Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By David Ferris

Scouting and formulating opinions is a major part of what we do in this fantasy pursuit, but being able to exploit the opinions of your opponents is what leads to gains in the player swap. Keep that theme in mind as we offer portfolio help in the latest NL Stock Watch.

Pitchers

BUY

Damaso Marte, RP, Pirates: We've seen very little closer turnover in the first half of 2008, but that's about to change; keep an eye peeled to the situations in Colorado (Brian Fuentes' bags are packed), Tampa Bay and Cleveland. The setup doesn't look that tricky in Pittsburgh, where Marte is really the only logical option now that Matt Capps is almost certainly done for the year. Marte shouldn't be bothered by the lefty bias against closers because he's getting batters out from both sides of the plate, and he's got enough juice to put people away in the ninth (44 strikeouts in 40.2 innings). Don't talk yourself into a spec play on Tyler Yates; his 3.67 E.R.A. is a sham when you consider that he's got 30 walks against 26 strikeouts.

SELL

John Lannan, SP, Nationals: The tidy 3.60 E.R.A. for June looks nice, but it's been done with mirrors: seven homers allowed, just 13 strikeouts over 30 innings. Not surprisingly, the league hit just .218 against Lannan on balls in play last month, flat unsustainable. Let someone else bare the brunt of the correction that's inevitable.

SHOP AROUND

Matt Cain, SP, Giants: The strikeout spike is tasty but the full picture reveals a mixed trend -- walks are up, and he's allowing more balls in the air (and more line drives). Cain also seems to lose his focus on the mound for at least one inning every start, and toiling for the punchless Giants doesn't lead to a lot of wins (he's got just 12 over his last 50 turns). Add it all up and the light color becomes yellow on Cain -- he's not someone to dump or run from, but you can probably package his last five starts (2.88 E.R.A., 39 strikeouts in 34.1 innings) and sell high.

Hitters

BUY

J.J. Hardy, SS, Brewers: He was a common drop in most mixed leagues after a dreadful opening quarter, but he's come on like gangbusters since the middle of May (.311/.378/.574, seven homers). Hardy had a two-month run in 2007 where he carried fantasy teams, so we'll jump on board and see how long it lasts. Manager Ned Yost is a believer as well, plugging his shortstop into the No. 2 spot in the order and leaving him alone (Hardy was stuck in the No. 7 position, an NL death sentence, for most of April and May).

J.R. Towles, C, Astros: He regained his stroke and his confidence during a month in Triple-A (.279/.380/.574, five homers), and the Astros quickly recalled him when Humberto Quintero went on the DL. There's a chance Towles could be a useful $4-6 backstop for the final three months, hitting a few homers and stealing a base now and then.

SELL

Luke Carlin, C, Padres: He's the new backstop in Bordertown with Michael Barrett hitting the disabled list, but a starting gig doesn't guarantee fantasy value. Carlin couldn't hit a lick in Triple-A last season (.220/.326/.300) and it's been even worse in 67 at-bats with the Padres this year (.149/.240/.224). Even in NL-only groups, you need to do better.

SHOP AROUND

Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers: His power came back in June (eight homers, .567 slugging) but he still gets himself out too often by expanding his zone, especially with runners in scoring position (.222/.364/.431). The Brewers need Fielder and Ryan Braun (sore hand) to be right if they're going to make a playoff push; this name-heavy offense is a disappointing ninth in runs scored. Fielder's current price in the market probably exceeds his true worth at the moment; at his position he's just 12th in roto value earned through three months of play.

 Tags  Damaso Marte David Ferris J.J. Hardy J.R. Towles John Lannan Luke Carlin Matt Cain NL Stock Watch Prince Fielder

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