Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

Tight end is a position that can have a ripple effect on offensive firepower. Get a hybrid wide receiver there and you force defenses to pick their poison. Jets head coach Eric Mangini, who traded up to grab rookie hotshot Dustin Keller in the first round in April, explains:

"You have to make a decision: How much coverage do you want to push out to the receiver and how wide open do you want to leave that middle corridor? If you can threaten all three of those areas -- outside and up the middle -- it's a stretch on the opposing defenses."

Mangini was speaking after a recent scrimmage highlighted by a 55-yard Keller catch and run for a TD.

"The play is a really good look at how a tight end can affect the defense," Mangini said. "Deep down the middle of the field he gets over the top, catches it, they miss one tackle and you go the distance."

The economics say that a stud receiving tight end -- someone too fast for linebackers to cover and too big for defensive backs -- is the most valuable guy in the league right now. Teams don't have to pay a lot for them, mostly because there are so few who fit this bill.

Given the NFL's free-agent rules, salaries of all premium players are tied to the average of what the top five players make at each position. This year, that average for tight ends is $4.52 million. Conversely, the average annual salary of the five highest-paid wide receivers is $7.85 million. A healthy Antonio Gates is as valuable to the Chargers as the top wide receivers are to their respective teams. But San Diego only has to pay Gates 60 cents on the dollar compared to what top wideouts cost their teams.

This is why so few big-time tight ends leave their team via free agency compared to players at other positions. So if Keller turns out to be the stud Mangini and the Jets envision, the Jets will more easily be able to slide him under their salary cap for as long as they desire.

Teams demonstrate their belief that their tight end is the type who creates mismatches by targeting him (times thrown to).

Last year's tight-end target leader was the Chiefs' Tony Gonzalez (154). Close behind were Kellen Winslow (Browns, 148) and Jason Witten (Cowboys, 141). Also greatly emphasizing tight ends was Chicago, 132 targets split between Greg Olsen (a rookie last year) and Desmond Clark. The Bears reportedly want Olsen to be the focus of their passing game this year.

If we use these target numbers the right way, we get a sense of the efficiency of each player by noting the average gain per target. Last year, the leader (minimum 40 targets) was the Jets' Chris Baker (9.3 yards per target), followed by Heath Miller (Steelers, 9.28), Ben Watson (Patriots, 9.26), Donald Lee (Packers, 9.1), Gates (8.4), Owen Daniels (Texans, 8.2) and Witten (8.1).

Now for some tight end recommendations.

Buy

Jeremy Shockey, Saints: He had his best year when Saints coach Sean Payton was his offensive coordinator (with the Giants). Payton knows how to deploy him, unlike Kevin Gilbride, who often wasted him as a blocker on third downs. Shockey landed in the league's most pass-happy offense.

Vernon Davis, Niners: He might be a "great tools, no toolbox" guy. Mike Martz hasn't used tight ends in the past, but he's committed to Davis not just in-line, but in four-WR formations. The gamble is whether Davis can master Martz's thick playbook.

Dustin Keller, Jets: Brett Favre always gets production out of the position, and Keller is an elite athlete. Get him as your backup, as he'll start the season sharing snaps with Baker (whom the staff views as a malcontent) and former Packer Bubba Franks (over the hill).

Hold

Kellen Winslow, Browns: He's the Joe Namath of tight ends in that he started his career on borrowed time due to bad knees. We can only imagine how great he would have been if not for that motorcycle mishap. Winslow must endure constant pain to play.

Sell

Chris Cooley, Redskins: The Seahawks-style offense that new head coach Jim Zorn has imported mostly ignores the tight end outside the red zone. Cooley lacks size and playing speed. Expect the catches and yards to underwhelm, even if he manages eight TDs.

Dallas Clark, Colts: A healthy Marvin Harrison pushes him to the backburner in the Colts offense, and the targets (101) weren't heavy even in '07. His efficiency (6.10 yards per target) says he's very overrated.

Alge Crumpler, Titans: Played fat, old and slow for Atlanta last year (6.3 yards per target). Yes, the Falcons QBs were terrible. But Vince Young also has a lot to prove as a passer, and Bo Scaife will share TE looks.

 Tags  Alge Crumpler Chris Cooley Dallas Clark Dustin Keller football Football by the Numbers Jeremy Shockey Kellen Winslow Michael Salfino Vernon Davis

---