Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

Due to very sophisticated technology now available at major-league ballparks, we're able to get accurate readings on pitch velocity to help us better answer the question, "How strongly does speed correlate to pitching success?"

The first thing that jumps out at you is that the hardest throwers are relievers. There are 13 pitchers who average 95 mph or more with their heaters and 11 of them are solely relievers while another, the Yankees' Joba Chamberlain, spent a good chunk of his season in the 'pen.

Teams aren't necessarily putting their most explosive arms in the 'pen, as it's obviously easier to throw harder for a 10-to-20-pitch sprint than for the approximately 100-pitch marathon.

The fastest average fastball is thrown by the Marlins' Matt Lindstrom (97.1 mph). Compare that to the fastest average fastball for a big league starter, 95 mph by the Mariners' Felix Hernandez.

Relievers who average faster than 95 mph after Lindstrom, in order of velocity, are: Brandon Morrow (Mariners), Jonathan Broxton (Dodgers), Brian Wilson (Giants), Manny Delcarmen (Red Sox), Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox), Craig Hansen (Red Sox), Jesus Colome (Nationals), Chamberlain, Matt Thorton (White Sox), Chris Perez (Cardinals, now back in the minors) and Joel Hanrahan (new Nationals closer).

Lindstrom has been ineffective this year, with a 1.51 ratio (baserunners per inning) and just 7.57 Ks/9 innings (nothing special for a reliever) versus 4.29 BB/9.

Morrow, Broxton, Wilson, Papelbon, Chamberlain, Thorton and Hanrahan have been able to translate this velocity into a K-rate of more than one batter per inning. This is most impressive from Chamberlain, who has maintained this rate as a starter. Again, striking out a batter per inning is not nearly as big a deal for a reliever as it is for a starter, because of the reliever's ability to throw maximum effort and to utilize his best pitches without fear that the batter will see them again that night.

After Hernandez, the hardest-throwing starters (all with average fastballs of at least 93 mph) are: Dustin McGowan (Blue Jays, injured), Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies), Josh Beckett (Red Sox), Ervin Santana (Angels), Tim Lincecum (Giants), A.J. Burnett (Blue Jays), CC Sabathia (Brewers), Edwin Jackson (Rays), Justin Verlander (Tigers), Johnny Cueto (Reds), Edinson Volquez (Reds), Matt Garza (Rays), Jeremy Guthrie (Orioles), Zack Greinke (Royals), Daniel Cabrera (Orioles), Mike Pelfrey (Mets) and Seth McClung (Brewers).

Of that list, those who translate velocity best into missing bats are Lincecum, Volquez and Burnett -- all better than one strikeout per inning. Just behind them, at more than 8 Ks/9 are Sabathia, Santana, Beckett, Hernandez, Cueto and Greinke.

But getting back to the key question, note that Chad Billingsley (Dodgers) is third in the majors with 9.51 Ks/9 and his fastball is about average (91.7 mph). Movement and effectiveness of secondary pitches is a separate matter. And those seem to be more important than pure heat when it comes to generating whiffs.

Just for fun, the slowest thrower with the best strikeout efficiency is Ted Lilly (Cubs). His fastball averages just 87 mph (14th slowest in the majors). Lilly, though, generates 8.31 Ks/9, 13th best in the bigs. Perhaps this is related to his lefty advantage.

This data is provided by my friends at Baseball Info Solutions and is readily available to the general public through the great FanGraphs.com site.

Now let's make some recommendations.

Buy

Justin Verlander, Tigers: The bad start over the weekend masks a really impressive stretch where results again were up to the level of his stuff. He has 60 Ks since the start of June against 24 BBs (six wins).

Brandon Morrow, Mariners: J.J. Putz blew another save last night and is not right. Morrow has been lights-out and the Mariners should either turn him into Jonathan Papelbon or begin his conversion back into a starter, the role he was drafted to fill. Seattle grabbed a premier college closer (Josh Fields) last month, but never seems to have a plan.

Hold

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers: He'll be a closer now for 10 years. Remember, Takashi Saito (elbow) is nearing age 40. Broxton allowed three earned runs since June 1 in 22 innings with just six non-intentional walks.

Mike Pelfrey, Mets: Never saw this coming, as Pelfrey seemed a one-note Charlie with the fastball that was too hittable. He's remained a ground-ball machine while cutting his walk rate by a third. Recent trends are even better: five starts in a row of seven or more innings, with 25 Ks, three BBs and just seven runs allowed.

Sell

Edinson Volquez, Reds: Downgrading him as he's been cuffed around a little his last two starts and there are two things to worry about here: The walk rate is too high (4.33/9) and the innings are piling up. Just 34 of his 177 innings in 2007 came in the high-stress, big-league environment. Why not lock in that big profit now?

 Tags  baseball Baseball by the Numbers Brandon Morrow Edinson Volquez Jonathan Broxton Justin Verlander Michael Salfino Mike Pelfrey

---