Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

When trying to assess which NFL quarterbacks are going to have the most productive scoring seasons in 2008, you need to look beyond the points they generated in 2008 and at the foundation for this performance - pass attempts and the yards averaged on each of them.

Another key component to how well a QB performs is a stat that I've devised called "Functional Arm Strenth" (FAS), which assesses performance only looking at passes that travel 11 to 20 yards from the line of scrimmage. Of course, NFL QBs make longer throws, just not enough of them. While about 7 percent of all attempts are longer than 20 yards from scrimmage (again, air yards only; not run after catch), about 20 percent of attempts are this intermediate 11- to-20 yard passes. These are really the bread-and-butter distance throws in the modern passing game.

Last year, 13 of the top 16 QBs in TD pass percentage (of attempts), were better than the league average of 7.0 yards per attempt (YPA).

The outliers, those good at generating TD passes despite being handicapped by a less than average YPA were Drew Brees (Saints), Eli Manning (Giants) and Philip Rivers (Chargers). So, we immediately need to ask whether these guys are overrated when it comes to projecting 2008 performance.

Conversely, there are four QBs who weren't nearly as productive (at throwing TDs) as their YPA indicates they should have been: Matt Schaub (Texans), Jay Cutler (Broncos), David Garrard (Jaguars) and Jeff Garcia (Buccaneers). All averaged 7.46 YPA or better (anything about 7.5 or over is stellar).

What some QBs lack in quality (YPA), they make up for in quantity (attempts). But attempts often are a function more of playing time (mainly avoiding injury) and the score (bad teams throw more than good because they must play catch-up). We isolate these factors by considering attempts on a per-game basis and how often teams throw in the first and second quarters of games -- when the score is less likely to influence playcalling.

For example, Drew Brees posted a league-lapping 1,200 attempts (about
38 per game) since the Saints acquired him in 2006. He's only been sacked about once per game as a Saint, which gives him minimal injury risk. Eli Manning also is a big-time guy with attempts - 33 per game - while being dumped less than twice per contest, on average. The Giants, too, are more pass-happy than average on all first downs and during the first half of games.

Garcia and Garrard are both injury-prone and play on teams with offensive systems that severely limit attempts, so we're skeptical of their YPA translating as it normally does - especially for the aging Garcia.

Garrard, though, had the league's best arm strength measured by QB rating on our FAS (11- to 20-yard) throws. The other FAS leaders were Matt Hasselbeck (Seahawks), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Tony Romo (Cowboys), Donovan McNabb (Eagles) and Schaub. The worst (100 FAS attempts or more) were Kurt Warner (Cardinals), Peyton Manning (Colts), Jon Kitna (Lions), Brees and Eli Manning. Remember, Peyton Manning lost Marvin Harrison for most of last year, which reasonably caused Peyton's normally stellar performance here to decline.

Now let's use these stats to make some recommendations.

Buy

Jay Cutler, Broncos: The complete package - still young and developing, but already doing well above average in all of our key stats. His low first-down QB rating of 73.4 should get a big boost in '08 given his added starting experience.

David Garrard, Jaguars: Start with 18 TDs versus just three picks. He was seventh-best in TD percentage. If he stays healthy, he'll generate 25 to 30 TDs with his arm and legs, no matter how much the Jags prefer to run.

Matt Schaub, Texans: He's helped by having a super freak at WR in Andre Johnson, too big and fast for all defensive backs. Don't worry about Sage Rosenfels, who is too limited and mistake-prone (one pick every 20 attempts; one every 32 for Schaub).

Hold

Derek Anderson, Browns: He regressed in the second half of '07, as expected. But you don't fluke your way to 29 TD passes your first year as a starter. WR Braylon Edwards cannot be covered.

Sell

Matt Leinart, Cardinals: The weapons are top-shelf, but Leinart seems to move and think in slow motion. This leaves the door open for Warner (21 TD passes the last eight games) as the Cardinals fashion themselves as contenders in a weak division.

Jon Kitna, Lions: This mistake-prone mediocrity was productive thanks to passing guru Mike Martz, now in charge of the Niners offense. Kitna is 35 and the Lions' future is likely behind him on the depth chart.

Philip Rivers, Chargers: He's made a rapid recovery from a torn ACL, but 52 QBs had better YPAs on first down. Rivers also threw just four TDs on 25 attempts inside the opponent's five-yard line (half the league-average rate).

 Tags  David Garrard Derek Anderson football Football by the Numbers Jay Cutler Jon Kitna Matt Leinart Matt Schaub Michael Salfino Philip Rivers

---