Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By David Ferris

Don't get tripped up by name brands and buzz indexes when playing the market; what good is reputation in a game of numbers? Toss out your preconceived notions and have a look at the current NL landscape.

Hitters

BUY

Randy Winn, OF, Giants: His line-drive bat doesn't suffer in roomy AT&T Park; Winn's entire stat line gets a mild bump when he's playing at home. Winn didn't have a lot of teammates to drive in last month, but otherwise he filled the box score admirably (.333, 24 runs, 5 homers, 4 steals). Don't let the age (Winn turns 35 next month) get you off the scent; Winn remains a sneaky-productive plug-in for the back of your outfield.

SELL

Khalil Greene, SS, Padres: He's hitting more fly balls than ever, not necessarily a good thing when you play half of your games at cavernous Petco Park. Of course when you strike out in more than a quarter of your at-bats, no stadium is going to be able to save you. An eye issue might have contributed to Greene's terrible April (.214), but things weren't much better in May (.196/.228/.355), even with five homers mixed in. While it's nice to get some pop from the shortstop position, Greene is nonetheless hard to carry given his batting-average risk and conservative nature on the bases. Hanging out in the punchless San Diego lineup doesn't help the bottom line; despite the presence of slugging 1B Adrian Gonzalez, the Friars average a league-low 3.67 runs per game.

HOLD

Nate McLouth, OF, Pirates: He's been more selective this year, and making better contact on his actual swings -- the .310 average is more real than many realize. Throw in 13 homers and a .585 slugging percentage and the Pirates might have to consider McLouth a No. 3 hitter, not a leadoff man. Fantasy owners would prefer the three-slot, which adds to the runs undertow, especially in the National League.

Pitchers

BUY

Salomon Torres, RP, Brewers: He's worked seven clean outings in a row, which means he probably keeps the ninth inning to himself even when Eric Gagne returns. Spotty control limited Torres' effectiveness when he was relegated to middle relief, but he hasn't issued a free pass since moving to the head of the bullpen committee.

Blaine Boyer, RP, Braves: He's not a ninth-inning guy yet, but may eventually be, given how the dominoes are falling in Atlanta (John Smoltz injury, Manny Acosta slump, Gonzalez slow rehab). Boyer is murder against righties (.188 batting-average allowed), strong enough against lefties, and his stuff is potent enough to finish games out (32 strikeouts in 34.1 innings). Not a strong buy order yet, but a speculative one in deeper leagues.

SELL

Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers: In your keeper group, sure, hold on with both hands. But don't expect the world for the next four months; the Dodgers aren't going to overly tax Kershaw (he won't go over 170 innings), and he's had bouts of wildness for his entire pro career. Wait until Kershaw spins another seven- to eight-strikeout game, then look to sell in redraft groups.

HOLD

Ryan Dempster, SP, Cubs: He's got nasty stuff when he's on, the new and tighter windup seems to be working, and the Cubs support him with the best offense in the league. Flip side, Dempster's still walking too many batters (four free passes per nine innings), and he's been pretty lucky on balls in play (.231). Add it all up and you know a correction is coming, but it's not going to be a falling through the floor, either. Dempster should be one of the NL's 20 best starters for the balance of the year.

Edinson Volquez, SP, Reds: The Rangers always knew he had the stuff to be a potential ace (mid-90s heater, devastating change), but spotty command and occasional gopheritis held Volquez back. What a difference a year makes. Volquez is dodging plenty of bats this year (91 strikeouts in 75 innings) and he's keeping the ball in the park (just three homers allowed; 53 percent ground balls), so we can look past his 38 walks. The Reds have stockpiled a dazzling group of young pitchers, and Volquez legitimately stands at the front of the pack.

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