Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By David Ferris

The weather heats up, ballparks get smaller, pitching frustrates us more than ever. Sounds like June is here. Settle in for another four-hour day at the park and let’s see who’s moving up and down in the Junior Circuit.

Hitters

BUY

Alexi Casilla, Twins: He’s been more patient this year and he’s ripping the ball all over the park since the Twins gave him the starting gig (.343). Just two steals right now, but Casilla has the legs to get 30-40 over a full season (he snagged 11 in just 189 at-bats last year). Minnesota’s lineup card doesn’t overwhelm anyone, but at least Casilla is slotted into the cushy No. 2 spot, hitting right in front of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer.

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox: I’m astounded that the fantasy world hasn’t totally flipped for this guy yet. The stats scream out at you: 28 walks against just 24 strikeouts, 28 steals on 31 attempts, 42 runs, even four homers. May we all draft as well for ourselves as the Red Sox did in 2005 (the first four picks were Ellsbury, Craig Hansen, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie). Ellsbury’s sore wrist doesn’t curb my enthusiasm too much; maybe the price just got a little lower in keeper groups.

SELL

Victor Martinez, C, Indians: No homers, a major dip in doubles, less fly balls -- giant red flags to be sure. There’s a mild uptick in his line-drive rate, which saves his average, but it’s officially time to be worried here. If you want to accept 80-90 percent of the name-brand price, I’ll sign off.

HOLD

Milton Bradley, OF, Rangers: OK, OK, we know the flags here. Bradley is an injury-prone guy, and somewhat combustible to say the least. Most of his production is coming at home, where the Arlington undertow is churning out a nightly slugfest (111 total runs over the last six games, for crying out loud). But it’s not like Bradley isn’t doing anything on the road (.295, 19 runs, 14 RBIs over 30 games), and man are those home numbers tasty (.386/.495/.830). Enjoy the ride.

Nick Markakis, OF, Orioles: We’ve seen a nifty little spike since he moved to the No. 2 slot (.318/.400/614, three homers), not that I was ever down on this guy. He’s still got a fair chance to be one of the AL’s top 10 outfielders for the balance of the year.

Pitchers

BUY

Kevin Slowey, SP, Twins: The Brad Radke comparison still works, though Slowey has a higher strikeout upside and will probably keep the ball in the park a little more often. I’ve watched every Slowey start since early May and I’ve seen promising visuals each time. He’ll be a $15 starter before the decade ends.

SELL

Erik Bedard, SP, Mariners: One step forward, one step back. He dominates the Padres, he gets hammered by the Yankees; he mows down the Red Sox, he can’t go four innings against Anaheim. Easy plan here – wait for the next 8-10 strikeout explosion, then work the phones until you've got a deal. The AL might be a tap-the-keg slow-pitch softball league, but Bedard’s reputation far exceeds the spotty returns he’s giving us.

Jon Garland, SP, Angels: He’s allowed three runs or less in his last six turns, and his heavy sinker keeps the ball in the park, but let’s not get too tingly: only two of those starts went for wins, and he managed just 13 strikeouts over those 40.1 innings. Even in weekly leagues where you look to stack up two-start options, Garland has a limited upside.

HOLD

Jered Weaver, SP, Angels: He admits he’s “pitching angry” again, trusting his own stuff instead of giving hitters too much credit. Keep him away from Arlington, but otherwise you should be dialing up Weaver in any of his West Coast stomping grounds.

---