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May 14, 2008

Baseball by the numbers: What is it that's killing our first basemen?

By Michael Salfino

Some succubus is sapping the strength of the league's first basemen, once upon a time the game's most feared sluggers.

The list of struggling players spans all ages: Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Pena, Carlos Delgado, Billy Butler, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Paul Konerko, Todd Helton, Jim Thome, Travis Hafner, Frank Thomas and David Ortiz.

While Butler is in his second season and thus doesn't have a track record to gauge, the rest of our first baseman/DHs all are well below their career averages in OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage).

Through Tuesday's action, only Giambi has an OPS this year over .800 – and he's hitting .194. Howard, Hafner and Delgado are all under .700 – about 20 to 30 percent under projections.

Hafner and Delgado also suffered through noteworthy declines last year. It's been speculated that these plodding power hitters have "old man skills," to quote Bill James. The theory says that big, bulky guys don't age well in comparison to speedy players. Hafner's most similar players from the past include Jim Gentile and Boog Powell, who hit 26 and 59 career homers, respectively, after their age 30 season.

But I'm skeptical. Delgado will soon turn 36 but had a number of great seasons after age 30. And some players comparable to Delgado, most notably Fred McGriff and Thome, had peak-OPS seasons past Delgado's current age.

Yes, the circus leaves town eventually for everyone. There's a good chance now that Delgado is done. The same for Thome (37) and, most clearly, Thomas (40 this month).

Many point the finger at steroids, or rather lack of them, given the testing program. But they've been testing for them for years now.

Plus, swings of 10 percent in league home-run totals are common throughout baseball history. In the modern context, that means any season homer total between 4,800 and 5,800 should be considered normal. Individual results will widely vary.

This year, there are more homers in the NL than the AL, for the second year in a row. The average AL team is on pace for 138 homers, compared to 154 in the NL. Both figures would represent declines near enough to 10 percent from 2007.

I quarrel less with those who assume steroids work than with those who assume steroid testing works. If the former is true (as it appears to be), players can make so much more money figuring out ways to keep using. And they have manufacturers and dealers helping them.
There's no economic incentive for the testers to adapt, since they get paid regardless of the test result. And do you believe baseball really wants the rash of positive tests that an evolving testing program might produce?

Another factor may be the very cold spring nationwide. Hot air is less dense than cold air and thus offers less resistance to the ball in flight. And since water vapor is lighter than air, humidity has no detrimental effect. So a change for these sluggers might come with the weather.

Buy

Ryan Howard, Phillies: His decline is being rationalized by his poor strikeout rate (33 percent of at-bats). But it was 31 percent last year. The power is down (19 percent of fly balls are homers, 28 percent last year). He's hitting .230 on balls in play (BIP), about 100 points less than in '07. Expect the power and BIP rates to revert to 2007 levels.

Travis Hafner, Indians: It always pays to go against the crowd when speculating on players. Everyone has written Hafner off. But it makes little sense to me, given that he's only 31 and was a monster in 2005 and 2006. If it's steroid-related, expect him to figure out a workaround soon.

Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: All indicators are dramatically down. He hit .378 with runners in scoring position two years in a row and now clocks in at .195. His home park is no worse than last year's for homers. The line-drive decline (21 percent to 12) scares me, but he's just 25.

Hold

David Ortiz, Red Sox: The power, as measured by our fly-ball stat, is down, for the second straight year. Last year, his BIP average was .355 (league average is .300). This year, he's 100 points less. In 2006, his BIP average was .270, but he hit 54 homers (which are not in play) and thus elevated his average. Last year's high average was a fluke. Expect 30 homers and 120 ribbies, though, given his great lineup.

Prince Fielder, Brewers: His wife, Chanel, better forget about converting him to vegetarianism. Fielder's stats this year are protein deficient – homers on 10.6 percent of fly balls versus 24 percent less year. Get him some bratwurst, pronto.

Sell

Paul Konerko, White Sox: I'd wait for the inevitable big game or, preferably, week. Then broom him due to his increasing ground-ball rate. He's up to about 50 percent grounders, which is extreme in the wrong direction for a supposed power hitter.

Posted by Mike McDermott at 11:48 AM to Salfino | Permalink

May 14, 2008

Baseball by the numbers: What is it that's killing our first basemen?

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