Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

As baseball catches its collective breath during the All-Star break, let's try to spot the teams and players due for significant surges or dramatic declines.

There are two team stats we use to confirm the validity of current won-loss records. Net on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) merely takes the sum of the bases gained on offense and subtracts it from those allowed by the pitching/defense. I prefer it to net runs, the basis of Bill James' groundbreaking "Pythagorian" theorem, because net-OPS should be the foundation for run differential and is a bigger sample of data.

Typically, the range in net OPS is plus-.100 to minus-.100 (best net OPS team to worst). And this season is thus far playing close to that form. The Red Sox exit the break atop the net OPS leaderboard at plus-.109, the Nationals last at minus-.093.

Last year here, we used net OPS to identify the Cubs and the Yankees as the two teams most likely to surge. We also seriously doubted the Diamondbacks. While Chicago and New York did indeed dramatically surge and punch postseason tickets, Arizona continued to play well enough to finish with the best record in the National League. Still, those results seem encouraging enough to give this stat another look.

This year, the Braves are the biggest net OPS outlier: sixth-best in baseball at plus-.040. If net OPS perfectly correlated with record, they'd be on pace now for about 88 wins, not 77.

Even more lucky than the Braves are unlucky, says net OPS, are the Angels, 19th overall at minus-.010. That should put them on pace to win 79 games. Instead, their intangible/lucky ability to win close contests (36-18) has them on pace for 97 wins.

Net OPS says the division leaders in the AL right now should be the Red Sox, the White Sox and the A's, with the Rays as the wild card. The A's are six games back and arguably packing it in; witness the Rich Harden trade. And even if the Angels play about .500 the balance of the year (as net OPS predicts), they still win 92 games.

In the NL now, net OPS says the division leaders should be the Braves, the Cubs and the Diamondbacks, with the Phillies edging out the Mets as the wild card -- plus-.034 to plus-.032, about a half-game equivalent in the standings. The Phillies really do lead the Mets by exactly that margin -- but the Braves are 6.5 games back and rumored to be in dumping mode like the A's.

Keep one thing in mind if you're persuaded that net OPS has more predictive value than, say, current won-loss records. It only works if the teams in question continue to compile net baserunners and bases at about their current rates, which, while arguably likely, is not remotely guaranteed.

The same is true for players. The data we examine gives us more predictive power by providing larger sample sizes (bigger numbers) than do more conventional baseball statistics. But individual results can widely vary.

Buy

Freddie Sanchez, 2B, Pirates: Hitting .243 on balls in play (BIP) despite a robust 24-percent line-drive rate. When he hit .344 overall in 2006, his BIP average was .364 and his line-drive rate just slightly higher at 27.5 percent. Last year, his BIP was .328.

A.J. Burnett, P, Blue Jays: Typically disappoints due to injury, but the stats say he should have an appreciably better E.R.A. (3.69 instead of his 4.96 actual). The big reason is that 34 percent of his baserunners are scoring; last year, just 24 percent did.

Jeff Francoeur, OF, Braves: He's hit more than .320 with runners in scoring position each of the last three years. This year, .198. His BIP average is .261, it was .337 in '07. Note, though, that the power (rate of fly balls that become homers) has declined four straight years and is now below average.

Hold

Cliff Lee: I depart from many analysts in my belief that homers allowed are largely lucky, too. Give Lee an average rate of homers allowed on fly balls and his E.R.A. spikes more than a run to 3.16, which we'll still gladly take.

Sell

Lance Berkman, 1B, Astros: Has a .370 BIP despite a modest 17.2 line-drive percentage (Ryan Ludwick leads the majors at 27.5 percent line drives). About 75 percent of line drives are hits. Also note that home runs don't count as balls in play.

Casey Blake, 3B, Indians: He's hitting .390 with runners in scoring position. Last year, .190. He's a career .262 hitter. Blake's near 100-RBI pace will decline to about 80 once this "clutchiness" corrects.

Justin Duchscherer, P, A's: His BIP average allowed is .210. Normalize that rate and his E.R.A. grows to 3.35. Then give him an average rate of homers on fly balls and it jumps all the way to 4.16 (my second-half projection).

 Tags  A.J. Burnett baseball Baseball by the Numbers Casey Blake Cliff Lee Freddie Sanchez Jeff Francoeur Justin Duchscherer Lance Berkman Michael Salfino

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