Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By David Ferris

While the shrewd fantasy owner always wants to learn from history, a short memory can help in other cases -- sometimes there's every reason to believe the player before us has truly taken a step forward and will be a fantasy asset for the balance of the season. Keep that theme in mind as we sort through some second-chance properties in this week's edition of the player swap.

Hitters

BUY

Chase Headley, 3B/OF, Padres: There was nothing left for him to prove at Triple-A (.305, 13 homers, .939 OPS), and the offensively challenged Friars need all the help they can get. Headley's pedigree is probably a shade less than Evan Longoria's, and we'll also discount about 10 percent for the giant park he'll be toiling in. Nonetheless, we'll also commit to a .275 average and 10 to 12 homers for the switch-hitting Headley the rest of the way, and the dual-position eligibility is always a perk. He's probably here to stay.

Russell Branyan, 3B, Brewers: He air-conditions the fans in Miller Park (23 whiffs in 59 at-bats), with a souvenir baseball to follow now and again (nine homers). Milwaukee fans remember this act -- Rob Deer did it, from the other side of the plate, in the late 1980s. If you're desperate for power in a deeper league, I'll sign off on a short-term Branyan look-see, just don't get committed to anything past June. And in the meantime, Bill Hall sits on the bench.

SELL

Elijah Dukes, OF, Nationals: He's getting on base (19 walks in 111 at-bats) and running aggressively (six steals); that's the good news. Flip side: There's been no real power (one homer, .351 slugging), and the personality demons loom (Dukes had a gigantic rap sheet in Tampa Bay; he had a dugout run-in with Manny Acta earlier this month). You can probably write a sell-ticket here, finding a speed sympathizer who wants to buy into the recent run.

HOLD

Randy Winn, OF, Giants: He's quietly making a dent in all five categories (.297-38-5-27-10), and the line will look prettier if he's shipped to contender during the summer (Atlanta may have interest; any new club would be a boost over San Francisco).

Pitchers

BUY

Mike Gonzalez, RP, Braves: He's got the stuff to handle the late innings, using his mid-90s heater and late-breaking slider to baffle hitters from both sides of the plate. But Gonzalez has always been a high-risk physical property, and he's only a year removed from Tommy John surgery. Bobby Cox can't afford to play wait-and-see; he put Gonzalez into a save situation right out of the chute Wednesday, and the lefty responded with a perfect inning. Toss the dice; let's see what sticks.

SELL

Jeff Suppan, SP, Brewers: He's racking up a lot of quality starts, but he's doing it with mirrors -- that 3.68 E.R.A. isn't supported by his strikeout/walk rate (47 whiffs, 37 walks) or his bloated 1.46 WHIP. In less-sophisticated groups you can generally sell the basic numbers, so focus on Suppan's tidy E.R.A. and three recent wins, and see if you can slide an upgrade out of this.

Homer Bailey, SP, Reds: Three dreadful turns (8.76 E.R.A., 10 walks, 6 homers, just 3 strikeouts) got him returned to the bush leagues, probably for the balance of 2008. The lesson with young pitching is simple -- stay skeptical, be a contrarian, and look to sell these guys right before they make their MLB debut. We'll revisit Bailey (and Arizona's Max Scherzer) in a year or two, when they're priced for profit in the post-hype bin.

HOLD

Ricky Nolasco, SP, Marlins: Mixed trends to look at -- lefties dig in a little too much (.294 average, 13 homers), but he's improved his strikeout and walk numbers over the last nine starts, along with six pretty wins. Throw in a roomy home park and a solid offense supporting him, and there's enough to trust Nolasco in mixed groups.

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