Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By David Ferris

Don’t sweat the names too much; we play in a game where the numbers are king. Let’s kick the tires and look under the hood of some NL movers and shakers, trusting that there’s truth in 10 weeks of data.

Pitchers

BUY

Ted Lilly, SP, Cubs: He’s rebounded nicely from the nasty first month, spotting his fastball better and putting batters away when he’s ahead in the count. The last 10 turns show the type of numbers you can expect the rest of the way (3.88 E.R.A., 63 strikeouts against 19 walks over 60.1 innings).

SELL

Ian Snell, SP, Pirates: Trends are all over the map here. His strikeout rate is down but just a shade; he’s allowed just five homers all year; and his ground-ball rate is in a friendly area. That’s enough for the corporate raider to ponder a buy-low, but let’s look at the red-ink too: 4.5 walks per nine innings; 24.8 line-drive rate. I don’t see a black-and-white conclusion to Snell in 2008; the depth of your league decides how usable he is. In a mixed context, I’d want someone a lot safer, and I’ll need more evidence before I consider him a Top 50 starter again.

Johnny Cueto, SP, Reds: Young pitching can break your heart, Example No. 873. Cueto’s fly-ball tendencies have led to a bunch of home runs (11 over his last 38.2 innings), and 23 walks over that span suggest he’s nibbling too much. Roto players worry about Cueto’s home environment, but the majority of the hiccups have come on the road (7.28 E.R.A., 1.75 ratio). Cueto’s strikeout upside makes him defendable as a 5x5 play, but don’t suffer his growing pains if your league doesn’t include strikeouts.

Brad Penny, SP, Dodgers: His command has been spotty all year, he’s having trouble putting away hitters, and his home-run rate has gone through the roof. Yep, that’s how you assemble a 5.38 E.R.A. in a pitching-friendly environment. I’d still take Penny at a completely speculative price, but I’m not willing to chop the cost in an expectant way.

HOLD

Randy Wolf, SP, Padres: I’m still not sure he’ll be relevant in August and September, but he’s given us six strong turns in a row (2.29 E.R.A., 6 walks against 35 strikeouts), in part because they’ve all come in pitcher-friendly yards (get out a driver and a tee if you want to hit one out of Petco). Put Wolf into the “spot play” file for mixed groups, and give him a rubber stamp for now in NL-only leagues.

Batters

BUY

Jose Castillo, Utility, Giants: His four years in Pittsburgh didn’t get anyone excited, but the Giants liked Castillo enough to give him a regular gig, and we’ve seen decent returns over the last five weeks (.300/.345/.492, 20 runs, 17 RBIs). Throw in three positions of eligibility and the occasional trips to Colorado and Arizona, and I’ll find mixed-league room for Castillo, at least in a rover position off the bench.

SELL

Jerry Hairston, Utility, Reds: It was fun while it lasted, anyway. A busted thumb Monday put Hairston on the disabled list, and Jeff Keppinger is just about ready to come off the DL anyway. Translation: Hairston figures to be a bench player when he returns. At least Hairston gave us two steals and a run scored the night he got hurt.

HOLD

Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves: This is starting to look more and more like George Brett, 1980. Brilliant hitter, often hurt, walks a ton, .400 likely to be in play deep into the second half. Jones doesn’t get any boost from his legs (one infield hit) or an artificial surface, though he is somehow hitting .459 in Atlanta. A batting title season might be enough to lock up a Hall of Fame plaque.

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