Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

Football is the ultimate team game, but no position is more dependant on external factors than wide receiver. It's not merely a matter of being able to beat his man and get open. He first needs the coach to call pass plays, for those plays to have his number and for the quarterback to find him.

Our challenge is to keep track of the coaching carousel and understand that changes there significantly alter ball distribution. Players also change teams, and wide receivers with new NFL addresses have chronically underachieved, Randy Moss and Wes Welker last year notwithstanding. And even if a receiver stays on the same team with the same coaches, the QB can retire or change cities (or both, in the case of Brett Favre).

Let's see how many receivers had at least 100 balls thrown to them last year (that's targets, not actual receptions), got at least one great chance per game to score (a target in the red zone) and are playing in the same environment as in 2007 (i.e., no coaching or QB changes).

The list is so small, we have to round up the red-zone targets. But the Patriots' Batman and Robin (Moss and Welker) stand out.

Moss was targeted (thrown to) nearly 10 times per game, on average, and had 33 targets in the red zone, which led the league. Welker is sliding through the cracks a little, as most figure he's more a complementary player. But only Saint Marques Colston had more chances in the red zone (27, to Welker's 26). Colston had 143 targets, 11th best in the league. Welker's 136 were 15th.

The huge caveat with Moss and Welker is that Tom Brady is going to throw closer to 30 TDs this year than last year's 50, considering how other record-breakers have regressed to the mean.

What about Terrell Owens and Reggie Wayne, generally regarded as being in the same class as Moss?

Owens has trouble playing a full season and had only 16 red-zone targets in 15 games. That's a shame, because he might be the best red-zone receiver ever and certainly is in Moss's class there. But the Cowboys' desire to run increases the closer they get to the end zone.

Wayne, too, plays for a QB who prefers to spread the wealth near paydirt. His 23 red-zone targets were good, but not spectacular, especially when you consider that Marvin Harrison was out most of the season. This year, Indy's plan is for Harrison to be back, which would could cut further into Wayne's looks in those highly leveraged situations.

We'll make some more recommendations below. But here are the others on the list of receivers with at least 100 targets, at least one red-zone look (rounding up) per game and in the same system with the same guy throwing him the ball:

Charger Chris Chambers (129 targets, 13 red-zone targets, though many came with the Dolphins), Eagle Kevin Curtis (135, 16), Brown Braylon Edwards (152, 25), Seahawk Bobby Engram (broken shoulder, 134, 12), Cardinal Larry Fitzgerald (166, 16), Bengal T.J. Houshmandzadeh (170, 24), Bengal Chad Johnson (161, 20), Bronco Brandon Marshall (suspended three weeks, 170, 24), Panther Steve Smith (149, 15), Giant Amani Toomer (104, 21), Texan Kevin Walter (106, 12) and Steeler Hines Ward (113, 22). Stats courtesy of our friends at Rotowire.com

Buy

Kevin Curtis, Eagles: My reports from Philly say the Eagles are going to be a 60-percent pass team again under Andy Reid. So Curtis is certain to continue to again see a high target load.

Kevin Walter, Texans: If the freakishly gifted Andre Johnson is healthy, Walter will operate under the radar of opposing secondaries and get more quality looks. If Johnson gets hurt again, there will be lots of quantity.

Hines Ward, Steelers: He posted those numbers in just 13 games while battling a knee problem. Santonio Holmes had just 85 targets all year, eight in the red zone.

Hold

Torry Holt, Rams: Maybe Al Saunders doesn't count as a new coordinator, since he coached Holt under Dick Vermeil. But that shows how old Holt is getting. And Marc Bulger's shoulder is barking already. On the other hand, Holt's a Hall of Fame talent.

Anthony Gonzalez, Colts: Marvin Harrison is going to be 36, and his knee injury seems chronic in nature. You know Manning will spread the wealth to whomever lines up opposite Wayne.

Sell

Anquan Boldin, Cardinals: His feud with his head coach has turned nasty, and he wants a one-way ticket out of town. Larry Fitzgerald is significantly better and bigger, but Boldin keeps getting more red-zone looks. That seems certain to change now.

Brandon Marshall, Broncos: If his suspension gets reduced, move him up. But three weeks is a lot. Fantasy players only have 12- or 13-week regular seasons. So be sure to discount him.

 Tags  Anquan Boldin Anthony Gonzalez Brandon Marshall football Football by the Numbers Hines Ward Kevin Curtis Kevin Walter Michael Salfino

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