Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

The Interleague part of the baseball schedule is over and the AL again bested the NL, head-to-head, 149-102 -- the fifth straight year that the AL has won the series. Let's try to make sense out of this apparent stretch of AL dominance.

Last year, the AL finished 137-115 versus the NL in regular-season play. In 2006, the AL bested the NL 154-98; and, in 2005, it was 136-116 in favor of the AL.

Case closed? Consider some caveats. Interleague play isn't the best way to assess the relative strength of each league because the leagues don't actually play one another, individual teams do in various combinations. Only a small percentage of the possible combinations of teams are tested each year.

And the drawback to making judgments based on multi-season data is that the players are always changing. So what happened in 2006 doesn't really mean much in assessing the leagues in 2008.

But while the chance that the AL is better than the NL is not as likely as certain as recent records suggest, it's still likely. So why is the AL likely consistently better?

AL teams have higher average payrolls than NL teams: $97.5 million per team this year in the AL, $83.3 million in the NL. Note this gap is shrinking, though, as average payrolls increased about $5 million in the AL and $10 million in the NL this offseason. All payroll data was provided by the Associated Press based on opening day rosters.

One big problem you see with these averages is that the Yankees are breaking the bank at the top ($209 million) and, at the bottom, the Marlins are paying half as much in payroll as any other team ($21.8 million, or less than what the Yanks pay just Jason Giambi). Take away these top and bottom outliers and the AL now beats the NL in average payroll, $88.9 to $87.4 million.

Note that the Bombers spend $73 million on Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Giambi this year, more than 11 teams spend on their entire rosters.

Not discounting for the Yanks and Marlins problem and assuming that the AL played the NL in a more uniform and thus statistically reliable way, we would expect the AL to go 136-115 based only on the additional money each team, on average, spends on players. Of course, this assumes that payroll correlates perfectly to wins, which it doesn't. Just ask the Yankees, looking way up at the standings at the Rays - baseball's second-lowest payroll team at just $43 million and change.

We also see evidence of payroll not correlating to performance when we look at the list of the league's highest-paid players. Let's assess whether their future on-field fortunes are likely to be bullish or bearish. Individual salary in parentheses, courtesy of USA Today.

Buy

Torii Hunter, OF, Angels ($16.5 million): He's disappointed with the power and has hit homers on 10.7 percent of fly balls, about league average. His last six years with the Twins, it was about 16 percent. The problem is on the road, where he's slugging .351. Expect a big correction.

Andy Pettitte, P, Yankees ($16 million): His fastball is only slightly slower (88.4 mph on average), but he's getting more Ks and walking less men than last year. He's also getting more grounders (53 percent), though that's increasing his hit rate (.319 allowed on balls in play).

Randy Johnson, P, Diamondbacks ($15.1 million): Average fastball is just 91 mph now. But the K/BB ratio is very healthy. He's allowing a .354 average on batted balls (.303 for his career). If he stays healthy - a big if - the results should be much better.

Hold

Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners ($17.1 million): He's running wild on the bases, with 33 thefts already (37 all of last year). This spryness is quite a surprise considering he turns 35 in October. He's hitting under .300, but his average on balls in play (.322) is the second lowest it's been during his eight big-league seasons.

Johan Santana, P, Mets ($17 million): He's lost about two miles per hour on his fastball from 2006, but nothing relative to last year. The K rate is down and walks are up, but still sit in solid territory. Remember, he's been much better historically in the second half.

Manny Ramirez, OF, Red Sox ($19 million): The power has bounced back somewhat (17.8 percent of fly balls now clear the wall vs. 23.5 percent in 2006). He's striking out 25 percent of the time (19 percent last year). He's still very good, but, at 36, clearly in decline.

Jason Giambi, 1B, Yankees ($21 million): He was dead weight that the Yanks were finally going to be clear of next year. But now they might consider taking that $22-million option ($5 million buyout). His strikeout rate is down from 26 percent of at bats to 18.6 percent. And he's hitting homers on 18 percent of fly balls (14 percent last year).

Sell

Mike Hampton, P, Braves ($16): He's thrown 69 big league innings since 2004, during which time he's earned $55 million (including this year). That's about $800,000 per inning.

Rafael Furcal, SS, Dodgers ($15.7): He's been out since May 6 and his rehab assignment lasted four innings after he woke up yesterday with more pain.

 Tags  Andy Pettitte Baseball by the Numbers Ichiro Suzuki Jason Giambi Johan Santana Manny Ramirez Michael Salfino Mike Hampton Rafael Furcal Randy Johnson Torii Hunter

---