eddie George. He favored them in Denver.

In Atlanta, new offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey did emphasize downfield, explosive passing in his heyday as Steelers offensive coordinator in the early part of the decade. And WR Roddy White is an emerging playmaker. So things aren't as hopeless there as they seem. The key is whether rookie QB Matt Ryan has the instinctiveness and moxie that can only be measured once we see it (or don't). Either way, look for Michael Turner, a prototypical Steelers-style power back, to be the focal point of whatever attack the team can muster.

Kansas City has hired Chan Gailey, out of the NFL since 2001. Gailey's Dolphins offenses then were very run-heavy even though they had the non-descript Lamar Smith at tailback. Larry Johnson should benefit from him the most, assuming he can stay healthy.

Miami's new offensive coordinator Dan Henning orchestrated some big-time passing attacks for both the Jets and Panthers. And head coach Tony Sparano had a big hand in the Cowboys' offensive success, which was predicated on an explosive passing game. But Miami's options at the position appear nondescript. Rookie Chad Henne is going to be given a chance to start in order to speed up his development in what's likely to be a wasted year. He's the proverbial "Box of Chocolates" long term; but should be expected to be a drag on the attack in 2008. Hanning and Sparano both have favored RB committees; so don't expect a true feature role from Ronnie Brown, coming off ACL surgery.

We've seen some big deals go down in the majors the last week or so (so long, CC; drop a line sometime, Rich), but in the fantasy world, franchise players come and go on a daily basis. Here's a look inside our current scouting notebook, focusing on the Junior Circuit.

Pitchers

BUY

Francisco Liriano, SP, Twins: His return can't be too far away - he's working on 20 straight scoreless innings in Triple-A, with 24 strikeouts. There's no reason why he can't be one of the AL's 10 best starters in the second half of the year, especially with CC Sabathia and Rich Harden out of the picture. If someone flaked on Liriano in your league, run to the waiver wire right now.

Sean Gallagher, SP, Athletics: The 22-year-old righty had some good days and some bad days with the Cubs, but don't look past his legit stuff (49 strikeouts in 58.2 innings). A bigger park, less pressure and a league that hasn't seen him yet, sounds like a good deal to us. Get that FAAB wallet ready for a bid.

SELL

R.A. Dickey, SP, Mariners: He's on a good run over his last four starts (26.1 innings, four runs), and knuckleballers are always fun to have around in theory, but can Dickey continue to get this lucky on balls in play? He's carrying 15 strikeouts against 12 walks over this span, which has to make you a little nervous. And when the knuckleball occasionally doesn't knuckle, balls fly over distant fences. Get out while the getting's good.

HOLD

A.J. Burnett, SP, Blue Jays: Toronto figures to shift into a seller mode soon - the Jays lost Vernon Wells and Dustin McGowan this week - and Burnett is a power righty who could ring up ridiculous strikeout totals if he's shipped back to the NL. Mind you there's plenty of assumed risk that comes with Burnett and his physical history, but if you're not afraid to swing for the fences, there's a major upside here - especially if Burnett is moved far away from the rough-and-tumble AL East.

Batters

BUY

Juan Rivera, OF, Angels: He's back and swinging a mean bat (four hits and a homer in Arlington), while Gary Matthews and his bloated contract are relegated to the bench. Give Mike Scioscia credit for tinkering with a first-place lineup, and give Rivera a look if you're looking for some pop from the back of your outfield. He was a $15-20 stick just a couple of years back.

SELL

Edgar Renteria, SS, Tigers: He's no longer a factor on the bases (three steals), he's slugging under .300 since May 1, and he's hitting all of .254. Can you say "declining bat speed?" Better yet, can you say "do you need a shortstop?" to one of your unwitting opponents. Being in the AL doesn't automatically help everyone - keep in mind Renteria struggled for most of his one season in Boston. Now, he's clearly in the decline years, coming up on his 33rd birthday.

HOLD

Jeff Mathis, C, Angels: He's not going to help your average much and no one behind the backstop in Anaheim seems capable of throwing anyone out, but Mathis can offer a couple of things to you: power (he's gone deep six times in 147 at-bats) and playing time (he's needed on a nightly basis now that Mike Napoli has hit the DL).

Change is constant in the fantasy game, and we don't deal in brand names here, we deal with numbers. Here's a peek at a few portfolios you should be familiar with.

Hitters

BUY

Adam LaRoche, 1B, Pirates: He's the poster child for hitting when the weather heats up; his spring numbers are so ugly for his career, we don't want to print them on a family-friendly website. The worm has turned over the last 25 games, however (.359/.430/.616), and LaRoche has a career .893 OPS for the second half. Get in on this now.

SELL

Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks: He was great in April, mediocre in May and a total washout in June (.123 average, 25 strikeouts) as the book quickly circulated on the 20-year-old. He's not the first rookie to hit the wall quickly, but perhaps more minor-league seasoning is in order. Upton is also dealing with a sore rib cage at the moment, and the club can't rule out a DL trip.

Michael Bourn, OF, Astros: Cecil Cooper has turned him into a part-timer these days, and you can't blame the skipper -- Bourn has a skimpy .221/.276/.295 line tied to him right now. Bourn's 32 steals certainly have fantasy utility, but he's a dead spot in three categories, and even when he made it into Wednesday's lineup, he was buried in the No. 7 position. Wait until Bourn steals another base or two, then see if you can slide him to a bag-hungry opponent.

HOLD

Jeff Francouer, OF, Braves: He's back up with the big club after a short but productive time in the bush leagues. He's still a stellar fielder in right field and he's looked OK in his first two games at the plate (2 for 8, one homer). I wish we had a clearer sign that it's going to be better, but based on his career path, how can you not take a swing at the upside present?

Pitchers

BUY

Damaso Marte, RP, Pirates: A repeat stock from last week, but the saves chance is one of the most important things we do in this game. The Bucs haven't given Marte the full-on endorsement yet, but don't be tripped up -- he's got two saves this week and there's not much else behind him in John Russell's bullpen. If you've been taking a wait-see on the Matt Capps replacement, it's time to make a move -- go get Marte, even in mixed groups. The left-handed bias shouldn't work against him one bit, because he's been getting right-handers out all year (.202 batting-average against).

SELL

Aaron Harang, SP, Reds: His ailing forearm has him on the shelf for the moment, and the enigmatic Homer Bailey will get his spot Saturday. It's been a tricky run of starts for the Cincinnati rotation: Johnny Cueto has been hit or miss; Bronson Arroyo is a crafty righty at best who can't miss enough bats when he falls behind in the count; Edinson Volquez has shown plenty of dominant turns, but he's hit some speed bumps of late and still walks too many guys. Throw in a hitter-friendly park and a mercurial manager and this is one staff I'm fine to steer clear on, now that the price is bloated on Volquez's breakout.

HOLD

Jason Isringhausen, RP, Cardinals: How desperate did you say you were for saves? Ryan Franklin has found a way to eke out 12 saves in 14 opportunities, but he's clearly not a long-term solution here, and the Cards like the way Izzy has thrown the ball the last couple of weeks.

Chan Ho Park, SP/RP, Dodgers: He's got 23 strikeouts over his last three starts, and his relief work hasn't been that shabby either. Give the Dodgers credit for some thrifty work at the yard sale. Park won't get used enough to have mixed-league utility right now, but he should be deployed in any NL-only format at the moment.

We've already seen two big interleague trades, with one team -- the Indians -- receiving one of the game's better prospects plus, and the other -- the A's -- getting a bunch of B-level guys.

That's the difference between trading the defending Cy Young Award winner pitching at the top of his game of late and dealing a precocious but always disabled hurler (Rich Harden) who half the league suspects has a shoulder hanging together by a thread.

The Indians' primary CC Sabathia haul, OF/1B/DH Matt LaPorta, rose up the preseason prospect rankings into the top 10 overall in many places, courtesy of his hot professional debut at Double-A Huntsville (20 homers, .987 OPS).

Let's look at other top prospects not yet in the majors to better understand whom teams long for as the major-league trading deadline approaches (July 31).

There's some debate whether Orioles C Matt Wieters or Rays lefty David Price is No. 1. The Pirates are reportedly asking for Price in return for OF Jason Bay, which the Rays rightfully refuse to consider.

Price, the 2007 overall No. 1 pick, wowed Alex Rodriguez this spring when both were rehabbing, then equally impressed no less a pitching authority than Pedro Martinez while the Mets hurler was rounding into shape in Single A. Price was recently promoted to Double-A Montgomery and should be in the Rays rotation come August, and maybe even sooner, if Scott Kazmir's recent slide is injury related.

The 6-6, 225-pound Price has a 1.68 E.R.A. in the minors and hasn't allowed a homer in 53.7 innings. He's a ground-ball specialist who throws 97 mph with three other major-league-caliber pitches. Good luck with that, hitters.

Wieters is a super-sized Johnny Bench, throwing out 40 percent of baserunners and mashing the ball consistently from both sides of the plate. He received the most money ever for an amateur talent after the Orioles took him No. 5 overall last year. The 6-5, 230-pounder is now in Double-A Bowie, where he's hitting .342 with a 1.023 OPS after hitting .345 with a 1.024 OPS in Single A. He's mashed 17 homers and struck out 53 times with 51 walks in 267 at-bats. He's ready for the majors right now, but the Orioles probably will wait until March.

There's a considerable drop after these two, at least in the eyes of most scouts.

Cardinals CF Colby Rasmus has been unable to sustain any success in Triple A, hitting .249 with a .752 OPS. Blue Jays DH Travis Snider, just 20, is striking out 30 percent of the time in Double A but is showing power considering his age. Scouts I've sampled believe Pirates CF Lawrence McCutcheon is overrated, as he swings from his heels too much without the power to show for it. Marlins CF Cameron Maybin is another young hitter struggling to make contact -- 28 percent K-rate in Double-A with an .818 OPS, impressive enough for a 21 year old.

While most think the second-best pitching prospect in baseball that we haven't yet seen in the majors is Tigers righty Rick Porcello, I think it's actually Giants lefty Madison Bumgarner -- 8-2 with a 1.77 E.R.A. and 91 Ks with 15 BBs in 81 innings for Low-A Augusta. Bumgarner is still 18.

Let's make some recommendations, for 2008 only, on rookies and other prospects who have already sampled the big leagues.

Buy

Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays: Arizona Fall League scouts were split on his holier-than-thou attitude. But if you were this good, you'd be cocky, too. He's Ryan Braun with a Gold Glove.

Hold

Clay Buchholz, P, Red Sox: His dominance was way down in Triple A (8.9 K/9 vs. 12.8 there last year). And his walks were up. We can no longer say he's a sure-fire ace. But he's back in the BoSox rotation.

Jay Bruce, OF, Reds: He's been exactly a league-average hitter so far (.782 OPS), impressive for a 21-year-old. The 22.6-percent line-drive rate and homers on 17.6 percent of flyballs are well above average. The K-rate (29 percent) is troubling.

Sell

Clayton Kershaw, P, Dodgers: He was spunky about getting sent down, which is good. But the Dodgers want the 20-year-old lefty to work on his control (5.6 walks per nine innings).

Alex Gordon, 3B, Royals: His walk and K rates are progressing, but Gordon flashes below-average power (8.7 percent of fly balls clear the wall), not good when you are extreme at hitting the ball in the air.

Andrew Miller, P, Marlins: Maddenly inconsistent, this lefty has strung together two quality starts in a row only twice and never made it to three. Miller continues to seem unlucky in stranding baserunners (63 percent, average is 70 percent). His velocity decline is raising red flags: 91.2 mph fastball on average now, 94.3 mph in 2006.

All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBIs, stolen bases).

* = check status

Last Update: 7/8
Next Update: 7/15

First Base/DH

1. Lance Berkman, Astros
2. Mark Teixeira, Braves
3. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
4. Prince Fielder, Brewers
5. Ryan Howard, Phillies
6. *Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
NOTE: Hasn't looked right all season.
7. *Albert Pujols, Cardinals
8. Derrek Lee, Cubs
9. Justin Morneau, Twins
10. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
11. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
12. *David Ortiz, Red Sox
13. Jason Giambi, Yankees
NOTE: Can't deny the moustache man.
14. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
15. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
16. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
NOTE: Here comes the mid-season rally.
17. Carlos Pena, Rays
18. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
19. James Loney, Dodgers
20. Joey Votto, Reds
21. Carlos Delgado, Mets
22. Casey Kotchman, Angels
23. Ryan Garko, Indians
24. *Paul Konerko, White Sox
25. *Travis Hafner, Indians
26. Jim Thome, White Sox
27. Gary Sheffield, Tigers
28. Kevin Millar, Orioles
29. *Todd Helton, Rockies

Second Base

1. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
NOTE: Don't scoff, the numbers back it up.
2. Chase Utley, Phillies
3. Brian Roberts, Orioles
4. Brandon Phillips, Reds
5. Dan Uggla, Marlins
6. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
7. Robinson Cano, Yankees
8. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
9. Placido Polanco, Tigers
10. Alexei Casilla, Twins
11. Kelly Johnson, Braves
12. Howie Kendrick, Angels
13. Mark Ellis, Athletics
NOTE: Sneaky contributor across the board.
14. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
15. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
16. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
17. *Kaz Matsui, Astros
18. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
19. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
20. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
21. Jose Lopez, Mariners
22. *Luis Castillo, Mets
23. *Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
24. Clint Barmes, Rockies
25. Felipe Lopez, Nationals
26. Jeff Baker, Rockies
NOTE: Needed regularly with Barmes sliding over.
27. Mark Grudzielanek, Royals
28. Jamie Carroll, Indians
29. Brendan Harris, Twins
30. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals

Shortstop

1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
2. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
3. Jose Reyes, Mets
4. Michael Young, Rangers
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Miguel Tejada, Astros
7. Yunel Escobar, Braves
8. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
9. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
NOTE: Thriving in the No. slot.
10. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
11. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
12. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
13. Jerry Hairston, Reds
NOTE: Healthy again and batting leadoff.
14. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
15. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
16. Julio Lugo, Red Sox
17. *Bobby Crosby, Athletics
18. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
19. *Jason Bartlett, Rays
20. Khalil Greene, Padres
21. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
22. *Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
23. Erick Aybar, Angels
24. Alfredo Amezaga, Marlins
25. Jack Wilson, Pirates
26. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
27. Omar Vizquel, Giants
28. *Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
29. David Eckstein, Blue Jays

Third Base

1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Ryan Braun, Brewers
4. *Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
5. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
6. Mike Lowell, Red Sox
7. Evan Longoria, Rays
NOTE: This year's Ryan Braun.
8. *Chipper Jones, Braves
9. *Chone Figgins, Angels
10. Alex Gordon, Royals
11. Joe Crede, White Sox
12. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
13. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
14. *Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
15. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
16. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Lots of whiffs, but power is legit.
17. Ty Wigginton, Astros
18. Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
19. Blake DeWitt, Dodgers
20. Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
21. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
22. Melvin Mora, Orioles
23. Jose Castillo, Giants
24. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
25. *Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
26. *Hank Blalock, Rangers
27. *Eric Chavez, Athletics

Outfield

1. Grady Sizemore, Indians
NOTE: Forget the average; a four-category dominator.
2. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
3. Carl Crawford, Rays
4. Matt Holliday, Rockies
5. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
6. Carlos Lee, Astros
7. Nick Markakis, Orioles
NOTE: Sweet swing came back in June.
8. B.J. Upton, Rays
9. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
10. *Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
11. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
12. Carlos Beltran, Mets
13. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
14. Curtis Granderson, Tigers
NOTE: Picking it up against lefties.
15. Adam Dunn, Reds
16. Milton Bradley, Rangers
17. Torii Hunter, Angels
18. Corey Hart, Brewers
19. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
20. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
21. Hunter Pence, Astros
22. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
23. Jason Bay, Pirates
24. Jay Bruce, Reds
25. Nate McLouth, Pirates
26. Jose Guillen, Royals
27. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
NOTE: Something is always missing here.
28. *Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
29. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
30. Carlos Gomez, Twins
31. Shane Victorino, Phillies
32. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
33. Pat Burrell, Phillies
34. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
35. *Johnny Damon, Yankees
36. Randy Winn, Giants
37. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
38. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
39. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
40. Nick Swisher, White Sox
41. *Juan Pierre, Dodgers
42. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
NOTE: Outfield gridlock hurts the cause.
43. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
44. J.D. Drew, Red Sox
45. Aaron Rowand, Giants
46. Josh Willingham, Marlins
47. Xavier Nady, Pirates
48. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
49. *Hideki Matsui, Yankees
50. Luke Scott, Orioles
51. David DeJesus, Royals
52. Ken Griffey, Reds
53. Adam Jones, Orioles
54. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
55. David Murphy, Rangers
56. Chase Headley, Padres
57. Mike Cameron, Brewers
58. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
59. Skip Schumaker, Cardinals
60. Michael Bourn, Astros
NOTE: Losing time to Darin Erstad.
61. Melky Cabrera, Yankees
62. *Willy Taveras, Rockies
NOTE: Nicked-up, may not be full-timer.
63. Jack Cust, Athletics
64. Mark Teahen, Royals
65. *Michael Cuddyer, Twins
66. *Lastings Milledge, Nationals
67. Gary Matthews, Angels
68. Ben Francisco, Indians
69. Brian Giles, Padres
70. Garret Anderson, Angels
71. Jim Edmonds, Cubs
72. Jason Kubel, Twins
73. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
74. Delmon Young, Twins
75. Joey Gathright, Royals
76. Eric Hinske, Rays
77. Brian Giles, Padres
78. *Elijah Dukes, Nationals
NOTE: Injury ruins his tremendous breakout.
79. Bill Hall, Brewers
80. Fred Lewis, Giants
81. Gregor Blanco, Braves
82. Cody Ross, Marlins
83. Jody Gerut, Padres
84. Chris Duncan, Cardinals
85. Jonny Gomes, Rays
86. Frank Catalanotto, Rangers
87. *Jeff Francoeur, Braves
88. *Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks
89. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
90. *Rocco Baldelli, Rays
91. Jayson Werth, Phillies
92. Endy Chavez, Mets
93. John Bowker, Giants
94. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
95. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
96. Brad Wilkerson, Blue Jays
97. *Reed Johnson, Cubs
98. Austin Kearns, Nationals
99. *Ryan Church, Mets
100. Andruw Jones, Dodgers
101. Brandon Boggs, Rangers

Catcher

1. Russell Martin, Dodgers
2. Brian McCann, Braves
3. Jorge Posada, Yankees
4. Joe Mauer, Twins
5. Geovany Soto, Cubs
6. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
NOTE: Big-league hacker worth price of admission.
7. Bengie Molina, Giants
8. Dioner Navarro, Rays
9. *Yadier Molina, Cardinals
10. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
11. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
12. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers
13. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
NOTE: Reputation got him to ASG.
14. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
15. *Victor Martinez, Indians
16. Jeff Clement, Mariners
17. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
18. Jesus Flores, Nationals
19. Jarrod Saltamacchia, Rangers
NOTE: Spotty glove costs him time.
20. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
21. Rod Barajas, Blue Jays
22. Jeff Mathis, Angels
23. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
24. Paul Bako, Reds
25. Kenji Johjima, Mariners
26. Miguel Olivo, Royals
27. *Gerald Laird, Rangers
28. John Buck, Royals
29. *Mike Napoli, Angels
30.Jason Kendall, Brewers
31. *Brandon Inge, Tigers

All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).

* = check status

Last Update: 7/8
Next Update: 7/15

Starting Pitchers

1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Tim Lincecum, Giants
NOTE: Right now, he's the best in the league.
3. Jake Peavy, Padres
4. Cole Hamels, Phillies
5. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
6. Scott Kazmir, Rays
7. Edinson Volquez, Reds
8. CC Sabathia, Brewers
NOTE: He dropped the periods; how about dropping some pounds?
9. John Lackey, Angels
10. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
11. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
12. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
13. James Shields, Rays
14. Justin Verlander, Tigers
15. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
16. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
17. Cliff Lee, Indians
18. Tim Hudson, Braves
19. Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
20. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
21. Ted Lilly, Cubs
22. Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays
NOTE: Results don't measure up to stuff.
23. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
24. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
25. Ben Sheets, Brewers
26. Matt Cain, Giants
27. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
28. *Felix Hernandez, Mariners
29. Ervin Santana, Angels
30. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
31. Jered Weaver, Angels
32. John Danks, White Sox
33. *Roy Oswalt, Astros
34. Rich Harden, Athletics
35. Matt Garza, Rays
36. *Erik Bedard, Mariners
NOTE: He'll be an asterisk player all season.
37. Joe Saunders, Angels
38. *Francisco Liriano, Twins
39. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
40. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
41. Jon Lester, Red Sox
42. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
43. Aaron Harang, Reds
44. Pedro Martinez, Mets
45. John Maine, Mets
46. Kevin Slowey, Twins
47. *Chris Young, Padres
48. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
49. Gil Meche, Royals
50. *Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
NOTE: Might not be back until August.
51. Manny Parra, Brewers
52. Zack Greinke, Royals
53. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
54. Scott Baker, Twins
55. Mike Mussina, Yankees
56. *Fausto Carmona, Indians
57. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
58. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
59. Randy Wolf, Padres
60. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
61. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
62. Dana Eveland, Athletics
63. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
64. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
65. *Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
66. *Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
67. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
68. Aaron Cook, Rockies
69. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
70. Vicente Padilla, Rangers
71. Scott Olsen, Marlins
72. Paul Maholm, Pirates
73. Jo-Jo Reyes, Braves
74. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
NOTE: Has the butterfly dancing this summer.
75. Jose Contreras, White Sox
76. Armando Galarraga, Tigers
NOTE: Useful back-ender, but beware third time around league.
77. Andrew Miller, Marlins
78. Aaron Laffey, Indians
79. Greg Smith, Athletics
80. *Micah Owings, Diamondbacks
81. Jamie Moyer, Phillies
82. Jorge Campillo, Braves
83. Nick Blackburn, Twins
84. Jon Garland, Angels
85. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
NOTE: Better command last month.
86. Darrell Rasner, Yankees
87. Jesse Litsch, Blue Jays
88. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
89. Justin Masterson, Red Sox
90. Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
91. Greg Maddux, Padres
92. Johnny Cueto, Reds
93. *Josh Johnson, Marlins
NOTE: Might be able to help down the stretch.
94. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
95. David Bush, Brewers
NOTE: He's rallying, but our memories are long.
96. Tim Redding, Senators
97. *Phil Hughes, Yankees
98. Brian Bannister, Royals
99. *Brad Penny, Dodgers
100. Edwin Jackson, Rays
101. Joe Blanton, Athletics
102. Kenny Rogers, Tigers
103. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
104. Luke Hochevar, Royals
105. Kevin Correia, Giants
106. Garrett Olson, Orioles
107. *Jeff Francis, Rockies
108. Mike Pelfrey, Mets
109. John Lannan, Nationals
110. Shawn Hill, Senators
111. Jason Bergmann, Senators
112. Jason Marquis, Cubs
113. *Rich Hill, Cubs
114. *Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
115. Eric Stultz, Dodgers
NOTE: Loved him in "Pulp Fiction."
116. *Ian Snell, Pirates
117. Odalis Perez, Senators
118. Oliver Perez, Mets
119. Livan Hernandez, Twins
120. Braden Looper, Cardinals
121. *Homer Bailey, Reds
NOTE: This is why you don't overrate prospects.
122. Nate Robertson, Tigers
123. *Jeff Suppan, Brewers
124. Paul Byrd, Indians
125. *Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates
126. *Bartolo Colon, Red Sox
127. Miguel Batista, Mariners
128. Barry Zito, Giants
126. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners

Relief Pitchers

1. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
2. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
3. Joe Nathan, Twins
4. Billy Wagner, Mets
5. Takashi Saito, Dodgers
6. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
7. Kerry Wood, Cubs
8. Brad Lidge, Phillies
NOTE: Dominant three months earns extension.
9. *Bobby Jenks, White Sox
NOTE: Beware the sore back.
10. Joakim Soria, Royals
11. Francisco Cordero, Reds
12. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
13. Jose Valverde, Astros
14. Brian Wilson, Giants
15. George Sherrill, Orioles
16. Huston Street, Athletics
17. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
18. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
19. *Troy Percival, Rays
20. Todd Jones, Tigers
21. Jon Rauch, Senators
22. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
23. *J.J. Putz, Mariners
24. Salomon Torres, Brewers
25. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
26. Ryan Franklin, Cardinals
27. Mike Gonzalez, Braves
28. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
29. Damaso Marte, Pirates
NOTE: Steps in for injured Capps.
30. Masa Kobayashi, Indians
NOTE: Has a fair shot at leading post-Borowski committee.
31. Taylor Buchholz, Rockies
32. *Brandon Morrow, Mariners
33. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
34. Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers
35. Joel Zumaya, Tigers
36. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
37. Dan Wheeler, Rays
38. Heath Bell, Padres
39. Scott Linebrink, White Sox
40. Grant Balfour, Rays
NOTE: "Strike three" is more like it.
41. Scot Shields, Angels
42. *Eric Gagne, Brewers
43. *Rafael Soriano, Braves
44. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
45. Chris Perez, Cardinals
46. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
47. Blaine Boyer, Braves
48. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
49. Santiago Casilla, Athletics
50. J.P. Howell, Rays
51. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
52. *Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
53. Chan Ho Park, Dodgers
NOTE: Quietly making a run of it as staff filler.
54. Scott Downs, Blue Jays
55. John Grabow, Pirates
56. Doug Brocail, Astros
57. Renyel Pinto, Marlins
58. Joaquin Benoit, Rangers
59. Keith Foulke, Athletics
60. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
61. *Eddie Guardado, Rangers
62. Rafael Betancourt, Indians
63. Alex Hinshaw, Giants
64. Manny Acosta, Braves
65. Tom Gordon, Phillies
66. Bob Howry, Cubs
67. Edwar Ramirez, Yankees
68. Jesse Carlson, Blue Jays
69. Arthur Rhodes, Mariners
70. *Chad Cordero, Senators
71. *Matt Capps, Pirates
NOTE: Shoulder problem ends his season.

Last week on XM Radio, I was asked to predict which guys this year will be the fantasy football difference makers - players correlating closely with making the playoffs and winning league championships. I've expanded on this topic below.

Players are listed in the order they're currently being drafted in thousands of drafts hosted by MockDraftCentral.com. Their Average Draft Placement (ADP) is courtesy of our friends there and duly noted. We start with pick No. 25 because we don't really choose our first player as much as settle for whoever our fellow owners passed on when it comes time for us to kick off our draft (unless we're lucky enough to draft first, which may not be so lucky this year). The second round is also mostly a matter of slotting, given how draft rounds snake back and forth.

It's guys who are drafted in the third round and later who everyone has a chance to grab. Here are the players I think justify even a little reach relative to these ADPs.

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans (ADP: 25th): Big, fast and with a very underrated QB in Matt Schaub running a Broncos-themed offense (courtesy of head coach and former Denver offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak). Johnson also has the luxury of an overrated but effective backup QB in Sage Rosenfels, just in case more misfortune befalls Schaub. Johnson's bugaboo has always been injury, and his knee was scoped in May. That's not enough to dissuade me from gambling on his prodigious talent (8 TDs in 9 games last year).

Michael Turner, RB, Falcons (ADP: 35th): People love the player but hate the situation. I've been a proponent of this thinking in the past. But I've revised it given how difficult it is to project which teams are going to be awful offensively. Witness the Browns last year. Until the season starts, we just don't know enough about new coaches, systems, offensive lineman and draft/free agency imports. Turner's ADP assumes either that the Falcons are going to have a moribund attack or that Jerious Norwood is going to siphon off considerable carries. Trust that the latter will not happen in their new Pittsburgh, power-running offense. And the former is less likely to be true than the market thinks.

Derek Anderson, QB, Browns (ADP: 50th): His second-half slide should have been expected because he was an inexperienced player at the most demanding position by a mile in all of team sports. Thus, his overall numbers tell the truer story, and that glass is way more than half full. The Browns return all offensive linemen and have maybe the best wide receiver in the sport in Braylon Edwards. So, after taking two RBs and two WRs, I'm sold in Round 5 for sure on his 30-TD upside.

Hines Ward, WR, Steelers (ADP: 56th): Productive last year considering he missed three games with torn PCL and MCL knee ligaments, Ward should be fully recovered after offseason surgery come September. He's only 32, not old for a receiver. Ward showed me enough last year to still assume he's the No. 1 target of Ben Roethlisberger.

Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions (58th): When a team has two talented freak WRs like Detroit, always take the one the market thinks less of (Roy Williams' ADP is 46). Talented tandems come with a pop-up timer. Once the first one is taken, you know it's all clear to grab the one who's left over the next round or two. There's no way anyone can reasonably project any difference in these players. So cheaper becomes better.

Matt Forte, RB, Bears (ADP: 59th): Cedric Benson was waived. Offensive coordinator Ron Turner said of Forte, "He will definitely be an every-down back." Turner added, "[Forte's] got the hands." So, you add the catches and yards there to the goal-line duty (23 TDs for Tulane last year) and you get a first-round back in the fifth or sixth round. Even a fourth-round reach should generate considerable profit.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs (ADP: 61st): Continuing with our theme of talented guys in offenses that have stunk. The consensus is the Chiefs attack will flounder again, given Brodie Croyle's poor debut as a starter last season. But Croyle impressed Chan Gailey in offseason workouts, and QBs sometimes make quantum leaps after early struggles. Croyle doesn't have to be good for Bowe to be a monster, just mediocre. Bowe averaged 8.5 yards per target (times thrown to) last year, more than Larry Fitzgerald and Edwards. His 2007 numbers were great for a rookie. He's cleared for take off.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers (ADP: 78th): Willie Parker is getting drafted way higher and I don't think there's any chance that Parker outperforms Mendenhall. Teams send us messages every April. Parker is out of Pittsburgh's plans. Mendenhall, a No. 1 draft pick, is in. Lots of things can change that: Mendenhall might not be savvy enough to pick up blitzes and Parker might change their minds with a great camp. But it pays to read the writing on the wall.

Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Colts (ADP: 84th overall): I like Marvin Harrison at 63rd, too. The middle rounds of a draft are ultimately about upside. You can't swing for the fences on every pick, but must take some big hacks to win. Marvin Harrison might be chronically injured or return to form this year. I think it's more likely the former, but you're getting a four-round discount on him. Gonzalez is more likely to more greatly out-earn his draft slot, though. And Pick No. 84 is cheap given that's where donators in every league draft kickers and defenses.

Vernon Davis, TE, Niners (ADP: 94th): That's seventh among TEs. Davis has been all hype but could now turn into a solid play even in leagues where a tight end isn't required. Mike Martz knows how to wring all the talent out of a receiver and Davis is dripping with ability. I know the QB situation seems dire, but Martz has made chicken salad out of you know what before at the position.

Ryan Torain, RB, Broncos (ADP: 177th): I might be suffering from confirmation bias, but doesn't some backup Broncos back always generate a tidy profit? Some years, it's even league-changing. If Torain is No. 1 on the depth chart come draft day, pass and take Selvin Young (now being taken 66th on average). If someone aces you, settle for new Bronco Michael Pittman in the last round, because, with Mike Shanahan you never know.