Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By David Ferris

Tomorrow's championship run begins with the foundation we start laying today. Let's give one last look at 2008 and see what we can apply for next year.

Pitchers

BUY

Frank Francisco, RP, Rangers: He got the closing gig in late August when Eddie Guardado was traded, and it was a perfect fit immediately (10 scoreless innings, four walks, 17 strikeouts, five saves). Short-sighted owners skipped Francisco a month ago because of his series of blown saves in middle relief, but working out of a midgame jam is a trickier assignment than pitching the ninth inning with no one on base. Francisco should be one of the cheaper save-grabbers on the market next spring, and that's always an angle we'll be looking to cash in with.

SELL

Francisco Rodriguez, RP, free agent: The key here is not to be overwhelmed by the save total; it's an impressive feat, but it speaks for the constant opportunities the Angels gave Rodriguez, not how well he pitched. K-Rod's had at least two or three better seasons himself, and if you examine all of the AL's closers for 2008 and skip over the save counts, Rodriguez will not grade out on top (Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon and Joakim Soria stand ahead of him). Bottom line, Rodriguez will be handsomely paid by a major-league club this winter and by fantasy owners next spring, but the sharp play is to find saves on a budget, not to write a fat check and pay retail.

Brad Ziegler, RP, Athletics: It's been a fun story and we like him to be a productive member of the Oakland bullpen for years to come, but his sinker and ground-ball dominance are better suited for a non-closing gig going forward. The competition for the ninth inning by the bay figures to be fierce: Huston Street wants his job back, and Joey Devine was utterly dominant (despite injuries) in his Oakland debut.

HOLD

Cliff Lee, SP, Indians: Career years should be taken with a skeptical tack, there's no doubt about that, but Lee's breakthrough season probably was more real than conventional wisdom accepts. A tightened delivery and improved control led to the massive walk drop, and he's starting to get "reputation calls" when he paints the corner. Lee's home-run luck probably won't carry over to 2009 - only 5 percent of his fly balls left the park this year, unsustainable - but that's the only rabbit's foot we see on the resume. The league hit .305 against Lee on balls in play, essentially the league average. If the rest of the room refuses to buy in for Lee's encore season, go ahead and pay for 16 wins, 175 strikeouts and an ERA in the mid-3s. It's going to come cheaper than you might expect.

Batters

BUY

Hank Blalock, 3B, Rangers: Don't write him off as just another injury-plagued third sacker; you'll miss the snappy way Blalock finished 2008 (.327, seven homers over the last month). Arlington is an ideal hitting environment for a left-handed power hitter, and Blalock also offers first-base eligibility into the new season (he split his time between the two spots this summer).

SELL

Edgar Renteria, SS, Tigers: At quick glance there appears to be value here: a .270 average, 10 homers and 54 RBIs is respectable at the position. But things get ugly if you look a level deeper: a .238 average against right-handed pitching; a 162-point drop in OPS; a puny .380 slugging percentage; five fewer steals from the previous year. Renteria turns 34 next summer, but his bat speed is aging at a quicker rate. There's major collapse risk with this stock.

HOLD

Mike Aviles, SS, Royals: He hit lefties and righties, he raked at home and on the road, and he produced very consistent numbers every month following his June promotion. Aviles was also sharp in the field, further solidifying his hold on the position. The mediocre fantasy owner will want to discount Aviles strictly because of unfamiliarity, but this surprising breakout holds up when you look under the hood.

Curtis Granderson, OF, Tigers: Some injuries and less aggressiveness on the bases masked what was arguably a growth season; don't overlook the significant progress Granderson made against left-handed pitching (where he jumped 104 points). He'll go back to making us very content in all five categories again next spring, and probably at a modest discount. We haven't seen Granderson's best haul yet.

By Chad Lawton

Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every
10 rushing/receiving yards).

Next Update: 10/1

* = check status

Quarterback
1. Tony Romo, DAL vs. WAS
2. Jay Cutler, DEN at KC
3. Philip Rivers, SD at OAK
NOTE: He's driving the offense now.
4. Drew Brees, NO vs. SF
NOTE: He's done it with scraps before.
5. J.T. O'Sullivan, SF at NO
6. Aaron Rodgers, GB at TB
7. *Carson Palmer, CIN vs. CLE
8. Trent Edwards, BUF at STL
NOTE: Good chance for multiples against putrid defense.
9. *Donovan McNabb, PHI at CHI
10. Kurt Warner, ARI at NYJ
11. Jake Delhomme, CAR vs. ATL
12. *Brett Favre, NYJ vs. ARI
13. Jason Campbell, WAS at DAL
14. Brian Griese, TB vs. GB
15. David Garrard, JAC vs. HOU
16. *Derek Anderson, CLE at CIN
NOTE: Last call for his job.
17. *Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. BAL
18. Kerry Collins, TEN vs. MIN
19. Matt Schaub, HOU at JAC
NOTE: Needs his mojo back, and quickly.
20. Damon Huard, KC vs. DEN
NOTE: Gives them a shot; Thigpen doesn't.
21. JaMarcus Russell, OAK vs. SD
NOTE: Still a work in progress.
22. Kyle Orton, CHI vs. PHI
23. Trent Green, STL vs. BUF
NOTE: He'll face the same problems Bulger did.
24. Matt Ryan, ATL at CAR
25. Gus Frerotte, MIN at TEN
26. Joe Flacco, BAL at PIT
27. Brady Quinn, CLE at CIN
NOTE: Figure on him starting, sooner or later.
28. Sage Rosenfels, HOU at JAC

Running Back
1. Marion Barber, DAL vs. WAS
2. Marshawn Lynch, BUF at STL
3. Frank Gore, SF at NO
4. *LaDainian Tomlinson, SD at OAK
5. *Adrian Peterson, MIN at TEN
6. Reggie Bush, NO vs. SF
NOTE: Receiving skills needed with others out.
7. Clinton Portis, WAS at DAL
8. Matt Forte, CHI vs. PHI
9. Larry Johnson, KC vs. DEN
10. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC vs. HOU
NOTE: Got off the skids last week.
11. Jamal Lewis, CLE at CIN
12. *Michael Turner, ATL at CAR
13. Steve Slaton, HOU at JAC
NOTE: Undersized, but might be thick enough.
14. *Steven Jackson, STL vs. BUF
15. Earnest Graham, TB vs. GB
NOTE: Give him a pass for crazy Week 3.
16. Chris Perry, CIN vs. CLE
17. Fred Taylor, JAC vs. HOU
18. Thomas Jones, NYJ vs. ARI
19. Jonathan Stewart, CAR vs. ATL
NOTE: Still a No. 2, but will get scoring carries.
20. Selvin Young, DEN at KC
21. *Ryan Grant, GB at TB
22. Edgerrin James, ARI at NYJ
23. Chris Johnson, TEN vs. MIN
24. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT vs. BAL
NOTE: Steps in for injured Parker, tricky matchup.
25. *Darren McFadden, OAK vs. SD
NOTE: Toe injury a legitimate concern.
26. Michael Bush, OAK vs. SD
27. Willis McGahee, BAL at PIT
28. *Correll Buckhalter, PHI at CHI
29. DeAngelo Williams, CAR vs. ATL
30. Pierre Thomas, NO vs. SF
NOTE: Trusted around the goal line.
31. *Brian Westbrook, PHI at CHI
NOTE: Very iffy, play it safe here.
32. LenDale White, TEN vs. MIN
33. Jerious Norwood, ATL at CAR
34. Tim Hightower, ARI at NYJ
35. *Le'Ron McClain, BAL at PIT
NOTE: Fullback gets goal-line looks.
36. Felix Jones, DAL vs. WAS
37. Warrick Dunn, TB vs. GB
38. Michael Pittman, DEN at KC
NOTE: Their designated scorer.
39. Darren Sproles, SD at OAK
40. Fred Jackson, BUF at STL
NOTE: Not a bad spot-play for garbage time.
41. Brandon Jackson, GB at TB
42. Andre Hall, DEN at KC
43. Mewelde Moore, PIT vs. BAL
44. Lorenzo Booker, PHI at CHI
45. *Chester Taylor, MIN at TEN
46. Kenny Watson, CIN vs. CLE
47. Leon Washington, NYJ vs. ARI
48. Jerome Harrison, CLE at CIN
49. Ladell Betts, WAS at DAL
50. Chris Taylor, HOU at JAC
51. Jamaal Charles, KC vs. DEN
52. Ray Rice, BAL at PIT
NOTE: McClain emergence kills his value.
53. Jason Wright, CLE at CIN
54. Garrett Wolfe, CHI vs. PHI
55. Jason McKie, CHI vs. PHI

Wide Receiver
1. Brandon Marshall, DEN at KC
2. Terrell Owens, DAL vs. WAS
3. Steve Smith, CAR vs. ATL
4. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI at NYJ
5. Greg Jennings, GB at TB
6. *Anquan Boldin, ARI at NYJ
NOTE: The Sundance to Fitzgerald's Cassidy.
7. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN vs. CLE
NOTE: Welcome to the 2008 season.
8. Andre Johnson, HOU at JAC
9. Lee Evans, BUF at STL
10. Santana Moss, WAS at DAL
11. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ vs. ARI
NOTE: Doing it 20-to-20, needs goal-line work.
12. Dwayne Bowe, KC vs. DEN
13. Chris Chambers, SD at OAK
14. Donald Driver, GB at TB
15. Roddy White, ATL at CAR
16. *Braylon Edwards, CLE at CIN
NOTE: Limited in Wednesday's workout.
17. Vincent Jackson, SD at OAK
18. Santonio Holmes, PIT vs. BAL
19. *Laveranues Coles, NYJ vs. ARI
20. DeSean Jackson, PHI at CHI
21. Torry Holt, STL vs. BUF
NOTE: It's hard to trust this offense.
22. Antonio Bryant, TB vs. GB
23. Hines Ward, PIT vs. BAL
24. *Eddie Royal, DEN at KC
25. Isaac Bruce, SF at NO
26. Justin Gage, TEN vs. MIN
NOTE: Not in the injury report this week.
27. Chad Johnson, CIN vs. CLE
NOTE: Team says he's healthy, tape says otherwise.
28. Derrick Mason, BAL at PIT
29. *Lance Moore, NO vs. SF
NOTE: Might step up with others hurt.
30. Josh Reed, BUF at STL
31. *Robert Meachem, NO vs. SF
32. *Kevin Walter, HOU at JAC
33. *Bernard Berrian, MIN at TEN
34. Matt Jones, JAC vs. HOU
NOTE: By default, their best option.
35. Antwaan Randle El, WAS at DAL
36. *Justin McCareins, TEN vs. MIN
37. Craig Davis, SD at OAK
38. Patrick Crayton, DAL vs. WAS
39. Chansi Stuckey, NYJ vs. ARI
NOTE: Hey, he keeps scoring.
40. Ike Hilliard, TB vs. GB
41. Reggie Williams, JAC vs. HOU
42. Miles Austin, DAL vs. WAS
43. Hank Baskett, PHI at CHI
44. Michael Jenkins, ATL at CAR
45. Mark Clayton, BAL at PIT
46. Javon Walker, OAK vs. SD
47. Devery Henderson, NO vs. SF
NOTE: Just a one-trick pony.
48. Antonio Chatman, CIN vs. CLE
49. *Jordy Nelson, GB at TB
50. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR vs. ATL
51. Ronald Curry, OAK vs. SD
52. D.J. Hackett, CAR vs. ATL
53. Devard Darling, KC vs. DEN
54. Bobby Wade, MIN at TEN
55. Johnnie Lee Higgins, OAK vs. SD
56. *Reggie Brown, PHI at CHI
57. Greg Lewis, PHI at CHI
58. *Bryant Johnson, SF at NO
NOTE: Nicked up and hard to use here.
59. Rashied Davis, CHI vs. PHI
60. *Brandon Lloyd, CHI vs. PHI
NOTE: Hip injury kills the buzz.
61. James Hardy, BUF at STL
NOTE: More reps with Parrish hurt.
62. *Sidney Rice, MIN at TEN
63. *Jerry Porter, JAC vs. HOU
64. Brandon Jones, TEN vs. MIN
65. Steve Breaston, ARI at NYJ
66. Devin Thomas, WAS at DAL
67. Donnie Avery, STL vs. BUF
NOTE: Steps into the starting lineup.
68. Josh Cribbs, CLE at CIN
69. Ashley Lelie, OAK vs. SD
70. *David Patten, NO vs. SF
NOTE: Might play, but will be limited.
71. *Donte Stallworth, CLE at CIN
NOTE: Late setback, out for another week.
72. *Joey Galloway, TB vs. GB
NOTE: Already ruled out.

Tight End
1. Jason Witten, DAL vs. WAS
2. *Antonio Gates, SD at OAK
3. Chris Cooley, WAS at DAL
4. Tony Gonzalez, KC vs. DEN
5. Kellen Winslow, CLE at CIN
6. Tony Scheffler, DEN at KC
NOTE: Tied to the right offense.
7. Owen Daniels, HOU at JAC
8. Donald Lee, GB at TB
9. Vernon Davis, SF at NO
NOTE: Leaves yards on the table every week.
10. Jerramy Stevens, TB vs. GB
11. Heath Miller, PIT vs. BAL
12. Robert Royal, BUF at STL
13. Zach Miller, OAK vs. SD
14. Bo Scaife, TEN vs. MIN
15. Billy Miller, NO vs. SF
16. Todd Heap, BAL at PIT
17. Randy McMichael, STL vs. BUF
18. Alge Crumpler, TEN vs. MIN
NOTE: Just about unusable at this point.
19. Dante Rosario, CAR vs. ATL
20. Reggie Kelly, CIN vs. CLE
21. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN at TEN
22. Marcedes Lewis, JAC vs. HOU
23. Ben Patrick, ARI at NYJ
24. Dustin Keller, NYJ vs. ARI
NOTE: Four catches in the SD loss.
25. Greg Olsen, CHI vs. PHI
26. Jeff King, CAR vs. ATL
27. Desmond Clark, CHI vs. PHI
28. Delanie Walker, SF at NO
29. Chris Baker, NYJ vs. ARI
30. Brent Celek, PHI at CHI
NOTE: L.J. Smith not expected to go.

Kicker
1. Nate Kaeding, SD at OAK
NOTE: They trust him on long kicks, too.
2. Nick Folk, DAL vs. WAS
3. Rian Lindell, BUF at STL
4. Matt Prater, DEN at KC
5. John Kasay, CAR vs. ATL
6. Josh Scobee, JAC vs. HOU
7. Martin Gramatica, NO vs. SF
8. David Akers, PHI at CHI
9. Mason Crosby, GB at TB
10. Shayne Graham, CIN vs. CLE
11. Ryan Longwell, MIN at TEN
12. Rob Bironas, TEN vs. MIN
13. Jeff Reed, PIT vs. BAL
14. Neil Rackers, ARI at NYJ
NOTE: Might be on thin ice.
15. *Jay Feely, NYJ vs. ARI
16. Robbie Gould, CHI vs. PHI
17. *Matt Bryant, TB vs. GB
18. Joe Nedney, SF at NO
19. Phil Dawson, CLE at CIN
20. Kris Brown, HOU at JAC
21. Matt Stover, BAL at PIT
22. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK vs. SD
23. Jason Elam, ATL at CAR
24. Shaun Suisham, WAS at DAL
25. Josh Brown, STL vs. BUF
26. Nick Novak, KC vs. DEN

Defense
1. Dallas vs. Washington
NOTE: They'll find a way to confuse Campbell.
2. Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore
NOTE: Strong play against rookie QB.
3. Philadelphia at Chicago
4. Buffalo at St. Louis
5. Tennessee vs. Minnesota
NOTE: Who are those guys?
6. Carolina vs. Atlanta
7. Baltimore at Pittsburgh
8. San Diego at Oakland
9. Denver at Kansas City
NOTE: Gang up on the weak club.
10. Chicago vs. Philadelphia
11. Jacksonville vs. Houston
12. Minnesota at Tennessee
13. Green Bay at Tampa Bay
14. Tampa Bay vs. Green Bay
15. New Orleans vs. San Francisco
16. Cleveland at Cincinnati
17. Cincinnati vs. Cleveland
18. Houston at Jacksonville
19. Atlanta at Carolina
20. Arizona at New York Jets
NOTE: They've faded the last two weeks.
21. New York Jets vs. Arizona
22. Oakland vs. San Diego
23. San Francisco at New Orleans
24. Washington at Dallas
25. Kansas City vs. Denver
26. St. Louis vs. Buffalo

By Rob Steingall

Quarterbacks

Jets QB Brett Favre (ankle) is listed as questionable and was limited in practice all week but is expected to start against Arizona. Favre, of course, has never missed a start.

Bengals QB Carson Palmer (right elbow) was a late add to the injury report after experiencing soreness in his arm on Friday. He is listed as questionable, but will play in a very favorable match-up against the Browns.

Eagles QB Donovan McNabb (chest) was held out of practice Wednesday and Thursday, but practiced fully on Friday and will start against the Bears.

Titans QB Vince Young (knee, hamstring) is out, allowing Kerry Collins to start again in Week 4.

Chiefs QB Brodie Croyle (right shoulder) is listed as out, allowing Damon Huard to get the start against the Broncos.

Ravens QB Troy Smith (illness) is out. Joe Flacco will start on Monday night against the Steelers.

Running Backs

Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson (toe) was held out of practice Wednesday before fully working out Thursday and Friday.

Vikings RB Adrian Peterson (hamstring) and Chester Taylor (foot) are both questionable after only participating on a limited basis at practice all week. Anticipate a regular workload for each against the Titans.

Eagles RB Brian Westbrook (ankle) is listed as questionable, although he did not practice at all this week. Expect him to be out and for Correll Buckhalter to start in his place, but follow the news Sunday morning.

Rams RB Steven Jackson (groin) was limited in practice earlier in the week, but participated fully on Friday and will start.

Ravens RB Willis McGahee (eye) is listed as probable after practicing fully on Friday. He is being eased back into regular duty, but expect a tough road against a stingy Steelers run defense.

Falcons RB Michael Turner (shoulder) practiced fully all week.

Steelers RB Willie Parker (knee) is out for the Monday night game against the Ravens. Rookie Rashard Mendenhall, a first-round pick, gets his first NFL start.

Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart (foot) put in a full practice on Friday and will once again split carries with DeAngelo Williams on Sunday against the Falcons.

Titans RB LenDale White (shoulder) is listed as probable after being limited in practice Thursday, but putting in a full practice Friday. He'll split carries with Chris Johnson, and continue to get the goal line action (four TDs already).

Texans RB Ahman Green (knee) is listed as questionable after being limited in practice all week. Rookie RB Steve Slaton looks to be a solid start once again after putting up great numbers last weekend (18 carries, 116 yards, 1 TD).

Jaguars RB Fred Taylor (hand) and Maurice Jones-Drew (ankle) both practiced fully on Friday and are listed as probable against the Colts.

Raiders RB Justin Fargas (groin) is once again out. Teammate Darren McFadden (toe) is listed as questionable this weekend after being limited in practice Thursday and Friday. McFadden and Michael Bush will once again split the carries versus the Chargers.

Wide Receivers

Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin (hamstring) is listed as probable after tweaking his hamstring at practice on Friday.

Browns WR Braylon Edwards (shoulder) has been upgraded to probable after limited participation in practice on Wednesday and Thursday, and a full workout on Friday. Teammate WR Donte' Stallworth (quadriceps) was downgraded to doubtful and won't play on Sunday. He was once again limited in practice before being held out on Friday.

Jets WR Laveranues Coles (thigh) is once again listed as questionable after another week of limited practice. He looked more comfortable on Monday night (six catches and a touchdown) despite the injury, and should be a good play against the Cardinals.

Saints WR Marques Colston (thumb) is once again out and David Patten (groin) is questionable. Lance Moore got the bread-and-butter throws in their place last week.

Niners WR Bryant Johnson (hamstring) did not participate in practice Thursday, and was limited on Friday. He's listed as questionable and will be a game-time decision.

Jaguars WR Troy Williamson (thigh) and Jerry Porter (hamstring) both fully participated in practice on Friday and are listed as probable against the Texans. Williamson will definitely play, while Coach Jack Del Rio has stated that Porter will still be a game-time decision.

Bears WR Brandon Lloyd (hip) is listed as questionable after being limited in practice on Friday. He is expected to play on Sunday, and should once again be a top target in the Bears passing game.

Eagles WR Kevin Curtis (hernia) was limited in practice this week and is listed as doubtful.

Rams WR Drew Bennett (foot) is once again out.

Buccaneers WR Joey Galloway (foot) is once again out this week after not practicing.

Other Positions

Chargers TE Antonio Gates (hip) is listed as probable after being held out of practice Wednesday before practicing fully Thursday and Friday. Expect a strong performance against the Raiders.

Cowboys TE Jason Witten (shoulder) practiced fully all week and is listed as probable against the Redskins.

Saints TE Jeremy Shockey (hernia) is out and will miss the next three to six weeks recovering from the surgery.

Eagles TE L.J. Smith (back) is listed as doubtful after being held out of practice all week.

Bears KR Devin Hester (ribs) is questionable after being limited in practice Thursday and Friday, and will be a game-time decision.

Jets K Mike Nugent (right thigh) is once again out, keeping Jay Feely off the unemployment line for at least one more week.

By David Ferris

Batters

BUY

Lastings Milledge, OF, Nationals: He put things together nicely over the final third of the year (.326, seven homers, 11 steals, .500 slugging), and it came with a nifty screen because the Nationals don't offer a lot of fantasy buzz. Here's the cheapest 20-20 player on the board next year, and you can probably get a decent buy on his running mate, Elijah Dukes, as well.

SELL

Matt Holliday, OF, Rockies: If there's even a 15-percent chance of him being traded this winter, you probably want to beat them to the punch and move him (at full sticker) in a keeper league. Holliday's fantasy value comes from being a dynamic player at home (.357/.423/.645) and an ordinary guy at sea level (.280/.348/.455). His 28 steals from 2008 probably won't repeat; he averaged 12 a year the previous three seasons, and he's approaching the point in his career where running won't be worth the physical toll it takes on his body. This isn't a call to dump Holliday on a whim, but it's a good time to explore just what the market is - before his environment changes significantly.

HOLD

Jayson Werth, OF, Phillies: He's ordinary at best against right-handed pitching, but there's otherwise a lot to like here: a patient approach at the plate, legitimate power (23 homers in 408 at-bats) and a keen sense on the bases (19 steals in 20 attempts). The Phillies plugged Werth into a key batting spot for the stretch run in 2008, and it seems that they're ready to finally give him an everyday spot from the jump in 2009.

Felipe Lopez, Utility, Cardinals: Tony La Russa loves have a few rovers on his roster, guys he can slot all over the diamond, and the versatile Lopez fits that bill (you can play him at six positions, essentially). Lopez finished the year on a mad run (.372 over the final month) and should be in the team's plans for 2009.

Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers: He had a surprising dip in production against left-handed pitching, but otherwise his breakthrough year validated everything we liked in this kid from the moment he hit the bigs in 2006. He's capable of being a five-category player for us into the next decade, so long as the Dodgers give him his everyday spot in March and leave him alone. Given the way Ethier uses the entire park and adjusts to off-speed pitching, a batting title isn't out of the question down the road.

Pitchers

BUY

Ian Snell, SP, Pirates: Roto players are going to run from his 2008 nightmare, but it wasn't as bad as it looked; Snell's ERA came in almost a full run higher than the peripherals suggest, and the league was obscenely lucky against him on balls in play (.364 average). Snell's strikeout numbers took a modest dip, but nothing too crazy; if he can sharpen his delivery and rebuild his confidence quickly in spring training, here's a major profit player to target, for peanuts, at the tail end of your draft.

SELL

Chad Qualls, RP, Diamondbacks: He's already endorsed as the clubhouse leader to close next year in Arizona, which means now is the best time to sell him in a keeper league. The Snakes aren't going to re-sign Brandon Lyon, but other challengers to the throne will be brought in. The smart play is to bet on volatility and hedge against a journeyman like Qualls, who's unlikely to repeat his startling finish to 2008 (the best stretch of his career).

Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers: Young pitchers draw a lot of buzz and generally make terrible investments after their freshman year. Kershaw will need to be great right out of the box to justify what people will pay for him next March; there's no need to be a heavy scout on this one: Simple, contrarian logic will point you to the proper play.

HOLD

Aaron Harang, SP, Reds: The casual player will see the full stat package and blow off Harang, but we like the rally we saw down the stretch, when he was finally healthy again (2.39 ERA over his last seven starts). He's got a good chance to do his 16-win, 200-strikeout thing again next year -- and you'll get it for an affordable price.

By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBIs, stolen bases), and these ranks are aimed at the 2009 season.

* = check status

Next Update: March 2009

First Base/DH
1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
2. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
3. Ryan Howard, Phillies
4. Prince Fielder, Brewers
5. *Mark Teixeira, Free Agent
NOTE: A sure bet, wherever he lands.
6. Justin Morneau, Twins
7. Lance Berkman, Astros
8. David Ortiz, Red Sox
9. Derrek Lee, Cubs
10. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
11. Carlos Pena, Rays
12. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
13. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
14. Joey Votto, Reds
NOTE: Second-half surge flies under radar.
15. James Loney, Dodgers
16. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
NOTE: Don't pay for a career year.
17. Paul Konerko, White Sox
18. Billy Butler, Royals
NOTE: He's legit but there's gridlock here.
19. Carlos Delgado, Mets
20. Chris Davis, Rangers
21. Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
22. Casey Kotchman, Braves
23. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
24. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
25. Jason Giambi, Yankees
26. Daric Barton, Athletics
27. Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays
28. Ryan Garko, Indians
29. *Todd Helton, Rockies
NOTE: Back surgery on the way.
30. Kevin Millar, Orioles
31. Dan Johnson, Rays
32. Kendry Morales, Angels
33. Dmitri Young, Nationals
34. Ryan Shealy, Royals

Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
3. Brian Roberts, Orioles
4. Brandon Phillips, Reds
5. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
NOTE: Could be overpriced in east-coast leagues.
6. Robinson Cano, Yankees
7. Dan Uggla, Marlins
8. Howie Kendrick, Angels
9. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
10. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
11. Kelly Johnson, Braves
12. Jose Lopez, Mariners
NOTE: A Seattle bat that panned out.
13. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
14. Placido Polanco, Tigers
15. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
16. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
17. *Mark Ellis, Free Agent
NOTE: Injuries masked his true value in 2008.
18. Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
19. Kazuo Matsui, Astros
20. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
21. Alexi Casilla, Twins
22. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
23. Felipe Lopez, Cardinals
24. Emilio Bonifacio, Nationals
25. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
26. Clint Barmes, Rockies
27. Jerry Hairston, Reds
28. Jeff Baker, Rockies
29. Eugenio Velez, Giants
30. Alberto Collaspo, Royals
31. Ronnie Belliard, Nationals
32. Ray Durham, Brewers
33. Matt Antonelli, Padres
34. Luis Castillo, Mets
NOTE: Looks like the end of the line, despite the three years left on his deal.

Shortstop
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
2. Jose Reyes, Mets
3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
4. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Michael Young, Rangers
7. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Came on like gangbusters down the stretch.
8. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
9. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
10. Miguel Tejada, Astros
11. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
12. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
13. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
14. Yunel Escobar, Braves
15. Mike Aviles, Royals
NOTE: Late bloomer looks legit to us.
16. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
17. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
18. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
19. Bobby Crosby, Athletics
20. Jason Bartlett, Rays
21. *Jed Lowrie, Red Sox
NOTE: Looks ready to push Lugo aside.
22. Khalil Greene, Padres
23. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
24. Erick Aybar, Angels
25. Brendan Harris, Twins
26. Maicer Izturis, Angels
27. Emmanuel Burriss, Giants
28. *Julio Lugo, Pirates
29. Alex Gonzalez, Reds
30. Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers

Third base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
4. Evan Longoria, Rays
5. Chipper Jones, Braves
NOTE: Skills remain, but pounding adds up.
6. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
7. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
8. Chone Figgins, Angels
9. Alex Gordon, Royals
10. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
11. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
NOTE: Breakthrough year on the way.
12. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
13. Hank Blalock, Rangers
14. Mike Lowell, Red Sox
15. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
16. Ian Stewart, Rockies
NOTE: Limped to finish, but still a lot to like here.
17. *Adrian Beltre, Mariners
NOTE: Decent production despite nagging injuries.
18. Melvin Mora, Orioles
19. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
20. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
21. Joe Crede, White Sox
22. Casey Blake, Dodgers
23. Omar Infante, Braves
24. Mat Gamel, Brewers
25. Josh Fields, White Sox
26. Blake DeWitt, Dodgers
27. Andy Marte, Indians
28. Bill Hall, Brewers
NOTE: Really needs a change of scenery.
29. Brandon Wood, Angels
30. Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
31. Eric Chavez, Athletics
32. Andy LaRoche, Pirates
33. Pedro Feliz, Phillies

Outfield
1. Ryan Braun, Brewers
2. Grady Sizemore, Indians
3. *Matt Holliday, Rockies
NOTE: How aggressively will they shop him?
4. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
5. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
6. Nick Markakis, Orioles
7. Carlos Beltran, Mets
8. Carlos Lee, Astros
9. Carl Crawford, Rays
NOTE: One of 2008's biggest flops.
10. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
11. *Carlos Quentin, White Sox
12. B.J. Upton, Rays
13. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
14. Jason Bay, Red Sox
15. Curtis Granderson, Tigers
16. Manny Ramirez, Free Agent
17. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
18. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
NOTE: More consistency would be appreciated.
19. Corey Hart, Brewers
NOTE: Stat-stuffer still under the radar.
20. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
21. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
22. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
23. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
24. Nate McLouth, Pirates
NOTE: His breakout was more legit than most realize.
25. Hunter Pence, Astros
26. Torii Hunter, Angels
27. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
28. Adam Dunn, Diamondbacks
29. Jay Bruce, Reds
30. Elijah Dukes, Nationals
NOTE: A 30-30 year waiting to happen.
31. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
NOTE: Took off when Manny arrived.
32. Shane Victorino, Phillies
33. Milton Bradley, Rangers
34. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
35. Johnny Damon, Yankees
36. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
37. Delmon Young, Twins
38. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
39. Xavier Nady, Yankees
40. Nick Swisher, White Sox
NOTE: Drop-off had a fluky element to it.
41. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
42. Jayson Werth, Phillies
43. *Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
44. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
45. Pat Burrell, Phillies
46. Randy Winn, Giants
47. Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks
48. J.D. Drew, Red Sox
49. Denard Span, Twins
NOTE: Deserves to keep leadoff gig.
50. Adam Jones, Orioles
51. Mike Cameron, Brewers
52. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
53. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
54. Hideki Matsui, Yankees
55. Aaron Rowand, Giants
56. Jack Cust, Athletics
57. Chase Headley, Padres
58. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
59. David DeJesus, Royals
60. Michael Bourn, Astros
NOTE: One-trick pony, but he does it well.
61. Cameron Maybin, Marlins
62. Carlos Gomez, Twins
63. Juan Pierre, Dodgers
64. Fred Lewis, Giants
55. *Willy Taveras, Rockies
NOTE: Probably on the move.
66. Ken Griffey, White Sox
67. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
68. Adam Lind, Blue Jays
69. Michael Cuddyer, Twins
70. Mark Teahen, Royals
71. Travis Buck, Athletics
72. Jason Kubel, Twins
73. Jose Guillen, Royals
74. Ryan Church, Mets
75. Rocco Baldelli, Rays
76. Marcus Thames, Tigers
77. Nate Schierholtz, Giants
78. Dexter Fowler, Rockies
NOTE: Will get shot at CF job.
79. Josh Willingham, Marlins
80. Carlos Gonzalez, Athletics
81. Colby Rasmus, Cardinals
82. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
83. Luke Scott, Orioles
NOTE: Legit power, but has platoon look.
84. Juan Rivera, Angels
85. David Murphy, Rangers
86. Garret Anderson, Angels
87. Skip Schumaker, Cardinals
88. Wladimir Balentien, Mariners
89. Brian Giles, Padres
90. Matt LaPorta, Indians
91. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
92. Matt Joyce, Tigers
93. Reed Johnson, Cubs
94. David Murphy, Mets
95. Ryan Sweeney, Athletics
96. Andruw Jones, Dodgers
NOTE: Bat speed looks all but gone.
97. Ben Francisco, Indians
98. Joey Gathright, Royals
99. Jody Gerut, Padres
100. Austin Kearns, Nationals
101. Steve Pearce, Pirates
102. Jim Edmonds, Padres
103. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
104. John Bowker, Giants
105. Gary Matthews, Angels

Catcher
1. Russell Martin, Dodgers
2. Brian McCann, Braves
3. Joe Mauer, Twins
4. Victor Martinez, Indians
5. Geovany Soto, Cubs
6. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
7. *Jorge Posada, Yankees
8. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
9. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
10. Kelly Shoppach, Indians
NOTE: He's forced his way into their plans.
11. Bengie Molina, Giants
12. Dioner Navarro, Rays
13. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
14. Jeff Clement, Mariners
15. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
16. Gerald Laird, Rangers
17. Jesus Flores, Nationals
18. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
NOTE: No longer matches the name brand.
19. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
20. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
21. Mike Napoli, Angels
NOTE: Plenty of power, but average risk, too.
22. Ivan Rodriguez, Free Agent
23. Brandon Inge, Tigers
24. Kenji Johjima, Mariners
25. Matt Wieters, Orioles
26. Taylor Teagarden, Rangers
27. J.R. Towles, Astros
28. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rangers
29. Josh Bard, Padres
30. Miguel Olivo, Royals
31. Brian Schneider, Mets
32. John Buck, Royals
33. Jeff Mathis, Angels
34. Rod Barajas, Blue Jays
35. Chris Coste, Phillies
36. Jason Kendall, Brewers

By Mark P. Stopa

Which NFL game(s) will you be watching as we head into Week 4 of the NFL season? We're all fans first; and for me that means that the 3-0 Bills game is must-see TV. But for fantasy purposes, I'm most intrigued by the Bengals/Browns matchup. The values of many fantasy players hinge on the results. Can Derek Anderson play well and keep his job? Or is it Brady Quinn time in Cleveland? Can Braylon Edwards finally start living up to his draft status, now that he has a good matchup? Or is he becoming a fantasy bust? Is Jamal Lewis done? How about Carson Palmer and Chad Ocho Cinco? Can they get untracked against a bad defense, or will they remain busts?

I suspect that I will have a lot to talk about next week regarding these players. But here are my recommendations based on what I've seen through Week 3.

Upgrades

Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys: As the feature back on the NFL's best offense, Barber will continue posting some amazing stats this year. Thirty touchdowns might sound crazy, but it is possible. There is nobody I would not give up for Barber (including the likes of Jay Cutler, Adrian Peterson and LaDainian Tomlinson). Quite simply, this is fantasy football's MVP.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers: He struggled Sunday, failing to toss a touchdown. However, Rodgers rushed for another touchdown on a goal-line sneak, matching the one he got in Week 1 (along with one that he posted in the preseason). The Packers clearly like calling sneaks on the goal line, so I expect Rodgers to finish with six to eight rushing TDs. Compare that to QBs who don't get any (e.g. Kurt Warner) and you are talking about an extra 36 to 48 fantasy points over the course of a season. If you drafted Rodgers as a backup and have someone like Tony Romo as your starter, move Romo for a top-5 RB or WR.

Reggie Bush, RB, Saints: I was skeptical of Bush coming into the season, but things have fallen into place for him. Injuries to Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey have left Bush as the focal point of the passing offense, and Bush has responded. He will never post great rushing stats, but with the Saints defense continuing to struggle, I see no reason (barring injury) that Bush won't continue to play like a top-12 fantasy RB or better (in point-per-catch formats).

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers: Willie Parker has a knee "sprain" and won't play this week. While the Ravens defense presents an imposing challenge for Mendenhall this week, the fact that Parker was declared "out" so early in the week suggests that his injury is significant. Mendenhall's stock is on the rise -- at least for the next few weeks - given that his team traditionally likes to run the ball and lacks any other serious options in Parker's absence.

Steve Slaton, RB, Texans: In what looked like a terrible matchup against a good Titans defense, Slaton posted 116 yards and a TD, prompting Gary Kubiak to name Slaton the Texans' starting running back. Forget about Ahman Green - this is Slaton's job going forward. Slaton is small, so there is injury risk here; but you can say that about any NFL running back.

No Change

Michael Turner, RB, Falcons: Turner already has two monster fantasy games this year, but both were at home against league doormats (Lions and Chiefs). Turner is still a good running back, but he's not in the "elite" category yet, especially with rookie Matt Ryan starting at QB for the Falcons. If you can get Marshawn Lynch, Clinton Portis or Frank Gore for Turner, do so.

Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys: His 112 yards receiving and a TD last week were a fluke. Austin is the Cowboys third or fourth receiver and is well behind Marion Barber, Terrell Owens and Jason Witten in the pecking order. In fact, Patrick Crayton, despite his slow start, is also a more desirable fantasy option.

Downgrades

Jaguars passing game: In the first half of last week's game against the Colts, David Garrard had four completions - all to running back Maurice Jones-Drew. The second half was not much different. The Jags could have salted the game away late with a third-and-goal pass, but ran instead, failed to convert and set the stage for Peyton Manning's go-ahead TD. As long as the Jaguars play this conservatively on offense, Garrard and all Jaguars receivers must be downgraded.

Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers: I called Holmes a "no change" a few weeks ago, but it's time to reevaluate. The Steelers' offensive line looked awful last week, Ben Roethlisberger is nicked up, Willie Parker is hurt and Holmes is not getting any red-zone looks. Add it all up and I doubt that Holmes fulfills his preseason expectations.

Randy Moss, WR, Patriots: The Patriots had a juicy matchup last week, getting to face a Dolphins defense that had just been torched by the Cardinals. Nevertheless, even though Ronnie Brown ran all over the Patriots, forcing them to throw more than they had planned, Moss was missing in action. I suspect that Bill Belichick will spend the Patriots' bye week trying to find ways to get Moss more involved. But given Matt Cassel's lack of a track record, I'm concerned. If I could get a top-20 receiver in a trade for Moss, I'd jump.

By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio), and these ranks are aimed at the 2009 season.

* = check status

Next Update: March 2009

Starting Pitchers
1. Johan Santana, Mets
NOTE: Nasty second half flew under radar.
2. Tim Lincecum, Giants
3. Jake Peavy, Padres
NOTE: Don't sweat unlucky win total.
4. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
5. *C.C. Sabathia, Free Agent
NOTE: A lot depends on where he winds up.
6. Cole Hamels, Phillies
7. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
8. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
9. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
10. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
NOTE: The bext big thing in the NL.
11. Francisco Liriano, Twins
NOTE: Stuff isn't as dominant but results still sing.
12. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
13. John Lackey, Angels
14. Scott Kazmir, Rays
15. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
16. Cliff Lee, Indians
17. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
18. Rich Harden, Cubs
19. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
20. Justin Verlander, Tigers
21. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
NOTE: He'll be full price, but worth it.
22. Edinson Volquez, Reds
23. Jon Lester, Red Sox
24. James Shields, Rays
25. Chris Young, Padres
26. Roy Oswalt, Astros
27. *A.J. Burnett, Free Agent
28. Aaron Harang, Reds
29. Josh Johnson, Marlins
30. Matt Cain, Giants
NOTE: Needs more consistency and focus.
31. Matt Garza, Rays
32. Ervin Santana, Angels
33. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
34. Ted Lilly, Cubs
35. *Erik Bedard, Mariners
36. *Ben Sheets, Free Agent
37. John Danks, White Sox
38. *Derek Lowe, Free Agent
39. Kevin Slowey, Twins
40. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
41. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
42. Manny Parra, Brewers
43. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
NOTE: Let's see it again.
44. Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
45. Oliver Perez, Mets
46. Zack Greinke, Royals
47. David Price, Rays
48. Johnny Cueto, Reds
49. Max Scherzer, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Unreal strikeout potential.
50. Brett Myers, Phillies
51. Brandon Morrow, Mariners
52. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
53. Phil Hughes, Yankees
54. Joe Saunders, Angels
55. *Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
56. Jered Weaver, Angels
57. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
58. John Maine, Mets
59. Fausto Carmona, Indians
60. Mike Mussina, Yankees
61. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
62. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
63. Pedro Martinez, Mets
64. Chris Volstad, Marlins
65. Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
66. Gil Meche, Royals
NOTE: One of most underrated in AL.
67. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
68. Paul Maholm, Pirates
NOTE: Non-buzz market creates discount.
69. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
70. Scott Baker, Twins
71. Mike Pelfrey, Mets
72. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
73. Ian Snell, Pirates
74. Scott Olsen, Marlins
75. Anibal Sanchez, Marlins
76. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
77. Brad Penny, Dodgers
78. Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates
79. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
80. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
81. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
82. Aaron Cook, Rockies
83. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
84. Joe Blanton, Phillies
85. Jon Garland, Angels
86. Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
NOTE: Held up better than expected.
87. Armando Galarraga, Tigers
88. *Kenshin Kawakami, Free Agent
89. Kelvim Escobar, Angels
90. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
91. Alfredo Aceves, Yankees
NOTE: Impressive audition down the stretch.
92. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
93. John Lannan, Nationals
94. Jeff Francis, Rockies
95. Edwin Jackson, Rays
96. *John Smoltz, Braves
97. Glen Perkins, Twins
98. *Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers
99. Jorge Campillo, Braves
100. Nick Blackburn, Twins
101. Eric Hurley, Rangers
102. Anthony Reyes, Indians
103. Sean Gallagher, Athletics
104. Randy Wolf, Astros

Relief Pitchers
1. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
2. Joe Nathan, Twins
3. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
4. Francisco Rodriguez, Free Agent
NOTE: Timing makes him obscenely wealthy.
5. Brad Lidge, Phillies
6. *Joakim Soria, Royals
7. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
8. J.J. Putz, Mariners
9. Jose Valverde, Astros
10. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
11. Francisco Cordero, Reds
12. Matt Capps, Pirates
13. Kerry Wood, Cubs
14. Brian Wilson, Giants
15. Matt Lindstrom, Marlins
NOTE: It's his job to lose.
16. Frank Francisco, Rangers
17. Mike Gonzalez, Braves
18. Joel Hanrahan, Nationals
19. *Trevor Hoffman, Padres
20. Joel Zumaya, Tigers
NOTE: Winter-book favorite to take job.
21. *Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
22. George Sherrill, Orioles
23. *Huston Street, Athletics
NOTE: A deep group pushing him.
24. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
25. Troy Percival, Rays
26. *Billy Wagner, Mets
27. Heath Bell, Padres
NOTE: It's his job when Hoffman retires.
28. *Takashi Saito, Dodgers
NOTE: Beware the age, and elbow problems.
29. Joey Devine, Athletics
30. Chris Perez, Cardinals
31. Jose Arredondo, Angels
NOTE: Is he ready when K-Rod leaves?
32. Jensen Lewis, Indians
33. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
34. Manny Corpas, Rockies
35. Jon Rauch, Diamondbacks
36. Salomon Torres, Brewers
NOTE: They know they need someone better.
37. Scot Shields, Angels
38. Dan Wheeler, Rays
39. Grant Balfour, Rays
40. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
41. Brad Ziegler, Athletics
42. *Brandon Lyon, Free Agent
NOTE: Maybe he'll get a Gagne parachute.
43. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
44. Luis Ayala, Mets
45. Rafael Perez, Indians
46. Taylor Buchholz, Rockies
47. Fernando Rodney, Tigers
48. *Jason Isringhausen, Free Agent
49. Manny Delcarmen, Red Sox
50. *Rafael Soriano, Braves
51. Juan Cruz, Diamondbacks
52. Jeff Samardzija, Cubs
53. Masahide Kobayashi, Indians
54. Rafael Betancourt, Indians
55. Santiago Casilla, Athletics
56. Kyle McClellan, Cardinals
57. Eric Gagne, Brewers

By Chad Lawton

Next Updated: 9/27

* = check status

Quarterback
1. Tony Romo, DAL vs. WAS
2. Jay Cutler, DEN at KC
3. Philip Rivers, SD at OAK
NOTE: He's driving the offense now.
4. J.T. O'Sullivan, SF at NO
5. Aaron Rodgers, GB at TB
6. Donovan McNabb, PHI at CHI
7. Drew Brees, NO vs. SF
NOTE: He's done it with scraps before.
8. Kurt Warner, ARI at NYJ
9. Carson Palmer, CIN vs. CLE
10. Trent Edwards, BUF at STL
11. Jake Delhomme, CAR vs. ATL
12. *Brett Favre, NYJ vs. ARI
13. Jason Campbell, WAS at DAL
14. Brian Griese, TB vs. GB
15. David Garrard, JAC vs. HOU
16. *Derek Anderson, CLE at CIN
NOTE: Last call for his job.
17. *Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. BAL
18. Kerry Collins, TEN vs. MIN
19. Matt Schaub, HOU at JAC
20. Damon Huard, KC vs. DEN
NOTE: Gives them a shot; Thigpen doesn't.
21. JaMarcus Russell, OAK vs. SD
22. Kyle Orton, CHI vs. PHI
23. Trent Green, STL vs. BUF
24. Matt Ryan, ATL at CAR
25. Gus Frerotte, MIN at TEN
26. Joe Flacco, BAL at PIT
27. Brady Quinn, CLE at CIN
NOTE: Figure on him starting, sooner or later.
28. Sage Rosenfels, HOU at JAC

Running Back
1. Marion Barber, DAL vs. WAS
2. Marshawn Lynch, BUF at STL
3. Frank Gore, SF at NO
4. *LaDainian Tomlinson, SD at OAK
5. Reggie Bush, NO vs. SF
NOTE: Receiving skills needed with others out.
6. Clinton Portis, WAS at DAL
7. Matt Forte, CHI vs. PHI
8. Larry Johnson, KC vs. DEN
9. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC vs. HOU
NOTE: Got off the skids last week.
10. Michael Turner, ATL at CAR
11. Jamal Lewis, CLE at CIN
12. *Adrian Peterson, MIN at TEN
13. Steve Slaton, HOU at JAC
NOTE: Undersized, but might be thick enough.
14. Chris Perry, CIN vs. CLE
15. *Steven Jackson, STL vs. BUF
16. Fred Taylor, JAC vs. HOU
17. *Darren McFadden, OAK vs. SD
18. Earnest Graham, TB vs. GB
19. Thomas Jones, NYJ vs. ARI
20. *Correll Buckhalter, PHI at CHI
21. Jonathan Stewart, CAR vs. ATL
NOTE: Still a No. 2, but will get scoring carries.
22. Selvin Young, DEN at KC
23. *Ryan Grant, GB at TB
24. Edgerrin James, ARI at NYJ
25. Chris Johnson, TEN vs. MIN
26. Michael Bush, OAK vs. SD
27. Willis McGahee, BAL at PIT
28. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT vs. BAL
NOTE: Steps in for injured Parker, tricky matchup.
29. DeAngelo Williams, CAR vs. ATL
30. Pierre Thomas, NO vs. SF
NOTE: Trusted around the goal line.
31. *Brian Westbrook, PHI at CHI
32. LenDale White, TEN vs. MIN
33. Jerious Norwood, ATL at CAR
34. Tim Hightower, ARI at NYJ
35. Le'Ron McClain, BAL at PIT
36. Felix Jones, DAL vs. WAS
37. Warrick Dunn, TB vs. GB
38. Andre Hall, DEN at KC
39. Darren Sproles, SD at OAK
40. Jamaal Charles, KC vs. DEN
41. Chester Taylor, MIN at TEN
42. Brandon Jackson, GB at TB
43. Michael Pittman, DEN at KC
NOTE: Their designated scorer.
44. Lorenzo Booker, PHI at CHI
45. Fred Jackson, BUF at STL
46. Kenny Watson, CIN vs. CLE
47. Leon Washington, NYJ vs. ARI
48. Jerome Harrison, CLE at CIN
49. Ladell Betts, WAS at DAL
50. Mewelde Moore, PIT vs. BAL
51. Chris Taylor, HOU at JAC
52. Ray Rice, BAL at PIT
NOTE: McClain emergence kills his value.
53. Jason Wright, CLE at CIN
54. Garrett Wolfe, CHI vs. PHI
55. Jason McKie, CHI vs. PHI

Wide Receiver
1. Brandon Marshall, DEN at KC
2. Terrell Owens, DAL vs. WAS
3. Steve Smith, CAR vs. ATL
4. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI at NYJ
5. Greg Jennings, GB at TB
6. Anquan Boldin, ARI at NYJ
7. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN vs. CLE
NOTE: Welcome to the 2009 season.
8. Andre Johnson, HOU at JAC
9. Santana Moss, WAS at DAL
10. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ vs. ARI
NOTE: Doing it 20-to-20, needs goal-line work.
11. Lee Evans, BUF at STL
12. Dwayne Bowe, KC vs. DEN
13. Chris Chambers, SD at OAK
14. Donald Driver, GB at TB
15. DeSean Jackson, PHI at CHI
16. Roddy White, ATL at CAR
17. *Braylon Edwards, CLE at CIN
NOTE: Limited in Wednesday's workout.
18. Vincent Jackson, SD at OAK
19. Brandon Lloyd, CHI vs. PHI
NOTE: Abused Tampa secondary last week.
20. Santonio Holmes, PIT vs. BAL
21. *Laveranues Coles, NYJ vs. ARI
22. Torry Holt, STL vs. BUF
NOTE: It's hard to trust this offense.
23. Antonio Bryant, TB vs. GB
24. Hines Ward, PIT vs. BAL
25. Bryant Johnson, SF at NO
26. *Bernard Berrian, MIN at TEN
27. Eddie Royal, DEN at KC
28. Chad Johnson, CIN vs. CLE
29. Isaac Bruce, SF at NO
30. *Justin Gage, TEN vs. MIN
31. Derrick Mason, BAL at PIT
32. Josh Reed, BUF at STL
33. *Lance Moore, NO vs. SF
NOTE: Might step up with others hurt.
34. Ike Hilliard, TB vs. GB
35. Matt Jones, JAC vs. HOU
36. *Robert Meachem, NO vs. SF
37. Antwaan Randle El, WAS at DAL
38. Justin McCareins, TEN vs. MIN
39. Craig Davis, SD at OAK
40. Kevin Walter, HOU at JAC
41. Javon Walker, OAK vs. SD
42. Patrick Crayton, DAL vs. WAS
43. Chansi Stuckey, NYJ vs. ARI
NOTE: Hey, he keeps scoring.
44. Miles Austin, DAL vs. WAS
45. Hank Baskett, PHI at CHI
46. Michael Jenkins, ATL at CAR
47. Mark Clayton, BAL at PIT
48. Devery Henderson, NO vs. SF
NOTE: Just a one-trick pony.
49. Reggie Williams, JAC vs. HOU
50. Antonio Chatman, CIN vs. CLE
51. Bobby Wade, MIN at TEN
52. *Jordy Nelson, GB at TB
53. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR vs. ATL
54. Ronald Curry, OAK vs. SD
55. D.J. Hackett, CAR vs. ATL
56. Devard Darling, KC vs. DEN
57. Johnnie Lee Higgins, OAK vs. SD
58. *Reggie Brown, PHI at CHI
59. Greg Lewis, PHI at CHI
60. James Hardy, BUF at STL
NOTE: More reps with Parrish hurt.
61. Rashied Davis, CHI vs. PHI
62. *Sidney Rice, MIN at TEN
63. *David Patten, NO vs. SF
64. *Jerry Porter, JAC vs. HOU
65. Brandon Jones, TEN vs. MIN
66. Steve Breaston, ARI at NYJ
67. *Donte Stallworth, CLE at CIN
68. Devin Thomas, WAS at DAL
69. Donnie Avery, STL vs. BUF
70. Josh Cribbs, CLE at CIN
71. Ashley Lelie, OAK vs. SD
72. *Joey Galloway, TB vs. GB
NOTE: Very iffy again this week.

Tight End
1. Jason Witten, DAL vs. WAS
2. Antonio Gates, SD at OAK
3. Chris Cooley, WAS at DAL
4. Tony Gonzalez, KC vs. DEN
5. Kellen Winslow, CLE at CIN
6. Tony Scheffler, DEN at KC
NOTE: Tied to the right offense.
7. Owen Daniels, HOU at JAC
8. Donald Lee, GB at TB
9. Vernon Davis, SF at NO
NOTE: Leaves yards on the table every week.
10. Jerramy Stevens, TB vs. GB
11. Heath Miller, PIT vs. BAL
12. Robert Royal, BUF at STL
13. Zach Miller, OAK vs. SD
14. Bo Scaife, TEN vs. MIN
15. Todd Heap, BAL at PIT
16. Randy McMichael, STL vs. BUF
17. Alge Crumpler, TEN vs. MIN
NOTE: Just about unusable at this point.
18. Billy Miller, NO vs. SF
19. Dante Rosario, CAR vs. ATL
20. Reggie Kelly, CIN vs. CLE
21. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN at TEN
22. Marcedes Lewis, JAC vs. HOU
23. Ben Patrick, ARI at NYJ
24. Dustin Keller, NYJ vs. ARI
NOTE: Four catches in the SD loss.
25. Greg Olsen, CHI vs. PHI
26. Jeff King, CAR vs. ATL
27. Desmond Clark, CHI vs. PHI
28. Delanie Walker, SF at NO
29. Chris Baker, NYJ vs. ARI
29. *L.J. Smith, PHI at CHI

Kicker
1. Nate Kaeding, SD at OAK
NOTE: They trust him on long kicks, too.
2. Nick Folk, DAL vs. WAS
3. Rian Lindell, BUF at STL
4. Matt Prater, DEN at KC
5. John Kasay, CAR vs. ATL
6. Josh Scobee, JAC vs. HOU
7. Martin Gramatica, NO vs. SF
8. David Akers, PHI at CHI
9. Mason Crosby, GB at TB
10. Shayne Graham, CIN vs. CLE
11. Ryan Longwell, MIN at TEN
12. Rob Bironas, TEN vs. MIN
13. Jeff Reed, PIT vs. BAL
14. Neil Rackers, ARI at NYJ
NOTE: Might be on thin ice.
15. *Jay Feely, NYJ vs. ARI
16. Robbie Gould, CHI vs. PHI
17. *Matt Bryant, TB vs. GB
18. Joe Nedney, SF at NO
19. Phil Dawson, CLE at CIN
20. Kris Brown, HOU at JAC
21. Matt Stover, BAL at PIT
22. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK vs. SD
23. Jason Elam, ATL at CAR
24. Shaun Suisham, WAS at DAL
25. Josh Brown, STL vs. BUF
26. Nick Novak, KC vs. DEN

Defense
1. Dallas vs. Washington
NOTE: They'll find a way to confuse Campbell.
2. Philadelphia at Chicago
3. Buffalo at St. Louis
4. Tennessee vs. Minnesota
5. Carolina vs. Atlanta
6. Baltimore at Pittsburgh
7. Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore
8. Denver at Kansas City
NOTE: Gang up on the weak club.
9. Chicago vs. Philadelphia
10. San Diego at Oakland
11. Jacksonville vs. Houston
12. Minnesota at Tennessee
13. Green Bay at Tampa Bay
14. Tampa Bay vs. Green Bay
15. New Orleans vs. San Francisco
16. Cleveland at Cincinnati
17. Cincinnati vs. Cleveland
18. Houston at Jacksonville
19. Atlanta at Carolina
20. Arizona at New York Jets
NOTE: They've faded the last two weeks.
21. New York Jets vs. Arizona
22. Oakland vs. San Diego
23. San Francisco at New Orleans
24. Washington at Dallas
25. Kansas City vs. Denver
26. St. Louis vs. Buffalo

By Michael Salfino

Last year at this time, we predicted that a number of 2007's most fortunate few would have their organizations scratching their heads in 2008.

Let's first look at how we did on those predictions before stepping back into the batter's box and acting like the apocryphal Babe Ruth as we point our finger to 2009 and try to call our shot with the luckiest hitters due for a fall.

Last week, we noted how a solid majority of players (more than 70 percent) perform worse each year than the prior year. I know it defies our mathematical sense given that statistics are basically static from year to year. But you have to remember that the really good players almost always get worse and the ones who weren't so good often are out of the league or, if they keep their jobs, at least not significantly better. And, of course, there are a fair number of new players each year.

This insight informed my grading on last week's unlucky players, making it more curvy. Five hits and two misses in predicting players to significantly improve is much better than it seems to those who don't know that most players decline.

Now the wind is at our back, not in our face. So the expectations for accuracy should be greater.

We predicted that Magglio Ordonez would hit about .310, not .425, with runners in scoring position (RISP), and that his balls in play (BIP) average would be about average for him (.320). Those numbers are .338 and .311, respectively. Let's call that a single on a batting practice fastball.

Carlos Pena was predicted to hit homers on 20 percent of fly balls, not the 29 percent of 2007. That means we expected 28 homers, not 46. He's hit 31 with a homer rate of about 19 percent. He has hit significantly more fly balls, but that's still a ringing double.

We keep the rally going with B.J. Upton and Mike Lowell. Upton hit about .400 last year on balls in play, which we predicted would be closer to .300 (it is, barely, now at .347). We also said the homer rate would decline from about 20 percent of fly balls, and it did, to an unlucky 6.8 percent. Lowell's .356 with RISP was deemed a joke in '07. This year, predictably, it was .288. Goodbye, RBI.

Our first whiff was Oliver Perez when we went off the stat reservation and looked at unearned runs, which obviously are unearned for a reason. The predicted increase in ERA never materialized.

For Fausto Carmona, we predicted a significantly higher BIP allowed, given his groundball tendencies. While his ERA soared, it was more for a significantly worse K/BB ratio. So we were right for the wrong reason, which is, at best, a long foul ball.

But we plate some runs with Brad Penny and Mark Buehrle. Though Penny was hurt, his homer rate well more than doubled, as we predicted. And Buehrle, who stranded 76 percent of base runners in '07, crashed back right to average, as forecasted (70 percent, which means lots more runs).

I feel like Scrooge laughing over the coal in everyone's Christmas stockings. And all these calls seem so obvious in hindsight. But we at least don't miss the easy stuff. Let's pick some more low-hanging fruit with lucky hitters to avoid in '09.

Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers: He's at .413 with RISP (.252 last year). Maybe he found the Fountain of Clutch. I'm less confident that his BIP average will regress, because Kinsler's line-drive rate of 24 percent is 10th best.

Ryan Ludwick, OF, Cardinals: Even if we stipulate his power as real, he had the lowest percentage of grounders in the game, yet still hit .337 on BIP. If you take out homers, only about 11 percent of fly balls are hits. Of the 12 guys with the fewest grounders, only two are well above average on BIP: Ludwick and Kinsler.

Jason Bay, OF, Red Sox: Fenway is a magic elixir for hitters. But predicted OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage), which looks at where balls are hit, says Bay's Red Sox number should be .791, not .919.

Felipe Lopez, 2B, Cardinals: We're reaching for partial-year players because there just weren't that many lucky hitters this year, given scoring is down about 4 percent. Lopez should have registered a .731 OPS for the Cardinals, not .889.

Kevin Youkilis, 1B, Red Sox: Pick your reason. The rate of homers on fly balls has about doubled. His.368 with RISP makes him this year's Lowell.

Lance Berkman, 1B, Astros: There's not the uptick in line-drive rate we'd expect with such a surge in average on BIP (.346). He seems unlucky in homer rate, but more than makes up for it with average with RISP (.346). His predicted OPS is merely a solid .926, not the sterling .998 actual.

By Michael Salfino

Every team except the Ravens and the Texans has played three games, which seems trifling but is about 20 percent of the season.

Critical mass is building with key stats. We don't have full confidence until all clubs have at least four games in the books. But we're close enough now to highlight those that are likely significantly better or worse than forecasted in August.

Again, the most important stat in the NFL that you don't hear enough about (except here) is net yards per pass attempt (YPA), which factors in sacks. But this week, let's also examine net red-zone possessions for the first time in 2008.

Teams entered Week Three 27-4 when they had the higher YPA than their opponent. But this was about as bad a week as you'll ever see for YPA, with five teams with an edge here losing -- the Raiders, the Bears, the Cardinals, the Saints and the Jaguars. The Broncos, amazingly, have won two games in a row despite being out-YPA'ed. On a neutral field, there's about a 4-percent chance of that happening. At home, like the Broncos have been, the odds go up a bit, but not that much.

But still, 38-9 for the better passing teams is about exactly the .800 win percentage we'd expect based on historical YPA data.

When you finish a season plus-two yards, subtracting the YPA you gain from what you allow, you're a legitimate championship contender and just about guaranteed a ticket to the postseason dance. Eight teams currently make that cut, but Baltimore has played only two games, so we toss them out, leaving, in order, the Chargers, the 49ers, the Cowboys, the Falcons, the Bills, the Titans and the Cardinals. Early YPA returns say these teams are very likely to make the playoffs.

On the flip side, negative two yards or more means you can start thinking about the NFL Draft come Election Day. YPA laggards, in order, are the Browns, the Rams, the Lions, the Chiefs, the Texans (just two games) and the Jaguars. Jacksonville had to dominate all other facets to squeak out a win at Indy and, YPA says, remains very overrated.

Occam's Razor guides our stat analysis: The simplest solution is generally the best. All you really need is YPA. But net red-zone possessions is another great, simple team stat that gets overlooked. Not red-zone efficiency, which, while important, is overrated -- just how many times you get inside the 20 versus how many times you allow the opposition there. Net red-zone possession leaders are, in order, the Eagles, the Cardinals and the Giants (all plus-six or better). The Broncos are plus-four, which may explain their death-defying net-YPA.

Conversely, the Chargers are minus-five red-zone possessions, a check against their high-flying net-YPA. This red-zone stat also says to be wary of the Saints (minus-seven) and the Titans (minus-four). But in the early going, there's so much more YPA data, which factors in every pass. So defer to that now and, really, always.

Now let's make some related player recommendations.

Buy

Michael Pittman, RB, Broncos: Denver is living in the red zone with 15 possessions, and Pittman (four TDs) is the man near the goal line.

Tim Hightower, RB, Cardinals: Arizona has 13 red-zone possessions and this is a good time to get Hightower, as he didn't score in Week 3.

Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers: Forget about 2007 and buy, buy, buy. He's No. 1 in YPA. No one could have foreseen LaDainian Tomlinson's turf toe and the loss of Shawne Merriman crippling their pass defense back in August. But this is the new reality.

J.T. O'Sullivan, QB, Niners: This year's Derek Anderson. Smash through the buying window if you must.

Hold

Thomas Jones, RB, Jets: Strictly a numbers play here. The Jets have been in the red zone 12 times. So Jones should get more than his fair share of easy scoring opportunities. I'm skeptical of his ability to convert.

Matt Schaub, QB, Texans: Give him two more weeks. Schaub's had a very tough schedule (at Pittsburgh, at Tennessee and at Jacksonville this week). He doesn't get his first home game until Week 5 (Colts). Two of his picks last week were late, desperation throws. But you'd better have a Plan B.

Sell

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams: Just two red-zone possessions in three weeks for the Rams, whose bad defense and rotten offensive line create a terrible setup for Jackson and owners who bought his talent while ignoring his environment.

Rudi Johnson, RB, Lions: The Lions bailed on Kevin Smith very fast, but big changes are brewing in Detroit if the owner listens to his son. Johnson's solid Week 3 was a garbage-time fluke.

Derek Anderson, QB, Browns: Be a trader if he manages to save his job this week against the Bengals. The preseason price seemed fair because of the good setup (stud receivers; lousy defense; old, broken-down runner). But backup QBs like former No. 1 pick Brady Quinn are popular enough to run for mayor in towns with lousy teams.

By Michael Salfino

NFL Week 3 featured more high scores and fantastic finishes, along with probably the best gadget package of plays in NFL history. Let's review some highlights in our latest Scouting Notebook.

The Pittsburgh-Philly game should have carried a parental advisory, that's how savagely Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was beaten by Eagles blitzes. In the first half, he was creamed five times in six straight dropbacks, and it didn't get any better from there.

But the bigger surprise attack was unleashed by the Dolphins against Bill Belichick and the Patriots in their own backyard. Five TDs by Ronnie Brown later, including one TD pass - all with QB Chad Pennington flanked wide as a receiver - and the Dolphins had not only an upset but a total undressing of a Patriots team that had won 21 consecutive regular-season games.

Miami kept going back to the well and the Patriots actually looked more confused the more they saw that look. You rarely see a team try a trick play like that more than a couple of times. And when they do, it usually yields diminishing returns.

The Patriots knew what was coming (except for the one time Brown threw), but looked like they were stuck in drying cement. And who could possibly have known that Brown was a lefty thrower when running left on the play? Not me. And obviously not the Patriots.

Interestingly, a more traditional outcome occurred when the Falcons tried a similar look, sans the QB being flanked wide, with RB Jerious Norwood taking the shotgun snaps. A short gain the first time was quickly followed by an eight-yard loss.

While you can chalk the Patriots' defensive ineptitude to chicanery, the Pats suddenly pop-gun offense averaged less than seven yards per completion with Matt Cassel at QB. The training wheels are rightfully affixed, considering how Cassel overlooked a wide open TE David Thomas for an easy long TD on a Dolphin blitz and instead showed skittishness in the pocket by scrambling before fumbling.

Cassel has to learn to just throw it up to No. 84 at times like Tom Brady did.

Game ball to Matt Hassselbeck, who played with efficiency and poise despite losing his top six receivers to injury. Hasselbeck still has some upside once he begins getting starters back after the Week 4 bye.

Giants TE Kevin Boss had been a monster in the running game, mauling various linebackers and even defensive ends. Nice to see him rewarded with a game-saving TD catch against a surprisingly feisty Bengals defense that took Plaxico Burress out of the contest prior to overtime.

Burress seemed to have a TD via a miraculous piece of contortion in the back of the end zone, but the Giants refused to throw the challenge flag with more than three minutes left in the first half. Last year, 37 percent of plays were overturned, a record high. The Giants were 4 for 11; so you think they'd be more aggressive.

Michael Turner has impressed the Falcons with his ability to break and slip tackles and showed he can bowl over defenders, too, on his three-TD runs. But it's still baby steps for Matt Ryan, who did show an NFL arm on a bomb to Roddy White that traveled about 60 air yards.

Always keep an eye on rookies like the Cardinals' Tim Hightower, who are entrusted as third-down backs, proving his coaches think he's smart and tough enough to pick up blitzers.

Earnest Graham was running efficiently until the 12-carry, 16-yard nightmare versus Chicago, which accounts for every gap with eight men in the box. The Bears dared Brian Griese to throw and he did, 67 times for 407 yards in the comeback win.

JaMarcus Russell showed unbelievable arm strength on the skinny post to Johnnie Lee Higgins that should have won the game in Buffalo. Any other QB but Jay Cutler and that ball is knocked down before it touched the receiver's hands.

There's a great setup in Denver for Cutler. He's got an uncoverable receiver in Brandon Marshall, no reliable running back, a master offensive architect (Mike Shanahan) and a defense atrocious versus the pass in two straight home games - a harbinger of more shootouts.

The Saints showed teams can complete a long pass and get everyone set for the clock-killing spike in nine seconds. I remember a few years ago, the expectation was about 14 to 18 seconds. It's like watching a pit stop in auto racing.

Lance Moore (7 catches, 78 yards) found the holes in the zone repeatedly for Drew Brees and the Saints, looking as crafty on third downs as former Jet Wayne Chrebet, who was similarly short and athletically challenged.

That Fox shot behind the kicker from field level makes every 40-yard-plus field goal seem like a million miles away. You expect a miss from that perspective.

Terrell Owens showed unbelievable hustle as a defender on a pick and as a blocker on Felix Jones' long TD run Sunday night. Note how he not only caught but appeared ready to pass Jones, reported to be the NFL's fastest back.