Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

We've already seen two big interleague trades, with one team -- the Indians -- receiving one of the game's better prospects plus, and the other -- the A's -- getting a bunch of B-level guys.

That's the difference between trading the defending Cy Young Award winner pitching at the top of his game of late and dealing a precocious but always disabled hurler (Rich Harden) who half the league suspects has a shoulder hanging together by a thread.

The Indians' primary CC Sabathia haul, OF/1B/DH Matt LaPorta, rose up the preseason prospect rankings into the top 10 overall in many places, courtesy of his hot professional debut at Double-A Huntsville (20 homers, .987 OPS).

Let's look at other top prospects not yet in the majors to better understand whom teams long for as the major-league trading deadline approaches (July 31).

There's some debate whether Orioles C Matt Wieters or Rays lefty David Price is No. 1. The Pirates are reportedly asking for Price in return for OF Jason Bay, which the Rays rightfully refuse to consider.

Price, the 2007 overall No. 1 pick, wowed Alex Rodriguez this spring when both were rehabbing, then equally impressed no less a pitching authority than Pedro Martinez while the Mets hurler was rounding into shape in Single A. Price was recently promoted to Double-A Montgomery and should be in the Rays rotation come August, and maybe even sooner, if Scott Kazmir's recent slide is injury related.

The 6-6, 225-pound Price has a 1.68 E.R.A. in the minors and hasn't allowed a homer in 53.7 innings. He's a ground-ball specialist who throws 97 mph with three other major-league-caliber pitches. Good luck with that, hitters.

Wieters is a super-sized Johnny Bench, throwing out 40 percent of baserunners and mashing the ball consistently from both sides of the plate. He received the most money ever for an amateur talent after the Orioles took him No. 5 overall last year. The 6-5, 230-pounder is now in Double-A Bowie, where he's hitting .342 with a 1.023 OPS after hitting .345 with a 1.024 OPS in Single A. He's mashed 17 homers and struck out 53 times with 51 walks in 267 at-bats. He's ready for the majors right now, but the Orioles probably will wait until March.

There's a considerable drop after these two, at least in the eyes of most scouts.

Cardinals CF Colby Rasmus has been unable to sustain any success in Triple A, hitting .249 with a .752 OPS. Blue Jays DH Travis Snider, just 20, is striking out 30 percent of the time in Double A but is showing power considering his age. Scouts I've sampled believe Pirates CF Lawrence McCutcheon is overrated, as he swings from his heels too much without the power to show for it. Marlins CF Cameron Maybin is another young hitter struggling to make contact -- 28 percent K-rate in Double-A with an .818 OPS, impressive enough for a 21 year old.

While most think the second-best pitching prospect in baseball that we haven't yet seen in the majors is Tigers righty Rick Porcello, I think it's actually Giants lefty Madison Bumgarner -- 8-2 with a 1.77 E.R.A. and 91 Ks with 15 BBs in 81 innings for Low-A Augusta. Bumgarner is still 18.

Let's make some recommendations, for 2008 only, on rookies and other prospects who have already sampled the big leagues.

Buy

Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays: Arizona Fall League scouts were split on his holier-than-thou attitude. But if you were this good, you'd be cocky, too. He's Ryan Braun with a Gold Glove.

Hold

Clay Buchholz, P, Red Sox: His dominance was way down in Triple A (8.9 K/9 vs. 12.8 there last year). And his walks were up. We can no longer say he's a sure-fire ace. But he's back in the BoSox rotation.

Jay Bruce, OF, Reds: He's been exactly a league-average hitter so far (.782 OPS), impressive for a 21-year-old. The 22.6-percent line-drive rate and homers on 17.6 percent of flyballs are well above average. The K-rate (29 percent) is troubling.

Sell

Clayton Kershaw, P, Dodgers: He was spunky about getting sent down, which is good. But the Dodgers want the 20-year-old lefty to work on his control (5.6 walks per nine innings).

Alex Gordon, 3B, Royals: His walk and K rates are progressing, but Gordon flashes below-average power (8.7 percent of fly balls clear the wall), not good when you are extreme at hitting the ball in the air.

Andrew Miller, P, Marlins: Maddenly inconsistent, this lefty has strung together two quality starts in a row only twice and never made it to three. Miller continues to seem unlucky in stranding baserunners (63 percent, average is 70 percent). His velocity decline is raising red flags: 91.2 mph fastball on average now, 94.3 mph in 2006.

 Tags  Alex Gordon Andrew Miller baseball Baseball by the Numbers Clay Buchholz Clayton Kershaw Evan Longoria Jay Bruce Michael Salfino

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